Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2018 OBS Thread

Rtd208

By Rtd208,
in Philadelphia Region

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 847
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted

Cutter pattern upcoming. Hopefully this is just a fall feature and can shift when colder arctic hp starts influencing things. Still think cutters and tucked storms will be common this winter hope I'm wrong. Alot of folks releasing outlooks that are calling for the harshest winter since 2010 etc. I'm personally not seeing that tho. Feels and looks like fall today....gorgeous outside. Enjoy! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

Posted
Posted

Ended up with 0.28" overnight and 0.69" this morning (0.97" total) - the bulk of that with almost 1.5"/hr rates ~1:45 am.  The high, which was at midnight, was 66, which took an almost 10 degree tumble with the rain and held about steady until later this morning, when the back end of the front came through and dropped the temps down another 4 - 5 degrees for a low of 50.  Currently 56, partly cloudy, and plenty breezy!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

Made it down to 34.7F here last night, cooler than expected. Right now 47F and sunny, a beautiful day! Forgot about the time change last night until I saw how light out it was at 6:30 am.

My low this morning was 35 which was a bit surprising... although it shouldn't have been because the wind suddenly went calm late yesterday afternoon and the bottom fell out.

Currently 54 and not a cloud in the sky!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Newman

Newman

Posted
Posted

The colder water in the Indian Ocean is going to play big dividends this winter. If it persists, I don't see the MJO coming out of favorable phases 8, 1, 2 and 3 too often. Modoki continues to form, even saw a WWB earlier this week which will help build the SST's up a bit. Would like if the eastern areas of the ENSO were a bit colder. Long range shows trough in the east with chances of snow, even closer towards the coast. Scandi blocking is also evident and i would bet we see that alot this winter. I'm loving what I'm seeing heading into November and this winter at the moment.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
The Iceman

The Iceman

Posted
Posted
On 11/3/2018 at 11:18 AM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Cutter pattern upcoming. Hopefully this is just a fall feature and can shift when colder arctic hp starts influencing things. Still think cutters and tucked storms will be common this winter hope I'm wrong. Alot of folks releasing outlooks that are calling for the harshest winter since 2010 etc. I'm personally not seeing that tho. Feels and looks like fall today....gorgeous outside. Enjoy! 

I'm like 60% through my winter forecast and leaning the same way in my head... however I'm debating even including snowfall in my outlook as one storm can now produce an above average winter in the climate change era. I mean we could be largely right with the cutter and tucked theme, call for above average temps  below average snowfalll but one storm threads the needle and busts the snowfall. I think I'm just going to use precip instead... It's looking like an above average both temp and precip wise. We can win with that occasionally but we lose at least down here on the coastal plain 8-9 times out of ten in air mass battleground systems. In my heart though,I hope it is a 2010 redux and we can go back and bump troll these posts ;) 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, Newman said:

The colder water in the Indian Ocean is going to play big dividends this winter. If it persists, I don't see the MJO coming out of favorable phases 8, 1, 2 and 3 too often. Modoki continues to form, even saw a WWB earlier this week which will help build the SST's up a bit. Would like if the eastern areas of the ENSO were a bit colder. Long range shows trough in the east with chances of snow, even closer towards the coast. Scandi blocking is also evident and i would bet we see that alot this winter. I'm loving what I'm seeing heading into November and this winter at the moment.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

The hemispheric factors you pointed out are certainly encouraging. However, how they will actually play out in terms of real weather at the surface and not just a nice looking index is the key here. What I dont like that I continue to see over and over on the 500mb anomaly charts that have been there since Sept and continue to be shown in the long range are the WAR that continues to surface......where we generally want to see a 50/50 during the winter months is in fact a repetition of a transient WAR feature. With that said, the fact the this feature (for now) is transient when it shows up should allow for some chances as time moves forward. But as I alluded to in my outlook, this feature is going to give the coastal plain fits as we will get our storms but those couple of degrees that we rely on with a 50/50 aiding us irt LLC may in fact favor those far NW burbs where traditionally and climatologically it is colder/snowier. 

The other feature that is different than the past few years so far is the EPO feature or +PNA look (tandem). When we do see ridging out west and into Western Canada it has been getting easily squashed and displaced. In autumns past we have seen this feature being more of a persistent look and that allowed decent hints into the future of winter. Again tho, the feature is there sporadically.....just transient. So we will probably still get good looks during the winter, it will be a matter of timing. 

With the analog seasons I used in the outlook thread, those winters had some of the same looks but when we had out chances, the timing just never came together and snowfall was BN in those winters for PHL proper but far NW burbs fared better. I cant say (nobody can) for certain how the timing will pan out this year but if you blend those analogs verbatim with all things equal, I am definitely not sold on the "winter of yore" thing for the coastal plain. Farther NW will fare better. Inbetween zones will see more sleet/mix this year than 'normal' seasons. Very warm SSTs off the coast probably wont help and this is where out wam layer comes from during coastal storms which traditionally do the damage in flipping snow to sleet etc. 

So yes, some of the factors hemispherically that you pointed out do look decent as you noted, but how it all unfolds at the surface will be how we remember things come April 2019. We *should* see more storminess and moisture this year due to the Nino influence BUT there is alot more to it than just that alone. 

