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Central PA Fall 2018


pasnownut

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13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Just wanted to stop by and give a congrats to you all in here.  Looks like the first advisory level event of the season is shaping up for most the the area.  If you're above 1000', you might pop a warning level event from this.  November events are like March events, only better.  We're at the start of the season, playing with house money and losing sun angle and daylight length each day.  Whatever happens, this will be fun because we're just at the start of the season.

It may not meet your 24" or bust criteria....but yep.....i'll take my slushy 1-2" and be good w/ it. 

Early season sure is nice.  No doubt about it.

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Just now, pasnownut said:

It may not meet your 24" or bust criteria....but yep.....i'll take my slushy 1-2" and be good w/ it. 

Early season sure is nice.  No doubt about it.

I only care about high impact events.  If we got 6" - 10" of paste from DC to NYC and back through I-99 that weighed trees down, etc. it would count in my book.  Unique events like early or late season snow and Xmas snow also counts as a good event in my book.

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39 minutes ago, canderson said:

That $4.74 isn't going to get you much of a snowstorm (remember he has a daughter in college!). 

I like MDT to get 1.5" of snow/sleet mix. Falling as the sun sets only makes it more fun. If you're north, say State College and up, you probably end up with a plowable snowfall.

Giddy up, kids!

She's at Shipp now, going for her masters. She a GA in the sports dept. She's on their dime now :)!!!!!!  however, i'm not sure i even have $4.74. Between her and my wife. Heck the dog probably has more of my money then i do. :facepalm:

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45 minutes ago, canderson said:

That $4.74 isn't going to get you much of a snowstorm (remember he has a daughter in college!). 

I like MDT to get 1.5" of snow/sleet mix. Falling as the sun sets only makes it more fun. If you're north, say State College and up, you probably end up with a plowable snowfall.

Giddy up, kids!

A lot of times over the past few years I've noticed that you usually guess low on amounts, or at least lower than what I would guess, but I was thinking earlier this morning that 1"-2" at the airport seemed about right. I have a feeling that you'll end up being really close on that...

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Unfortunately that is a wise choice.  HP in NE would help CCB into eastern locals early in the game, but verbatim the evolution is wonky, and we lose the critical levels until the UUL pops and wind/levels again become more favorable. I'd pay with all of the moolah in Sauss's wallet for this to happen in a few weeks from now when December is rockin, cause this would likely lay down the goods.    

Since it is the first event of the "season" I would think they would be be putting a little more into the possibility of making sure people do not get caught off guard.  2-3" of slop on the road is still dangerous.  People do not like when they forecast 12-24 and we get nothing but forecasting 2-4 when only 1-2 falls is not going to make anyone angry :-).

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26 minutes ago, Festus said:

Still a lot of leaves on the trees around these parts.  A couple of inches of paste could be a problem like we had in October a few years ago.

I think we're kinda behind with the leaves changing / dropping. You're right though, still a lot. 

i was thinking on Saturday when we had the wind, all these leaves blowing around and all the drains are now blocked with leaves could cause some ponding issues on the roads. Crews haven't had time to clean them up. 

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

New NAM has you all starting as snow.  Cold trend continues.

You beat me to it.  Was just checking.  For a while now, we've looked to bookend wintery on this one.  If that UUL would just dive in, it would be more white than wet for us tainters.  We have to wait for that to get to the piedmont for the secondary to pop....and column to once again cool.  

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

You beat me to it.  Was just checking.  For a while now, we've looked to bookend wintery on this one.  If that UUL would just dive in, it would be more white than wet for us tainters.  We have to wait for that to get to the piedmont for the secondary to pop....and column to once again cool.  

00z EURO has greater than 50% chance of 3" of snow north of the turnpike.  ~50% of 6"+ north of Rt. 22.  If the afternoon runs hold true or get better, have to think a winter storm watch will pop up for the ridge and valley crew.

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13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

00z EURO has greater than 50% chance of 3" of snow north of the turnpike.  ~50% of 6"+ north of Rt. 22.  If the afternoon runs hold true or get better, have to think a winter storm watch will pop up for the ridge and valley crew.

Yeah I saw, but still think it a tall tale for SW/SE 1/3s of PA based on orientation. 

To your point, if the colder solutions continue to show up....I'll take my crow w/ Jamaican dry rub please.

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32 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

00z EURO has greater than 50% chance of 3" of snow north of the turnpike.  ~50% of 6"+ north of Rt. 22.  If the afternoon runs hold true or get better, have to think a winter storm watch will pop up for the ridge and valley crew.

cut those numbers in half and i could see that. 

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Somebody with the text forecast is all-in. This is for the lower end of Huntingdon county. 

 

Thursday 11/15

 100% / 6.2 in

Cloudy with snow. Some sleet may mix in. Temps nearly steady around 30. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 100%. 5 to 8 inches of snow expected.

Thursday Night

 100% / 1.8 in

A mixture of winter precipitation in the evening. Then snow mixing with rain at times in the overnight hours. Low near 30F. Winds NNE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precip 100%. Snow and ice accumulating 1 to 3 inches.

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