E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2018 OBS Thread

[RedSky]

35 minutes ago, Bluescat1 said:

Water in the basement 3 times this year, last 5 years or so it has been dry.

[KamuSnow]

Rain has stopped here, 2.40" total, impressive little bugger!

[zenmsav6810]

1 hour ago, KamuSnow said:

I found one for about 1300$. Not in the budget at the moment though. 

Build our own!? Surely, Penn State taught me something in instrumentation class! https://www.instructables.com/id/Make-an-acoustic-rain-gauge-disdrometer/ 

[KamuSnow]

1 minute ago, zenmsav6810 said:

Build our own!? Surely, Penn State taught me something in instrumentation class! https://www.instructables.com/id/Make-an-acoustic-rain-gauge-disdrometer/ 

Ok, thanks! Probably make a good sleet detector too, which might come in handy in the middle of the night this winter unless it's windy. I'll put it on the to do list, lol.

[zenmsav6810]

Just now, KamuSnow said:

Ok, thanks! Probably make a good sleet detector too, which might come in handy in the middle of the night this winter unless it's windy. I'll put it on the to do list, lol.

I'm kind of serious about building one of these. I actually have a decent technical aptitude from my degree for this kind of thing. I really like the acoustic impact style instrument. Basically what would need to happen is to design a basic capacitive transducer which would get sent to a low band pass filter. The data could get sent along to a mic input onto a computer or something similar, a Fast Fourier transform is run on the data, creating a power spectrum density, that frequency data then gets sent to a mapping equation using the Marshall-Palmer or Ulbricht distribution. An averaging function takes place and the data is converted into "average" raindrop size.

[KamuSnow]

5 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

I'm kind of serious about building one of these. I actually have a decent technical aptitude from my degree for this kind of thing. I really like the acoustic impact style instrument. Basically what would need to happen is to design a basic capacitive transducer which would get sent to a low band pass filter. The data could get sent along to a mic input onto a computer or something similar, a Fast Fourier transform is run on the data, creating a power spectrum density, that frequency data then gets sent to a mapping equation using the Marshall-Palmer or Ulbricht distribution. An averaging function takes place and the data is converted into "average" raindrop size.

How sensitive would it be? Could you pick up drizzle for example? I read that the largest raindrop size is usually less than 1 cm.

[zenmsav6810]

Just now, KamuSnow said:

How sensitive would it be? Could you pick up drizzle for example? I read that the largest raindrop size is usually less than 1 cm.

Presumably, it could be a sensitive as one desires, it all has to do with how large and perfectly elastic the "membrane" collecting the raindrops are, how well toleranced the piezoelectrics in the system are, how tuned the low bandpass filter is, how accurate the frequency to size model is, and how well it calibrated. 

[Rtd208]

Up to 1.19" of rain for the day. 

[RedSky]

It's ripping here wow like a tropical storm

 

[RedSky]

Surrounded by a moat it's raining ludicrous speed 

 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.44" of rain since midnight.

Storm total 1.63"

[Hurricane Agnes]

Ended up with 2.2" of rain overnight that was pretty much done by midnight... That included almost 3 hours straight of near or just over 0.5"/hr rates.  I saw that the Schuylkill is pretty close to bankful and the Wissahickon had to have gone close to if not reached flooding along portions of the Lincoln Drive, maxing out at almost 6.5 ft (normally runs at about 2.5ft or less).  Monday we do it all over again (maybe not as much).

Currently 44 and mostly cloudy.  And as a note - there are still plowed snow mounds here and there.  That 15F froze them solid and now the rain has made them into glaciers.

[Rtd208]

Flood Watch in effect here from Monday morning thru late Monday night for the expected heavy rain.

[KamuSnow]

32 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Flood Watch in effect here from Monday morning thru late Monday night for the expected heavy rain.

Could put mby over 10" for November, currently at 8.80" after last night.

[Birds~69]

3 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

Could put mby over 10" for November, currently at 8.80" after last night.

I think you'll get it.