One final thing I have seen repeated since about early September has been cool Canadian HP taking hold and giving the region BN temps and blue skies for a period followed by brief warmups (AN) with cutter-style storms going to our West and subsequent piece(s) of energy breaking off and sliding off the SE or redeveloping and being tucked or slightly inland. It's early but havent seen anything favorable thus far irt to timing of key pieces at 500mb and the surface. This could and probably will change as we head into the colder months. For better or for worse? TDB. You guys know where I stand by now. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Newman

Newman

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The hemispheric factors you pointed out are certainly encouraging. However, how they will actually play out in terms of real weather at the surface and not just a nice looking index is the key here. What I dont like that I continue to see over and over on the 500mb anomaly charts that have been there since Sept and continue to be shown in the long range are the WAR that continues to surface......where we generally want to see a 50/50 during the winter months is in fact a repetition of a transient WAR feature. With that said, the fact the this feature (for now) is transient when it shows up should allow for some chances as time moves forward. But as I alluded to in my outlook, this feature is going to give the coastal plain fits as we will get our storms but those couple of degrees that we rely on with a 50/50 aiding us irt LLC may in fact favor those far NW burbs where traditionally and climatologically it is colder/snowier. 

The other feature that is different than the past few years so far is the EPO feature or +PNA look (tandem). When we do see ridging out west and into Western Canada it has been getting easily squashed and displaced. In autumns past we have seen this feature being more of a persistent look and that allowed decent hints into the future of winter. Again tho, the feature is there sporadically.....just transient. So we will probably still get good looks during the winter, it will be a matter of timing. 

With the analog seasons I used in the outlook thread, those winters had some of the same looks but when we had out chances, the timing just never came together and snowfall was BN in those winters for PHL proper but far NW burbs fared better. I cant say (nobody can) for certain how the timing will pan out this year but if you blend those analogs verbatim with all things equal, I am definitely not sold on the "winter of yore" thing for the coastal plain. Farther NW will fare better. Inbetween zones will see more sleet/mix this year than 'normal' seasons. Very warm SSTs off the coast probably wont help and this is where out wam layer comes from during coastal storms which traditionally do the damage in flipping snow to sleet etc. 

So yes, some of the factors hemispherically that you pointed out do look decent as you noted, but how it all unfolds at the surface will be how we remember things come April 2019. We *should* see more storminess and moisture this year due to the Nino influence BUT there is alot more to it than just that alone. 

One final thing I have seen repeated since about early September has been cool Canadian HP taking hold and giving the region BN temps and blue skies for a period followed by brief warmups (AN) with cutter-style storms going to our West and subsequent piece(s) of energy breaking off and sliding off the SE or redeveloping and being tucked or slightly inland. It's early but havent seen anything favorable thus far irt to timing of key pieces at 500mb and the surface. This could and probably will change as we head into the colder months. For better or for worse? TDB. You guys know where I stand by now. 

I agree with all of your points and can see your hesitance. However, I believe the +PNA and EPO region will feature a predominant ridging pattern on the west coast. The warmer waters in the North Pacific  should allow for a strong +PNA look throughout the majority of the winter, rather than having it be sporadic and transient. Just my opinion, however. One of my biggest concerns is the negatives out towards Hawaii. If the negatives pull west too much, then the western US ridge will be pulled too far offshore and the eastern trough will be oriented too far west in the Midwest and feature too many coastal hugging storms and/or deep interior show bombs. Basically where you see the EPS map above is where you want to see everything oriented. I would like to see -AO pop with blocking in the arctic region, trapping the trough underneath. However, the Scandinavian blocking should do the trick.

I love this look.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted

High today 57.2 - today may be one of our last above normal days for the remainder of the month. Increasingly good chance we finish November as the coldest one since 2014. Rain wise exactly 1.00" of rain fell over the last 2 days this brings us up to 2.93" this month and a whopping 37.26" just since July 1st! We are now only 7.23" behind the all-time Chester County record of 75.12" from back in 1996

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Newman

Newman

Posted
Posted

I think most if not all of us away from the coast will see snow in the 12-14th time frame. Whether accumulation occurs or not is still in the air but don't be surprised to see snowflakes next week. 

Courtesy of NSFW Weather:

AEF17BC5-D6F4-4E8E-9987-6B5EB0AD768D.png

I would say the purple areas is actual accumulation and the blue areas is snow falling and/or coatings-1".

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted

I am thinking that after our relatively brief turn to well below normal temps next week with the chance of some snow in the air (not accumulating)....I think a near normal Thanksgiving Week followed by an above normal final week of November. With Dec starting w/above normal temps. Really thinking December could open with well above normal temps kind of like 2012 but I don't think the above normal stretch will last as long as that December. More troughing in east by the 10th or so - hopefully in time to support a white Christmas....we can dream can't we?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted

1st 8 days of November have run +7.1 above average for NW Chester County - should see much of that vanish over the next 10 days with much chillier temps. Point and click from NWS has a high of 51 today...Wxsim says temps stay in the mid-40's. Will side closer to the WXSIM today with rain moving in by early PM with some virga already over the area this AM. Wxsim sees around 2" of rain by midnight tonight. This will continue our progress toward making this the wettest season since NWS Coop records for Chester County began in 1894. We are now only 7.23" away from the record of 75.12" set back in 1996.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...