Meteorological Fall 2018 Banter

[Juliancolton]

7 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

I just have to chuckle at people that seem genuinely pissed that the south is getting a snowstorm. 

3 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Pretty painful reading the other thread and guys are pumped for the storm that we are not getting . Oh Well we'll get em not next time but soon enough

Heh.

Getting fringed by a few miles stings, especially in cases of last-minute shifts. We have none of that here... we're divorced spatially from the storm by 600 miles, and it was never on the table for our region. It's just so abstractified that there should be no emotion at all. Like watching a hurricane churn away at 130W in the middle of the Pacific. Why not just be happy for those guys? You know some 13 year old weenie in the CLT burbs is making memories to last a lifetime over the next 18 hours

[North and West]

Heh.
Getting fringed by a few miles stings, especially in cases of last-minute shifts. We have none of that here... we're divorced spatially from the storm by 600 miles, and it was never on the table for our region. It's just so abstractified that there should be no emotion at all. Like watching a hurricane churn away at 130W in the middle of the Pacific. Why not just be happy for those guys? You know some 13 year old weenie in the CLT burbs is making memories to last a lifetime over the next 18 hours

Agreed. It’s so infrequent there, hopefully some guys are having a blast. I’m happy for them. It’s fun and it’ll look like Christmas for a few days.


.

[forkyfork]

like we won't get crushed in february

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 hour ago, Juliancolton said:

Heh.

Getting fringed by a few miles stings, especially in cases of last-minute shifts. We have none of that here... we're divorced spatially from the storm by 600 miles, and it was never on the table for our region. It's just so abstractified that there should be no emotion at all. Like watching a hurricane churn away at 130W in the middle of the Pacific. Why not just be happy for those guys? You know some 13 year old weenie in the CLT burbs is making memories to last a lifetime over the next 18 hours

Julian don't get me wrong I said we will get ours,,,,,,,,,heck I have a buddy in Wilmington who is driving to Raleigh to see some snow,,,,,good for them

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

like we won't get crushed in february

I think we are crushed in January too

[Juliancolton]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

I think we are crushed in January too

Heck, I could be crushed tonight if I tried hitting up some of my tinder matches.

[Animal]

I checked the 240 gfs.

shows minimal snow in nw nj.

mountain creek has all snow guns blowing.

i am getting deeply truoubled of a no snow plow December.

Laugh all u want. 

[Animal]

4 hours ago, Rjay said:

I think we are crushed in January too

Going to take a blockbuster January to capture momma

[IrishRob17]

On 12/3/2018 at 6:10 PM, IrishRob17 said:

This is a set your dvr alert. This coming Sunday at 9pm the new episode of The Lost Tapes on the Smithsonian Channel is about the 1974 tornado outbreak.  

Bump

[495weatherguy]

13 hours ago, forkyfork said:

like we won't get crushed in february

Do you really feel that February will be snowy?  This particular comment from you caught my attention.  

[Rjay]

57 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Do you really feel that February will be snowy?  This particular comment from you caught my attention.  

Yes.   

[IrishRob17]

13 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Yes.   

Thanks Forky 

[495weatherguy]

36 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Yes.   

It’s ok.  You are one of the more knowledgeable posters/moderators on here.  I hope that these predictions do not come to fruition 

[Rjay]

31 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

It’s ok.  You are one of the more knowledgeable posters/moderators on here.  I hope that these predictions do not come to fruition 

Me > Bx

[Rjay]

55 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Thanks Forky 

Forky is my sock

[rclab]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Forky is my sock

 

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Forky is my sock

My compliments to your feet and please keep the flame low in the fireplace. As always....

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Me > Bx

Talk about low hanging fruit. 

[the_other_guy]

12 hours ago, Animal said:

I checked the 240 gfs.

shows minimal snow in nw nj.

mountain creek has all snow guns blowing.

i am getting deeply truoubled of a no snow plow December.

Laugh all u want. 

No one that does math will laugh.

 

This cold pattern has no snow.

 

14-22 look warm. 

That leaves just over a week for something to happen...if the forecasted cold returns.

 

The forecasts telling you about a stormy cold pattern the last week of Dec also said the snowblower would be running this evening.

 

You start running out of days in the month...

[bluewave]

Wilmington, NC getting closer to their first 100" year.

1-2 inches of rain has fallen in the past 24 hours across the area. another 0.5 - 1.5 inches of rainfall is forecasted through Tuesday morning. [Side note: As of 8am, year-to-date rainfall total at Wilmington is 96.85"] #ilmwx #scwx #ncwxpic.twitter.com/YjJ7DF7zLB

5:40 AM - 9 Dec 2018

 

https://www.weather.gov/ilm/Raceto100

2018 is already the wettest year in Wilmington's history.  The all-time annual record that stood for over 140 years was broken on September 16th during Hurricane Florence, almost three and a half months before the end of the year.  Every raindrop since then has continued to extend the record, which is now approaching 100 inches!  A few climate statistics will show just how unimaginable this year's rain has been.

