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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2018 OBS Thread


Rtd208

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Afternoon forecast Sunny - Day one a fail 

Skies gradually went partly cloudy by around 1pm and now qualify mostly cloudy with a thin white overcast. Current satellite reveals a thick white overcast overspreading near half the country.

Mets explanation? Same thing has been happening for months. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Afternoon forecast Sunny - Day one a fail 

Skies gradually went partly cloudy by around 1pm and now qualify mostly cloudy with a thin white overcast. Current satellite reveals a thick white overcast overspreading near half the country.

Mets explanation? Same thing has been happening for months. 

 

 

Same here but I don't mind since my eyes don't like brightness and it's easier to see my phone outside...

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Even with today's midnight high of 59.0 we had our 3rd of the last 4 days of below normal temps. Looking at the Euro over the next 10 days every day is below normal with some well below normal temps by the end of the period. In fact looking at long range models we might be below average right through Thanksgiving....weather does have a way of evening out.

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4 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Even with today's midnight high of 59.0 we had our 3rd of the last 4 days of below normal temps. Looking at the Euro over the next 10 days every day is below normal with some well below normal temps by the end of the period. In fact looking at long range models we might be below average right through Thanksgiving....weather does have a way of evening out.

A weird way, at that.

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12 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Soared past the forecast high to 68F, 50/50 clouds and sun now 

 

 

3 hours ago, RedSky said:

Long range ECM and CFS  have us returning to a ridge after early November. Two and a half week cool blip then an indian summer to remember?

 

 

 

This weather is unusual and hard to forecast. So much for a white thanksgiving. The atmospheric eddies from these tropical systems are basically still playing out. Tropical cyclones are huge perturbations to general order of things. 

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Turned out to be a really nice day yesterday.  Low was 44 and high was 61 and breezy.  Light breezes kept up much of the night but then it went calm just after 4:30am and the temp bottomed out at 37, which makes me wonder what it will do Sunday night if we get similar radiational cooling.  Currently 40 and partly cloudy.

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8 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Turned out to be a really nice day yesterday.  Low was 44 and high was 61 and breezy.  Light breezes kept up much of the night but then it went calm just after 4:30am and the temp bottomed out at 37, which makes me wonder what it will do Sunday night if we get similar radiational cooling.  Currently 40 and partly cloudy.

Yeah I saw it was 43 at 4 am and it dropped to 37 here too. 38 currently, hopefully lot's of sun again today, although it's partly cloudy at best right now.

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4 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Yeah I saw it was 43 at 4 am and it dropped to 37 here too. 38 currently, hopefully lot's of sun again today, although it's partly cloudy at best right now.

Yeah it was 42 here at 4 am (48 @ midnight) and when the winds went calm, boom!  Right around sunrise ~7:15, I bottomed out.  Temp is moving up pretty quickly now.  Up to 43. DPs have been in the upper 20s/low 30s so the air mass means business!

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10 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Yeah it was 42 here at 4 am (48 @ midnight) and when the winds went calm, boom!  Right around sunrise ~7:15, I bottomed out.  Temp is moving up pretty quickly now.  Up to 43. DPs have been in the upper 20s/low 30s so the air mass means business!

Back down to 43F here now, temp. is falling fast. Prolly a frost here tomorrow morning...

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33 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Back down to 43F here now, temp. is falling fast. Prolly a frost here tomorrow morning...

Yeah it's down to 42 here.  Mt. Holly put up a Frost Advisory for the metro area including the city and there are frost advisories/freeze warnings lofted from southern Virginia all the way up to southern Maine (I know the season already pretty much ended further north than that though).  Wind went calm after around 6 pm and down it went!

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This morning's low temp of 38.2 was our 1st temp in the 30's this fall season with our last reading in the 30's back on April 30th. Our high today in Chester County was only 49.2 (avg is 62.4) - this was our 1st day with the temp remaining in the 40's since April 19th.  Currently down to 39.2 here with lower spots like Marsh Creek at 538ft and Glenmoore at 538 feet already down to 34 degrees....expect lower spots in the county to fall below freezing while those of us over 650 ft will stay above freezing overnight with only scattered frost

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15 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Confirmed frost on the car just after sunrise.  Still currently 35 here and turned the heat on this morning for the first time this season.

Years ago I put a new boiler in our 1st house and October 19th was the day we turned the heat on. Over the years that date has been pretty consistent give or take, although here ours has been on since Tuesday.

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3 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Years ago I put a new boiler in our 1st house and October 19th was the day we turned the heat on. Over the years that date has been pretty consistent give or take, although here ours has been on since Tuesday.

There is always that seasonal thing this time of year where I know by law here, apartment complexes are required to have the heat on by Oct. 15th but inevitably there is almost always a little cold-snap before then. lol   It's now up to 36 here. I was actually a bit surprised about this frost because earlier in the week, there was quite a bit more chatter about Sunday night, but haven't heard much if anything about Sunday's low and frost/freeze potential since.

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AM Low 36.1 (lowest so far this fall season) in East Nantmeal with some frost scattered across the Township this AM...but no freeze so the growing season continues for local farmers as we are now up to 181 days which on average should end over the next 7 days based on local records since 1894. With 5 of the last 6 days averaging below normal we are still running at 6.1 degrees above normal through yesterday

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