I remember when an inch of rain was a big deal...seems like nothing these days.

[ChescoWx]

With yesterday's 1.62" of rain here in Chester County we are now up to 7.32" of precipitation in November. This currently puts us at 6th all-time. We will likely move up to #2 all-time tomorrow passing 1963 (7.34") / 1932 (7.42") / 1907 (7.52") and 1986 (7.55"). this will leave us only trailing November 1972 when 8.87" of precip fell. Of bigger news is the increasing likelihood that we will pass 1996 (75.12") as wettest year on record here in the County. We are currently #2 already with 72.28" of rain so far in 2018. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

On 11/24/2018 at 9:50 AM, Newman said:

...and the SE ridge kicks up. 

I keep reading posts that as long as the AO is negative we will score BIG this winter. Not sure I totally agree with that theory but at least the LR ens show that anyway. Zonal flat ridge across USA with mean trof out west tho? Blech.

[The Iceman]

40 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I keep reading posts that as long as the AO is negative we will score BIG this winter. Not sure I totally agree with that theory but at least the LR ens show that anyway. Zonal flat ridge across USA with mean trof out west tho? Blech.

I think the models are useless past day 10 right now for LR forecasting. You said it previously, I am also concerned that when the atlantic looks good, the pac is crap and vice versa. We are going to need both to score in December imo. Next week is looking less torchy though imo. AN sure, I don't think we'll see huge departures though like previously thought. With the volatility of this pattern, we are going to see big changes past day 7 almost every run... very difficult forecast for december that's for sure. Could see it being a great start to the season or could see us getting shut out as well.  One thing for sure though is I believe it will be active storm wise, whether it is snow or rain will be the big ?. Need the NAO to go majorly - if we want the storm track further S/e. Right now, looks like cutter after cutter. With temps around normal. Exactly what I feared tbh...

[Birds~69]

38 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I think the models are useless past day 10 right now for LR forecasting. You said it previously, I am also concerned that when the atlantic looks good, the pac is crap and vice versa. We are going to need both to score in December imo. Next week is looking less torchy though imo. AN sure, I don't think we'll see huge departures though like previously thought. With the volatility of this pattern, we are going to see big changes past day 7 almost every run... very difficult forecast for december that's for sure. Could see it being a great start to the season or could see us getting shut out as well.  One thing for sure though is I believe it will be active storm wise, whether it is snow or rain will be the big ?. Need the NAO to go majorly - if we want the storm track further S/e. Right now, looks like cutter after cutter. With temps around normal. Exactly what I feared tbh...

I'd rather get miss after miss (off shore) than cutter after cutter.

[Birds~69]

Mod to somewhat heavy rain....big raindrops again.

[RedSky]

The woods here are not suppose to be a swamp but they are now, driving around yesterday I have seen houses surrounded by water. Have received approx 8" rain only going back to mid month. Seriously need to stop the over performing streak and not do over 1" today. 

 

[The Iceman]

Luckily today is looking like an under performer for most of SE PA. Don't think anyone will see an inch out of this based on the current radar which is good. Rain just began here in Trenton. Interestingly the HRRR, 3k NAM, and RGEM all print out 1-1.5" across lower SE PA into NJ. Will be interesting to see if they verify because right now, not looking too impressive.

[Newman]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I keep reading posts that as long as the AO is negative we will score BIG this winter. Not sure I totally agree with that theory but at least the LR ens show that anyway. Zonal flat ridge across USA with mean trof out west tho? Blech.

It's the Pacific that's killing us right now heading into the first week of December. 

The PAC jet extension is breaking down the west coast ridging extensively:

That kills any chances for a snowstorm for the 1st to the 5th.

Then the jet extension relaxes and we should have a better opportunity around the 7th-12th time frame:

Newest GFS shows the chances for a snowstorm around the 6th-7th:

 

 

[RedSky]

5 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Luckily today is looking like an under performer for most of SE PA. Don't think anyone will see an inch out of this based on the current radar which is good. Rain just began here in Trenton.