• Wilmington's average annual rainfall: 57.61"
• Previous record annual rainfall:  83.65" in 1877
• This year Wilmington has recorded the most number of days ever with daily rainfall greater than 1.50, 3.00, and 4.00 inches.
• Total rainfall from just the 17 wettest days this year: 58.96" --more rain than in an entire typical year!
• 96 inches is eight feet -- the standard depth of the "deep end" of a backyard swimming pool

Why has 2018 been so wet? A large part of it was Hurricane Florence's record-breaking 23.02" of rain at the Wilmington airport September 13th through 16th.  This is the largest rainfall total from any single weather event in Wilmington's history, handily beating Hurricane Floyd's 19.06" rainfall total back in 1999.  According to NOAA Precipitation Frequency Estimates, that much rain falling at Wilmington in just four days occurs, on average, once every 1,000 years. 

A steady stream of non-tropical low pressure systems, cold and warm fronts, and daytime thunderstorms also brought well-above normal rainfall amounts in January, May, June, July, and November.  Most of North Carolina has recorded well-above normal rainfall this year.

Our local observations show the last five years (2014 through 2018) have all had above-normal rainfall in Wilmington, and are collectively the wettest five year period since records began in 1871. 

[BxEngine]

7 hours ago, Rjay said:

Me > Bx

We cant all steal our ideas from other forums

[BxEngine]

5 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Talk about low hanging fruit. 

Ive seen your pics. Only thing low hanging is your knuckles, neanderthal.

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, Rjay said:

Yes.   

Keeping in mind that it could be one megastorm and thats it, which is what sometimes happens in February and especially in el ninos.

[the_other_guy]

Fair point, but El Niños featuring one or two mega storms usually goes hand and hand with warm weather, especially in December.

This has been a cold, dry pattern. It will be interesting to see how the second half of Dec plays out.

 

[495weatherguy]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Keeping in mind that it could be one megastorm and thats it, which is what sometimes happens in February and especially in el ninos.

I would gladly accept one blizzard in February if the rest of winter was tame

[LibertyBell]

39 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Fair point, but El Niños featuring one or two mega storms usually goes hand and hand with warm weather, especially in December.

This has been a cold, dry pattern. It will be interesting to see how the second half of Dec plays out.

 

It's hard to come up with analogs just based off what we have seen so far.  It could be like 2013-14 if we see frequent storms with a closer to coast track and a lot of snow to mix scenarios for the coast.  Thats the one thing that gives me pause right now, we have yet to see any classic benchmark tracks.  Even our November snowstorm was a hugger.  Hoping that pattern changes.

 

I see 2014-15 being used as an analog too, which is interesting because that January 2015 snowstorm was frustrating as hell lol but we did get a historically cold and snowy February and even early March out of that winter.  What the January 2015 snowstorm was supposed to be was actually what the January 2016 snowstorm turned into- for us anyway.

 

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

I would gladly accept one blizzard in February if the rest of winter was tame

It should be better than that because weak el ninos tend to be colder even if they are not as moisture-laden as stronger ones.  You could see something like one big snowstorm and a few others where we get decent snowfalls but not the jackpot.  Weak el ninos usually bullseye eastern NE.  A winter like that was 1968-69 where we had the megastorm in February (the Lindsey blizzard) and a bunch of smaller events.  That was in a drier decade so one would expect the "smaller" events to be somewhat larger this time,  I could see us getting to Don's 50" projection with some combo of 2004-05/2013-14/2014-15.

I see 1977-78 and 2002-03 being used as analogs too and much as I would love that, I think we should consider the fact that the 1977-78 el nino was a second year event with the atmosphere already primed thanks to the previous year, and the 2002-03 el nino was a lot stronger (moderate-borderline strong) than this one is projected to be.

[JerseyWx]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

It's hard to come up with analogs just based off what we have seen so far.  It could be like 2013-14 if we see frequent storms with a closer to coast track and a lot of snow to mix scenarios for the coast.  Thats the one thing that gives me pause right now, we have yet to see any classic benchmark tracks.  Even our November snowstorm was a hugger.  Hoping that pattern changes.

 

I see 2014-15 being used as an analog too, which is interesting because that January 2015 snowstorm was frustrating as hell lol but we did get a historically cold and snowy February and even early March out of that winter.  What the January 2015 snowstorm was supposed to be was actually what the January 2016 snowstorm turned into- for us anyway.

 

That was the ultimate redemption storm lol.  Then, not to mention, last March we received another blockbuster storm.

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

That was the ultimate redemption storm lol.  Then, not to mention, last March we received another blockbuster storm.

Yessss that was redemption for many March failures- like March 2001!

I have a redemption storm for every wintry month lol

January 2016 was redemption for January 2015

Late February 2010 blizzard was redemption for early February 2010 fringe job.

March 2018 was redemption for March 2001

Boxing Day 2010 Blizzard was redemption for all the times we got screwed with rainstorms on Christmas (it would have been perfect had the Blizzard occurred a day earlier but you cant really complain when you get a surprise 2 ft blizzard so close to Christmas!)

 

For whole seasons, 1995-96 was redemption for the 80s and early 90s and 2002-03 was redemption for 2001-02.

 

 

 

[Juliancolton]

Anyone who thinks big December snows are a given, even in an epic winter, should be weenie tagged

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, Juliancolton said:

Anyone who thinks big December snows are a given, even in an epic winter, should be weenie tagged

Most are well above normal, as most know.  With the 11.6" that I had in November, I won't hit 'normal' for the season until 1/4/19, that is, of course, if I have zero snowfall between now and then.