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Tropical Depression Gordon

AbsolutZero

By AbsolutZero,
in Tropical Headquarters

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Gordon could end up microcane if that 850-700 mb vortex works down this evening and deep convection remains consolidated over it. Very small circulation. Though this is a fast mover and that will definitely make for a much weaker southern circulation, it's not the bad and high speed atmospheric environment in which Nate was imbedded.

 

Also, the satellite imagery of Gordon is matching up well with the radar presentation of the center location.   Warm spot on satellite imagery suggests that is the radar clear spot/center of Gordon as well.

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MJV

MJV

Posted
Posted

When I worked in Guam---we handled at least a half dozen of these --- faster-moving tropicals. Plenty of multi-layered vortices rotating around a broad but variable depth 850-500mb layer circulation.  From time to time---the mid-level 'swirl' deepens then a burst of convection ejects away and surface becomes outflow dominant for a time.  

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BlunderStorm

BlunderStorm

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

Please stick to the storm at hand. Gordon may very well end up a hurricane, but try to be realistic. It's going to be a small and compact circulation. It may go through RI but it won't be a Katrina, period. It just does not have enough time to get that large.

 

 

 

 

...and here I thought my expectation of a high end Cat 1 was sky high.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Severe time limitations are first reason, plus no modeling has it bombing into higher ranges.

As everyone knows, intensity forecasting is still the thing most prone to error, so modeling not having anything stronger than minimal cat 1 is not necessarily a guarantee that it couldn't get stronger.  It seems to me like the environment is quite favorable overall, with time being the main limiting factor... even so, it is over 24 hours until landfall and a small system like this won't be prone to the problems that we sometimes see with hurricanes approaching the northern Gulf coast.

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MJV

MJV

Posted
Posted

Last observation from Ave Maria on this passing system --- before signing off for the day. We never did achieve tropical storm force winds or gusts here --- and have received a total of 0.67" of rainfall (as of 415pm). Light rain at times and winds at/below 15mph between 4pm-425pm EDT. 

Kudos to Jakkel138 for his 1753Z RECON wind plot. That was very useful real-time information --- pertinent to the discussion at the time. Best Regards MJV

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted 
Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072018
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AND STORM SURGE WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 82.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM WSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended eastward to Dauphin
Island, Alabama.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from the Mouth of the Pearl
River to the Alabama-Florida Border. This warning replaces the
Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for this area.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Upper Florida Keys and from
Golden Beach to Chokoloskee, including Florida Bay, has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to Dauphin Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River
* East of Dauphin Island to Navarre

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach
* West of the Mouth of the Pearl River to east of Morgan City,
Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* Alabama-Florida Border to Okaloosa-Walton County Line

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning areas.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 26.2 North,
longitude 82.6 West. Gordon is moving toward the west-northwest near
17 mph (28 km/h) and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion is
expected over the next 72 hours.  On the forecast track, the center
of Gordon will move farther away from the southwestern coast of
Florida early this evening, and move across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico tonight and Tuesday. The center of Gordon will approach the
central Gulf Coast within the warning area late Tuesday or Tuesday
night, and move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and
Gordon is expected to be a hurricane when it makes landfall along
the central Gulf Coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches)
based on earlier reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Shell Beach to Dauphin Island, Alabama...3 to 5 ft.
Navarre Florida to Dauphin Island, including Mobile Bay...2 to 4 ft.
Shell Beach to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft.
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to
2 ft.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

RAINFALL:  Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches over the northwestern Bahamas, Florida Keys, and South
Florida through early Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches
are possible over the southern Florida peninsula.

Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6
inches over southern Alabama, southern and central Mississippi, and
southeastern and northeastern Louisiana, with isolated maximum
amounts of 8 inches through late Thursday.

These rainfall amounts may cause flash flooding.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue for the next few
hours in the warning area across southwestern Florida. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within portions of the central Gulf
Coast warning area by late Tuesday, with hurricane conditions
expected late Tuesday or Tuesday night in the hurricane warning
area.

TORNADOES:  A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight
across the southern and west-central Florida Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted 
Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072018
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Data from an earlier Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission, along
with Doppler velocity data from the Miami radar, indicate that
Gordon has strengthened a little more, with some these data
supporting an intensity of about 50 kt. However, since the earlier
5-n mi-diameter eye has eroded and inner-core convection has become
somewhat ragged, the initial intensity remains 45 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 300/15 kt. The latest model guidance
is still in excellent agreement on Gordon maintaining a west-
northwestward to northwestward motion for the next 48-72 hours right
up until landfall as a strong ridge to the north of the cyclone is
forecast to remain locked in place over the southeastern U.S. and
mid-Atlantic states. Although the guidance has shifted slightly back
to the left, no appreciable changes were made to the previous
forecast track since the models have been 'windshield-wipering' back
and forth over the past 24 hours. The new NHC track forecast is
similar to or a little north of the latest consensus models.

Overall, Gordon's presentation in both radar and satellite imagery
has steadily improved since the previous advisory. Although the
inner-core structure has eroded somewhat, outer banding features
have improved and now extend as far north as central and northern
Florida. The GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity models continue to
indicate that westerly to northwesterly wind shear of 10-15 kt is
expected to affect Gordon for the next 36 hours, a flow pattern that
would generally hinder development. However, the global models'
upper-level wind fields show Gordon remaining near or underneath a
synoptic-scale upper-level anticyclone, a more favorable pattern
that supports at least steady strengthening. Since Gordon will be
moving over very warm sea-surface temperatures of about 30 C, the
cyclone is forecast to reach hurricane strength in 24-36 hours, just
before landfall. For that reason, a Hurricane Warning has been
issued for portions of the central Gulf Coast. The NHC intensity
forecast is a little above the previous advisory, and is close to a
blend of the consensus models HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN.

Key Messages:

1. Gordon is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge and
hurricane conditions to portions of the central Gulf Coast where a
Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect. Residents
in these areas should listen to advice from their local officials.
All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion, as tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in
the warning areas Tuesday afternoon or evening.

2. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect southern Alabama, southern
Mississippi and Louisiana, where totals could reach as high as 8
inches. This rainfall could cause flash flooding.

3. Rainfall will continue across portions of South Florida and the
Florida Keys through early Tuesday, where totals could reach as high
as 8 inches.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 26.2N  82.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 27.3N  84.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 28.9N  87.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 30.6N  89.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 48H  05/1800Z 32.1N  91.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  06/1800Z 34.1N  93.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  07/1800Z 35.5N  94.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/1800Z 38.2N  94.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Calderon

Calderon

Posted
Posted

I'll have a front row seat being stationed at Keesler AFB. I'm right on the Harrison/Jackson County line in unincorporated St. Martin, and D'Iberville that's next door already has a public sandbagging station set up and local public works crews have been recalled to start preparations here. 

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted

The last few frames on radar seems to show the core tightening up again and some eyewall convection to the North of the LLC. The track over the Everglades probably helped to tighten the core some which led to a temporary spike in organization. With low shear and warm SST in place I can’t see why at least some modest strengthening won’t occur over the next 24-36 hours.

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