cyclone77 Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 Picked up 0.69" early this morning, and this evening so far. The storms in the area right now are extremely electric. Non-stop thunder right now, with occasional crashes as well. Looks like we're in for a very stormy night. EDIT: Up to 1.58" as of 9pm. Good shot at 3-5" tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted October 6, 2018 Author Share Posted October 6, 2018 3 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Picked up 0.69" early this morning, and this evening so far. The storms in the area right now are extremely electric. Non-stop thunder right now, with occasional crashes as well. Looks like we're in for a very stormy night. EDIT: Up to 1.58" as of 9pm. Good shot at 3-5" tonight. looks like training over you and right up the Rock River watershed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: looks like training over you and right up the Rock River watershed Yeah these downpours have been pretty intense. Up to 2.07". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 About to get in on heavy rain here. Flood watch is north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 I did very well in September with regard to heavy rainfall. I was pretty excited about the prospect of another multi-day deluge. The first week of October, however, has been a dud. A few days ago very heavy rain set up just north and now tonight it's setting up just south. In between, we've received squat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 Oh boy. I don't think this is the favored scenario at this point though. Moves through very fast, which keeps precip amounts somewhat in check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 Luckily for this area the fire hose bumped a bit north/northwest which has given us a break from the rain the past hour or so. Radar was looking a little scary a few hours ago. The rains will return later on, but should be progressive as the whole thing will be shifting southeastward. Looks like perhaps another inch at most now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 Only 0.67" here overnight. I thought Chicago would do better, but most of it passed north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 12 hours ago, Hoosier said: Oh boy. I don't think this is the favored scenario at this point though. Moves through very fast, which keeps precip amounts somewhat in check 12z GGEM shifted east some tracking the center through W OH bringing the heaviest rain to much of IN into SEMI. 12z GFS shifted west some basically tracking the center over the Apps giving the heaviest rain to OH. 0z Euro appears to keep it in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 10 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: 12z GGEM shifted east some tracking the center through W OH bringing the heaviest rain to much of IN into SEMI. 12z GFS shifted west some basically tracking the center over the Apps giving the heaviest rain to OH. 0z Euro appears to keep it in the SE. A faster US landfall should favor a farther west track, with a slower landfall favoring farther east. This thing really isn't even organized yet though and we'll have to see where the center ultimately forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 .85" last night in my backyard in Madison. Not a ton of rain, but it's been saturated for weeks here and just keeps coming. The area lakes are still less than a foot below the record level they hit a few weeks ago, so if we do happen to get any of the heavier rain in the next week it will be bad news and probably new records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 Just to illustrate the speed differences with the tropical system, here are the 12z model runs. Canadian is the quickest, with the GFS a tad slower and the ECMWF significantly slower. In fact, it hasn't even crossed land yet at 120 hrs on the Euro. Models are similar with speed through 48-60 hours. Given the time of year but more importantly the actual pattern in place with the trough/ridge combo steering mechanism, I'm not sure how it takes the ECMWF a full 3 days to move the system from near the tip of the Yucatan to the Gulf coast. Not saying it absolutely can't happen but it just seems too slow in this setup. As mentioned, a faster motion (if it occurs) should allow a farther west track through the OV because the trough will have made less eastward progress to act as a kicker/suppresser. Slower would favor farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Models have been insistent on keeping tonight's rains mostly west of here but radar trends sure don't look like it will stay west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 I picked up 1.57" yesterday and, especially, overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KM_F Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Only 6 tenths overnight, which is good. Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 0.19" here. Back to the 80s today, which will be 20+ degrees warmer than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Good agreement on the remnants of Sergio emerging into the southern Plains and bringing rain to the Midwest this weekend, although it doesn't look like an enormous rainmaker as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 There's another couple of hurricanes headed for our country and some of the Plains got heavy rain last night. The East just keeps getting wetter, the West just keeps getting drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 14-day precip analysis shows that some heavy rains and floods have happened over the central US. Kansas City may be breaking out of its drought. Localized floods happened in the southwest with Hurricane Rosa's remnants. I would think that SW Oklahoma and vicinity, Kansas City, and northeast Iowa into Wisconsin may have had floods within the past several days. Drought reductions are mainly centered on Texas, Oklahoma, and Missouri, and Arizona. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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