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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2018 OBS Thread


Rtd208

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6 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

I'd rather get miss after miss (off shore) than cutter after cutter.

I'm the opposite. I'm not a snow person per se, but I am a go big or go home guy. That is, if it's going to snow, I want a big hit, not a nickel and dime event. That being said, I'd rather be warm and be on the rainy side than be cold enough and fringed to my south and east. It's less painful.

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4 hours ago, RedSky said:

Looking better for the Weather World call a couple weeks ago for a period of warmth possibly record so in the first half of December. I hope it's 75F.

 

 

 

Curious...what is their call for the 2nd half of Dec? Colder I presume like the majority of other outlets I have read? Most data I am looking at has us averaging AN generally thru at least mid Dec. BN days are one and done mostly. Pattern looks continual.

gfs-ens_T850a_us_65.png

gem-ens_T850a_us_65.png

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13 hours ago, Voyager said:

I'm the opposite. I'm not a snow person per se, but I am a go big or go home guy. That is, if it's going to snow, I want a big hit, not a nickel and dime event. That being said, I'd rather be warm and be on the rainy side than be cold enough and fringed to my south and east. It's less painful.

I am in the same boat. The only way I am picking up overtime this winter is if it is a big storm. 

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9 hours ago, RedSky said:

Looking better for the Weather World call a couple weeks ago for a period of warmth possibly record so in the first half of December. I hope it's 75F.

 

 

 

Nah - very suspect - the US Government long range models have been brutal of late always overestimating the warmth. I am expecting a below normal 1st half of December with a warm up in the middle and cold returning around or just after the holiday....I am putting the finishing touches on my fearless winter forecast for the local paper and will share here when complete....hint much above average snow this season!

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Ended up with 0.62" of rain yesterday here in NW Chesco this brings the monthly total to 7.94" - trailing only November 1972 with 8.87". Also for 2018 YTD we are now up to 72.90" of w.e. in the bucket - good for #2 wettest year on coop records back to 1894. Trailing the wettest year 1996 (75.12") by only 2.22" - I would say we are almost certain to finish 2018 as the wettest year on record. 

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High today 39.2 and current temp of 33.9 is out low temp. This was out 17th out of 27 days this month with below normal temps. We will finish this month as the coldest November since 2014. This will make it 6 months with above normal temps and 5 months below normal so far this year.

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