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Meteorological Fall 2018 Banter

dmillz25

By dmillz25,
in New York City Metro

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Juliancolton

Juliancolton

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, psv88 said:

Funny that song was playing on the radio today, 60s tribute. Never heard it before today. 

I spend a lot of time playing the 60s XM channel when on the road... probably the most of any channel. It's all way before my time (even a little before my parents came of age), but some of the stuff sounds so good with such hard-hitting lyrics that it may as well have been written yesterday. I mean, you have acts like Lesley Gore or the Beach Boys that certainly show their age, but once you get past the "bragging about my fast car" and "my boyfriend made me cry" sub-genres, it's a legit decade for music.

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
On 10/11/2018 at 5:38 PM, Juliancolton said:

-15F on 1/7 and 93F on 6/18 for a 108-degree range here.

I'm trying to remember the greatest spread here in a 12 month period (doesn't have to be a calendar year).....the last time it actually got below zero here was the 1993-94 winter when it was -2 in January and it got above 100 a couple of times in the previous July, so it was 102 to -2 so a 104 degree spread.  We haven't had anything like that in the new millenium.

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gravitylover

gravitylover

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Besides 2011 what were the other ones?  In 2012 we had 8" of snow after Sandy in the first week of November.

It up it was pre Halloween not November. We even had trick or treating cancelled by the town here because they felt it was too dangerous for people to be out on the streets with all the trees and branches down.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Besides 2011 what were the other ones?  In 2012 we had 8" of snow after Sandy in the first week of November.

The 10-29-08 mostly elevation event. 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
140 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2008

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE STORM 
THAT AFFECTED OUR REGION.  APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY 
DEPARTMENTS...COCORAHS...DEOS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN 
SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE 
ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/PHI

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL    TIME/DATE    COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL       OF
                     (INCHES)   MEASUREMENT


NEW JERSEY

...ATLANTIC COUNTY...
   POMONA                   T   250 PM 10/28   ACY INTL AIRPORT

...BURLINGTON COUNTY...
   WRIGHTSTOWN            0.2   300 PM 10/28
   MOUNT HOLLY            0.1   245 PM 10/28   NWS OFFICE
   CROSSWICKS               T  1048 AM 10/28  
   MOUNT LAUREL             T   420 PM 10/28 

...CAMDEN COUNTY...
   SOMERDALE                T   700 AM 10/29 

...HUNTERDON COUNTY...
   LEBANON               12.0   500 PM 10/28   AT 950 FT
   CALIFON                8.0   600 PM 10/28
   CHERRYVILLE            5.0   400 PM 10/28  
   HIGH BRIDGE            2.5   700 AM 10/29   COCORAHS
   POTTERSVILLE           2.0   700 AM 10/29
   READINGTON             2.0   700 AM 10/29   COCORAHS  
   CLINTON                1.7   300 PM 10/28    
   FLEMINGTON             1.0   700 AM 10/29  

...MERCER COUNTY...
   HOPEWELL               2.5   425 PM 10/28 
   LAWRENCE TWP           0.5   700 AM 10/29   COCORAHS
   PENNINGTON             0.5   700 AM 10/29   COCORAHS 
   EAST WINDSOR             T  1030 AM 10/28  
   EWING                    T   915 AM 10/28  
   HAMILTON SQUARE          T  1032 AM 10/28  
   MERCERVILLE              T  1052 AM 10/28  
   PRINCETON                T   900 AM 10/28  

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
   NEW BRUNSWICK          1.5   130 PM 10/28  
   EDISON                 1.0  1130 AM 10/28 

...MONMOUTH COUNTY...
   MANASQUAN                T   700 AM 10/29  

...MORRIS COUNTY...
   SCHOOLEYS MTN         12.0   420 PM 10/28   AT 1120 FEET
   MOUNT OLIVE           11.5   520 PM 10/28   AT 1000 FEET
   LONG VALLEY            8.0   420 PM 10/28   AT 1200 FEET
   FLANDERS               5.5   730 PM 10/28  
   LAKE HOPATCONG         3.0   730 PM 10/28
   RANDOLPH               1.5   700 AM 10/29   COCORAHS
   ROXBURY                1.5   700 AM 10/29   COCORAHS 
   ROCKAWAY               1.0   700 AM 10/29   COCORAHS  
   BUTLER                   T   730 PM 10/28  

...OCEAN COUNTY...
   TOMS RIVER               T   100 PM 10/28  

...SOMERSET COUNTY...
   HILLSBOROUGH           1.3   700 AM 10/29   COCORAHS
   BERNARDS TWP           1.2   700 AM 10/29   COCORAHS
   PEAPACK                1.0  1117 AM 10/28  
   BRIDGEWATER            0.7   700 AM 10/29   COCORAHS 
   BEDMINSTER               T  1045 AM 10/28  

