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Central PA Fall 2018


pasnownut

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Multiple roofs and structure collaps in southern york. 

 

21:28:56 11-02-18 box:  54-02  STRUCTURE COLLAPSE SOUTH FIRE TG  ,  BARRENS RD N@ PLANK RD , HOPEWELL TWP,    cross streets:    roof blown off, wires down  units:  FIRESTA54,E54-3,E45,TK54,EMSSTA54,EMSSTA102-6,A54-2,MICU58 [2128] (112)

CAD2BDC4-F287-4DDA-989B-1929E63A6F88.jpeg

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42 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

So not much activity in my thread, but gfs was showing a couple of possible winter weather threats late next week.

 

always exciting to start tracking the first threats of the year.

Yea looks like we can start tracking late next week - probably for naught but it beats the summer! 

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13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

With 1.49" rain through 9:05 pm, Harrisburg's total precipitation for 2018 has reached 54.26". As a result, 2018 surpasses 1975, when 54.22" precipitation was recorded, to become Harrisburg's 5th wettest year on record.

MDT added an additional .5” between 9 p.m. and midnight to finish the day at 1.96”. 

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

You were in Bogata - my mother was born there. That’s one of the most out-of-the-way, why-the-hell-does-anyone-live-here places in this country.

I was, and it is...lol. But they have a Walmart, and a big plant (Kaytee) where I picked up bird seed. 

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On 11/3/2018 at 12:31 PM, donsutherland1 said:

I believe that 2018 is now the 4th wettest year on record at MDT.

You're correct sir.

We have moderate to heavy at times rain in the Harrisburg area. Its a good thing too, We went all of Saturday without a drop, we were starting to dry out.

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40 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

You're correct sir.

We have moderate to heavy at times rain in the Harrisburg area. Its a good thing too, We went all of Saturday without a drop, we were starting to dry out.

I was starting to think we were going to enter drought conditions...dodged a bullet I think... :P

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Well hello there, Eric...

 

Next week looks quite cold...perhaps more like early December than mid-November with high temps mainly in the 40s here in Lancaster...and in the 30s in the mountains. Saturday through Monday looks mainly cold and dry, before a jet stream amplification in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. Obviously it's way too early for details, but given the December-like look (as I see it)...this system could bring snow to parts of northern and western PA...and perhaps even a rain-snow mix here. Again, this system is 8 or 9 days away and so it's a very uncertain forecast--the above is my pattern-based speculation and NOT an official forecast! Behind this nebulous system will come another blast of unseasonably cold air lasting into the following weekend. --Horst

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Well hello there, Eric...
 
Next week looks quite cold...perhaps more like early December than mid-November with high temps mainly in the 40s here in Lancaster...and in the 30s in the mountains. Saturday through Monday looks mainly cold and dry, before a jet stream amplification in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. Obviously it's way too early for details, but given the December-like look (as I see it)...this system could bring snow to parts of northern and western PA...and perhaps even a rain-snow mix here. Again, this system is 8 or 9 days away and so it's a very uncertain forecast--the above is my pattern-based speculation and NOT an official forecast! Behind this nebulous system will come another blast of unseasonably cold air lasting into the following weekend. --Horst

Signal is there. Very interesting to say the least.


.
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25 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The best weather news of the day was the latest Euro seasonal forecast that was issued today.

It shows a great winter pattern throughout the season. It features a ridge in the western US & a trough in the east, with signs of an active subtropical jet developing underneath.

thats just sexy talk right there.  Ive been away from the boards, but am liking what I came back to in everything from the short medium and long leads.  Baby steps gang but getting close enough to start thinking it could be the real deal.  

:snowing:

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FWIW, 0z GFS op says favored snow spots see a little flakage on the back side of the LP  passage.  Unfortunately verbatim, it wont happen during the storm as 850's are toast, and precip is gone by the time they become favorable.  as is the norm, I'd think that during more intense precip rates, that column might just support catpaws in lucky spots.

Regardless the outcome, its still fun to be taking about a nice system like this.  Pattern is close, and were it 4 weeks later, i'd be moderately giddy.  

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I just watched DT’s winter preview video. He has below normal temps for our region throughout the winter. He also has our region at 200% of normal snow for the season! He said this is the first time in his 20 years of doing winter forecasts that he has had our region in 200% of normal snowfall category.  He thinks the pattern is set up to deliver snow to the east right through March.

I would sign up for over 60 inches of snow right now if DT’s forecast delivers!

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6 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I just watched DT’s winter preview video. He has below normal temps for our region throughout the winter. He also has our region at 200% of normal snow for the season! He said this is the first time in his 20 years of doing winter forecasts that he has had our region in 200% of normal snowfall category.  He thinks the pattern is set up to deliver snow to the east right through March.

I would sign up for over 60 inches of snow right now if DT’s forecast delivers!

ive read several winter forecasts stating almost the same, 150-200% of our normal. 

 

#believeitwheniseeit

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