It was a wicked combination here with the weekend "mini cane" dropping 4-4.5" rain over frozen saturated ground some of said it's the worse flooding they have ever seen.

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, Newman said:

It's the Pacific that's killing us right now heading into the first week of December. 

The PAC jet extension is breaking down the west coast ridging extensively:

That kills any chances for a snowstorm for the 1st to the 5th.

Then the jet extension relaxes and we should have a better opportunity around the 7th-12th time frame:

Newest GFS shows the chances for a snowstorm around the 6th-7th:

 

 

I would look more at trends on the ens as opposed to a D+10 prog on a model that is to be retired in January due to inconsistencies and errors but that's just me. 

[Newman]

The AAM pattern we're in is really creating a hostile Pacific, as the GFS shows above. The jet extension should relax around the 5th-7th of December. 

Here is Isotherm's thought's on this as well:

Angular momentum removal in the sub-tropics via the MJO and GWO progression into suppressed AAM octants (as indicated by udiv propagation into Indian Ocean) will ultimately lead to a jet retraction event by week 2, following this current jet extension. The present negative FT will eventually manifest in the mid-latitude pattern in about 10 days. Implications are that the Pacific wave-train and jet configuration will acquire a somewhat Nina-esque appearance in the first 10 days of December. Blocking will be developing over the NAO/AO domains contemporaneously with a wavier/Aleutian ridge regime in the Pacific in the December 1st-10th period. Colder weather will return to the Northeast in the means by the second week of December due to the amelioration in Arctic/Atlantic signalling; however, the Pacific will be less auspicious initially.

[Newman]

12 minutes ago, Newman said:

The AAM pattern we're in is really creating a hostile Pacific, as the GFS shows above. The jet extension should relax around the 5th-7th of December. 

Here is Isotherm's thought's on this as well:

Angular momentum removal in the sub-tropics via the MJO and GWO progression into suppressed AAM octants (as indicated by udiv propagation into Indian Ocean) will ultimately lead to a jet retraction event by week 2, following this current jet extension. The present negative FT will eventually manifest in the mid-latitude pattern in about 10 days. Implications are that the Pacific wave-train and jet configuration will acquire a somewhat Nina-esque appearance in the first 10 days of December. Blocking will be developing over the NAO/AO domains contemporaneously with a wavier/Aleutian ridge regime in the Pacific in the December 1st-10th period. Colder weather will return to the Northeast in the means by the second week of December due to the amelioration in Arctic/Atlantic signalling; however, the Pacific will be less auspicious initially.

One last thing I'd like to mention building off of Isotherm's thoughts is that, even with the PAC jet retraction around the 2nd week, it doesn't mean that the storm chances will increase dramatically. The Pacific will take some time to regain a classic NINO look and it'll probably take until after the 2nd week of December for our first "real" threat. That doesn't mean we won't possibly see snow around the 2nd week of December, but the 15th and on will likely be the best time frame to gear up for snow, just in time for Christmas.

[Birds~69]

39 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Luckily today is looking like an under performer for most of SE PA. Don't think anyone will see an inch out of this based on the current radar which is good. Rain just began here in Trenton. Interestingly the HRRR, 3k NAM, and RGEM all print out 1-1.5" across lower SE PA into NJ. Will be interesting to see if they verify because right now, not looking too impressive.

I think the radar looks decently impressive w/yellows and some lite reds forming and moving our way.

Mod rain here but the clouds have lowered/darkened...53F

[The Iceman]

2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I think the radar looks decently impressive w/yellows and some lite reds forming and moving our way.

Mod rain here but the clouds have lowered/darkened...53F

Looks like it is racing and isn't that large of a precip field. May only last 2-3 hours though that may be enough with the oranges and yellows that have filled in the last hour.

[donsutherland1]

With 0.12" rain through 1 pm, Allentown's total precipitation for 2018 had risen to 60.04". 2018 is only the third year on record during which Allentown had picked up 60.00" or more precipitation.