...SUSSEX COUNTY...
   HIGH POINT STATE      14.0   400 PM 10/28  
   WANTAGE                4.5   420 PM 10/28   AT 1020 FEET 
   BARRY LAKES            3.0   725 PM 10/28  
   NEWTON                 2.5   730 PM 10/28  
   SPARTA                 2.0   725 PM 10/28   UP TO 5 HIGHER TRRN
   HARDYSTON              1.3   700 AM 10/29   COCORAHS
   LAFAYETTE              0.5   130 PM 10/28  

...WARREN COUNTY...
   HACKETTSTOWN           4.8   420 PM 10/28  
   HACKETTSTOWN           4.0   645 PM 10/28
   INDEPENDENCE TWP       4.0   700 AM 10/29  COCORAHS  
   ALLAMUCHY              3.0  1105 AM 10/28  
   BLAIRSTOWN             0.5   730 PM 10/28  
   STEWARTSVILLE            T   420 PM 10/28  

PENNSYLVANIA

...BUCKS COUNTY...
   RICHBORO               3.6   700 AM 10/29   COCORAHS
   JAMISON                3.0   230 PM 10/28
   PERKASIE               2.5   300 PM 10/28  
   CHALFONT               2.0   400 PM 10/28  
   FAIRLESS HILLS         1.5   736 PM 10/28  
   FURLONG                1.2   230 PM 10/28  
   DOYLESTOWN             1.0   130 PM 10/28
   NESHAMINY FALLS        1.0  1200 AM 10/29    
   LANGHORNE              0.8   230 PM 10/28  
   BENSALEM               0.5   230 PM 10/28
   SPRINGTOWN             0.2   700 AM 10/29  
   LEVITTOWN                T  1040 AM 10/28    

...CARBON COUNTY...
   ALBRIGHTSVILLE         6.0  1115 AM 10/28   ELEV. AROUND 1700 FEET
   JIM THORPE               T   700 AM 10/28  
   PALMERTON                T   700 AM 10/28  

...MONROE COUNTY...
   TOBYHANNA             16.0   700 PM 10/28   POWER OUTAGES
   POCONO SUMMIT          4.5  1100 AM 10/28  

...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
   MONTGOMERYVILLE        2.0   420 PM 10/28  
   SOUDERTON              1.5  1140 AM 10/28  
   WILLOW GROVE             T   700 AM 10/28  

...PHILADELPHIA COUNTY...
   PHILADELPHIA             T  1124 AM 10/28   NE
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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Yup, I had a foot of cement. It was a mess. We had no power for 6 days after Sandy then another 5 after the snow. 

Wow, I remember all three events now.  The 2008 elevation event where they had 6" in the Poconos and there was only a trace in the valleys and the historic 2011 event and the post Sandy storm that got us down on the coast too.

 

Funny thing with the 2008 event, Tobyhanna got 16" but Albrightsville only 6" so it was a latitude event as well as an elevation event!

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow, I remember all three events now.  The 2008 elevation event where they had 6" in the Poconos and there was only a trace in the valleys and the historic 2011 event and the post Sandy storm that got us down on the coast too.

 

Funny thing with the 2008 event, Tobyhanna got 16" but Albrightsville only 6" so it was a latitude event as well as an elevation event!

It was quite a run of record Northeast October into early November snowstorms from 2006 to 2012. The first big event was October 2006 around Buffalo.

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive2006-2007_a

Maximum Snowfall: Lake Erie 24" (Depew,Alden)

Duration: 16 hours +/-

Prime feature: Dramatic crippling out of season event. Unprecedented meteorological parameters.

Words cannot due justice to the astounding event which opened the 2006-07 season. Not only was it the earliest event by far (two weeks) of the over 120  in the 13- year record of our lake effect archive…but it was the most unique in regards to destruction of trees and power outages…directly because of its out of season factor. Almost a million residents of the Niagara Frontier lost power...some for as long as a week…and tree damage was the worst in memory…especially to the lush vegetation in the many historic parkways and parks in the Buffalo area.

The event was not particularly well forecasted…although its extreme parameters were noted all week and even mentioned six days ahead in forecast discussions. The depth of cold air was almost unprecedented for so early in the season and Lake Erie was a mild 62 degrees, three degrees above normal for October 12. Instability levels were dramatic with 850 mb to sfc delta –t’s of 24c or so…inversion levels were simply off the chart at 25k feet with omega and Cape values unprecedented for a lake effect event. The only question...and a big one…was whether the boundary layer could be cold enough to maintain snow with a flow off a 62 degree lake. It was initially assumed that there would just enough moderation for the bulk of this forecasted intense lake effect storm to fall as rain...with perhaps some graupel or wet snow inland…but by Thursday morning (12th) it was becoming marginal…and a Warning was issued early Thursday afternoon for 1-6” of wet snow, specifically because of the fact that most trees were still in full leaf….and the threat of serious damage and associated power outages.

