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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2018 OBS Thread


Rtd208

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Some flurries North of here and also some streamers to the west that might clip NW Chesco later this AM otherwise looks like temps will likely slowly fall later this PM leading to potentially our 1st freezing temp of the season before midnight. If so our growing season will end after lasting 203 days - this is 28 days less than last year and would be our shortest growing season since the 188 days in 2013

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Probably wrong and I don't agree with it verbatim but the 6z gfs has a far NW burbs 'event' for Thurs-ish time frame. Looks like a sleet fest. Other guidance slower and less frozen. 

Yep guidance is hanging back a piece of energy off of the Tuesday storm. If the great lakes low gets out of the way and the High Pressure up north trends stronger, which typically happens, then an inland CAD event could take shape next week before a bit of a warm up to end November. I expect "winter" starts 2nd week of December, but looking at the MJO progression, we could see a trough back in the east by very early December.

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the 6z Euro has 9" of snow out here at KMQS with the end of week event....that is not likely. My WXSIM has a mix of wintry stuff to start Thursday AM and then over to a chilly rain with a 1/2" to 1" of snow/IP. The pattern does seem to want to keep noreasters forming....will be an interesting winter

 

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10 hours ago, RedSky said:

It would be all hands at battle stations for the second storm this week if it was a month later into the season, going to be a fun winter.

I have to go out to Phoenix as my mother needs help with things. If I can figure out/manage to stay out there until April, then it will be a fun winter. If not, then NASO much...

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Had 0.9" of rain Friday (high of 49), followed by the temps leaping off the cliff Saturday for a low of 32 at midnight (after a high of 46), and final low Sunday morning of 30 for a first freeze here (with a later high of 43).  This morning ended up even lower due to radiational cooling, with a hard freeze temp of 28. Dews have risen a bit out of the mid-20s since ~4 am and crispy frost has settled everywhere.  Currently 30 and mostly cloudy.

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5 hours ago, RedSky said:

Ok this is the new GFS, Houston we have a problem :lol:

fv3p_asnow_neus_20.png

Slp tucked tight along the coast. Going to be tough to produce along the coastal plain and I95. Could be flakes there to start and end but this scenario favors well NW burbs (even NW of you) and elevation. Majority of guidance now on board. Snowfalls this early generally dont bode well for a good winter but we'll see.

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Latest Wxsim with 6z GFS/NAM data has snow/IP to start on Thursday AM and then an off and on battle of precip types here in NW Chesco with the temp just above freezing for most of the event + plus over 2" of w.e. falling. This will no doubt change with the next run....by the way also showing a period of heavy snow next Sunday AM...

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My forecast at the moment would be:

Philly on SW to the coast C-2" at most of snow, mostly sleet so probably less, and then over to a chilly rain.

Philly on NW to the Lehigh Valley 2-4" of snow, to sleet and freezing rain, then ending as a chilly rain.

Lehigh Valley on NW into NE PA 4-8" of snow, then to sleet and freezing rain. Depending on low-level cold, storm may remain frozen throughout.

This all depends on initial onset of precip and how strong the low-level cold hangs on. I think sleet/freezing rain will be the predominant precip with the easterly winds off the coast in the mid-levels. In fact, my snow forecasts are probably too high but it's still 3-4 days away. The Ukie and Euro are much colder and snowier than the GFS and CMC.

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1 hour ago, LVblizzard said:

12z Euro went nuts for Thursday. Solid 4-8” plus freezing rain NW of I-95

Far far n and w. The euro has the slp west of philly. This isn't a snowstorm map imo especially for mid November. Slp tucked, another slp in the N Lakes region, hardly any semblance of a hp as the one there was is fading and pulling away. Someone will report accum snows no doubt but sleet will probably be more of a common report. That map has interior sleet/mix event written all over it and jives with most other guidance.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.png

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