Ralph Wiggum Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 EPS depict the concerns I had going into the LR....neg NAO retrogrades and develops into a mid lat ridge centered near the Miss river then progresses into a quasi SE Ridge with trof developing out West. Of course this isn't the be all end all for winter....probably just means we wait a little later into the month for a pattern reload which isn't necessarily a terrible thing. There is plenty of cold air building across the top which if the strat PV consolidation and progs hold any weight spell a bitter cold outbreak on our side of the N hemisphere somewhere around the 3rd week of Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Glancing at the overnight op models and LR ens basically status quo for this time of year as we go forward thru about the 2nd week of Dec. I realize and dont ever really expect much wintry weather before Christmas usually but what really concerns me is that when the NAO goes negative on the ops and ens we are still ending up with cutters and storms heading to our N and W. Maybe this is something that will change as we move further along in time and we can get redevelopment farther S and E...not sure. Just noting that these looks arent exactly working out yet timing-wise ie when the PAC looks good the ATL looks bad and vice versa. I'm not sure one or the other will do it for us durung this Nino year. We *probably* are going to need both sides working in tandem. With that said tho it is funny how we have had more frozen past 2 years during mediocre patterns and have basically had nothing to show besides cold temps during 'epic' teleconnection indices. I guess those epic looks are more for producing KU storms which goes to show just how difficult they are to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 It is a ways out there but a stretch of AN temp days looking more and more likely into early December. Beach day anyone? Would rather see this now than in January but certainly doesnt give me a warm fuzzy feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 For balance, the GFS family is faster to knock down the SE ridge thus more seasonal during the same time period so *maybe* this is a case of the Euro holding energy back in the SW and Plains and pumping that Eastern ridge in response (in error/bias?). Unsure if this was ever fixed with the Euro upgrades or not so just thinking out loud. As others have said....volatile pattern. Could be quite the roller coaster ride as we move thru December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Yeah I think we might actually torch the first week of December. The blocking diminishes, Pacific is hostile, and the SE ridge kicks up. But I think after a pattern reset we SHOULD be back in business by December 12th and on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Wow the temperature here has gone up 10 degrees in the last 2 hours, from 30 to 40F. Feels almost balmy out. The overnight low was 23F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 1 hour ago, KamuSnow said: Wow the temperature here has gone up 10 degrees in the last 2 hours, from 30 to 40F. Feels almost balmy out. The overnight low was 23F. Up to 44F here as of 12:10pm. Still have snow piles/mounds in parking lots.. Accu-weather super-mega-ultra-most reliable long range throws up a bone for Christmas Eve: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Up to 44F here as of 12:10pm. Still have snow piles/mounds in parking lots.. Accu-weather super-mega-ultra-most reliable long range throws up a bone for Christmas Eve: Still have some snow piles here too, although they might be gone in 2 or 3 days with the warmth and heavy rain in the forecast. I'll take snow and ice on Christmas Eve, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 The "blob" moving in as the cold air exits...45F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 I'm just gonna stop talking and let the models sort themselves out lol. Pattern recognition > models and right now the models are struggling mightily. If the latest GFS is right, we head into a fairly classic -EPO pattern heading into December. I'd like to reiterate what I did way back before the winter started - A favorable Pacific is almost always more welcomed than a favorable Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Thunderer here in Pottstown at 8:02pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Haven't been paying attention the past few hours, just looked at the rain gauge and 1.75" of rain since mid afternoon. Looked at the radar and no wonder. That's 8.15" for November and counting. Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Been out driving/shopping (not my idea) and I've been getting hammered w/downpours. (1.07" as of 8:50pm)...and the radar is still ripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Select rainfall totals through 9 pm: Allentown: 0.80"; YTD: 58.76" (4th wettest year) Atlantic City: 0.80"; YTD: 59.07" (3rd wettest year) Baltimore: 1.68"; YTD: 64.86" (1st wettest year) Harrisburg: 1.35"; 60.93" (2nd wettest year) Philadelphia: 1.13"; YTD: 53.36" (6th wettest year) Reading: 1.32"; YTD: 62.71" (1st wettest year) Wilmington, DE: 1.84"; YTD: 53.04" (10th wettest year) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just had the highest wind gust of 2018 here in Sea Isle City NJ with a ENE gust at 54 mph. Pouring rain and 54.7 temp while back in East Nantmeal we have struggled to get out of the 30's but now up to 40.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 At 9:20 pm, Wilmington's daily rainfall had reached 2.13". That brings the year-to-date figure to 53.33". 2018 now ranks as Wilmington's 8th wettest year on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Maybe just me but the raindrops are abnormally large. Raining like hell now...ponding galore on the roadways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 2.07" so far here, with a little bit more to go. Turned out to be a vigorous little system just off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 The radar is incredible looking! If I didn't know better, I'd say there was a tropical entity off the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Heaviest rainfall rates so far right now...I can't see shiet driving and it sounds like a machine gun is penetrating the roof of the car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Atlantic City picked up 1.30" rain in the past hour and 2.11" for the storm. As a result, Atlantic City has now reached 60.00" annual precipitation for the 4th time on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, JTA66 said: The radar is incredible looking! If I didn't know better, I'd say there was a tropical entity off the NJ coast. I thought that as well..it's kinda winding up and spinning off the coast it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 15 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Maybe just me but the raindrops are abnormally large. Raining like hell now...ponding galore on the roadways. If only one of us had an audio spectrograph mass disdrometer, that would tell us the rain drop size! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 11 minutes ago, JTA66 said: The radar is incredible looking! If I didn't know better, I'd say there was a tropical entity off the NJ coast. Yeah just looked my first thought it was tropical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Looking at the police reports I'm about 2 miles from here in Mont county.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 25, 2018 Author Share Posted November 25, 2018 Pouring here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 I swear it's much easier to drive in heavy snow than heavy rain. I can't see crap...glare and windows keep fogging up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 14 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: If only one of us had an audio spectrograph mass disdrometer, that would tell us the rain drop size! I found one for about 1300$. Not in the budget at the moment though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Water in the basement 3 times this year, last 5 years or so it has been dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 25, 2018 Author Share Posted November 25, 2018 Up to 0.94" of rain for the day and still pouring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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