The event began with lake effect rain during Thursday morning and midday…and enough cold air became entrained to change over the precipitation to wet snow in the Buffalo area by 3 pm. Still…little accumulation resulted for a few hours, but by 8-9 pm, reports of trees falling and power outages suddenly increased rapidly after 2-3” of snow, which was very wet and weighed down the trees. Conditions only worsened overnight with near constant thunder and lightning for a good 12 hours. Cloud tops reached an incredible 25-30k feet…about double we have previously observed in the worst events…this was directly attributed to the phenomenal uplift over the 62 degree lake.

The heaviest snowband set up across the North Towns Thursday evening…then drifted south to the south Towns around midnight…then lifted slightly to the city and eastern suburbs in the wee hours before lifting north across the North Towns again around daybreak and eventually to Niagara county Friday (13th) morning where it weakened and faded to rain as the dynamic cooling process faded and allowed the boundary layer to moderate.

It was apparent that the associated uplift and dynamic cooling was so strong that it overcame any attempt of boundary layer warming from the lake. There even may have been cooling near its edge because of this dynamic cooling as evident by lowering dew points at Cleveland, Erie and Dunkirk early in the event…perhaps a sign of air advecting into the lakeband from the land.

Even though plenty of damage resulted already in the first few inches, total snowfall in this event was simply unbelievable. 5 to 8 inches fell in the first phase of the event between 3 pm and midnight, but SWE ratio was around 6:1 or so…hence the terrific damage to trees and powerlines. The second phase featured slightly drier snow…maybe 12:1 but it piled up another foot in heaviest area…in just 4 hours or so.  The 22.6 inches recorded at the Buffalo airport not only blew away any October record (6” in 1909…only 4 falls of 2” or more in 100 yrs in October)….but was the 6th greatest snowfall ever at any time in Buffalo!

The crippling snows extended well across Genesee and Orleans counties, and pushed into extreme southern Niagara county...but there was a sharp cutoff to any damage, which ran along a line from Whitehaven Road on Grand Island to Wheatfield to Medina on the north, Leroy and Bergen on the east, and East Aurora and southern Hamburg on the south.

Governor Pataki declared a State Disaster Emergency in Erie, Genesee, Niagara and Orleans counties on Friday October 13. President Bush declared the four counties eligible for disaster assistance on October 24. (FEMA-1655-DR). By the beginning of December 2006, nearly $11 million in disaster grants and low-interest disaster loans were been approved. Over 400,000 National Grid and New York State Electric and Gas (NYSEG) customers lost power Thursday evening. Full restoration of power was not completed until 13 days after the storm with most regions being without power for about 5 days. Most area schools were closed for the entire week following the storm. One death was directly attributed to the storm. In Amherst, a man was clearing snow in his driveway when a tree limb broke off, fell and crushed him. Fourteen other deaths were indirectly storm-related. This number includes four people who died from carbon monoxide poisoning from the improper use of generators and kerosene heaters. Over two hundred were treated for exposure to carbon monoxide. Seventeen were treated for hypothermia. The seasonal timing and pre-conditions of the event only exacerbated the impacts. Only a couple inches of the heavy snow was needed to bring down the still fully leafed trees. In addition, the area had experienced a wet pattern prior to the storm. The wet ground made it easier for tree root systems to fail. Estimates to remove the debris from the storm is pegged at over $150 million. Over three million cubic yards of debris needed to be cleaned up. Local and State Departments of Transportation were not prepared for such an early storm. Most were still in paving mode and had not prepared their equipment to plow snow. The heavy snow also made driving even more difficult. About a hundred mile stretch of the Thruway was closed. Hundreds of motorists were stranded between Pembroke and Angola. Some of these people were stranded for twelve to eighteen hours. Other transportation issues included motorists not being prepared for winter driving and tractor trailers not using the proper fuel mix for the wintry weather. Most areas initiated driving bans and declared States of Emergency early in the onset of the storm.

Finally, all snow melted within about 48 to 60 hours with little flooding.

 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow that was the historic event that kicked off this new era.....funny thing is that 2007 was the same year the big dramatic change in Arctic sea ice started!

Yeah, the Warm Arctic, Cold Continents extreme snowfall began to ramp up around that time.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Is it normal for the Virginias to see their first snow before we do? Because they're going to Sunday morning.

Yes. Several higher elevation locations have already seen their first snow of the season.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/10/19/blast-winter-snow-likely-mountains-west-virginia-western-maryland-saturday-night/?utm_term=.cd8df4df6321

Davis has already witnessed its first snowflakes this year, on Oct. 13, just a day later than its recent average date of Oct. 12. The snow, however, did not accumulate.

Assuming accumulating snow occurs Saturday night, it will come a few days early. Davis’s average first measurable snowfall date is Oct. 24. If it receives an inch, it will be a week ahead of its first inch average date, Oct. 28.

Although this is likely to be the first measurable snowfall in parts of the high country in West Virginia and western Maryland, including the Deep Creek Lake in Garrett County, a few of the peaks in West Virginia saw some accumulation on Oct. 13.

“Above 4,500 feet there was about an inch accumulation on October 13,” said Bob Leffler, a retired National Weather Service climatologist and expert on the climate in the West Virginia high country, in an email

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