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Sept-Oct heavy rain and Flooding threat


janetjanet998

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Tornado touched down NW of Owensboro KY.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Paducah KY 415 PM CDT SAT SEP 8 2018 The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Spencer County in southwestern Indiana... North central Daviess County in northwestern Kentucky... * Until 500 PM CDT. * At 413 PM CDT, a tornadic thunderstorm was located near Rockport, moving northeast at 30 mph. A tornado touchdown was reported near Stanley Kentucky, where trees and power lines were blown down. A couple of other possible tornadic circulations were located just north and south of the primary circulation. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Rockport, Grandview, and Chrisney.

 

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3 minutes ago, weathernerd said:

Yesterday about 4pm on the west side of Indy we had about a 10min span of very gusty winds, combined with the already saturated ground it was enough force to fell a 40ft ash tree on my property. Barely missed landing on my neighbors house and car. 

Yikes! We had a fairly stout ENE winds up here yesterday afternoon, but I also noticed a short period of VERY gusty winds late yesterday for short period of time.

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Topping out at 3.63" IMBY, looks like very light showers left for this afternoon.  ILN went with 4-6" for most of SW Ohio on Friday (with locally heavier amounts in bands) so I'd say close enough for government work.  Oxford just north of Cincy got 4" Thursday from storms ahead of this system, so I think they topped out near 8" for the past 4 days.

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  • 3 weeks later...
4 hours ago, janetjanet998 said:

the wet pattern has returned

GFS has the firehouse back (PW vales >1.75 in) and dynamics pointed to western portions of the sub forum for the next 10 days at least

 

WPC has 5 inches for Sourthn WI next 7 days

 

 

Yeah the trend is definitely there for substantial rains to set up again.  Today's GFS is even more impressive than yesterday's.  The Euro also shows very heavy rains.  Gonna be an interesting next week to 10 days.

2egffjp.jpg

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On 9/30/2018 at 10:13 PM, hlcater said:

Our rivers are still flooded at several gauges. We can't handle another deluge.

Waterloo rainfall so far this fall including 2 inches the other day

SINCE SEP 1     15.59                      2.91  +12.68

 

DVNHYDROLOGY  
  
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2018  
  
ONGOING RIVER FLOODING LOOKS TO ONLY GET WORSE DURING THE NEXT WEEK   
WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FORECAST EACH DAY, AND INDICATIONS OF THE   
WET PATTERN PERSISTING INTO WEEK 2. LITTLE CAPACITY EXISTS TO DEAL   
WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 30 WHERE STREAM AND   
RIVERS ARE FULL AND SOILS ARE NEAR SATURATION.  
  
IN THE SHORTER TERM, THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN APPEARS HIGHEST LATER   
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THEN AGAIN ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO   
SATURDAY.  
  
IN ADDITION TO RIVER FLOODING, BE PREPARED FOR FLASH FLOODING AS   
WELL. AS DETAILS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BECOMES   
MORE CLEAR, WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THIS HAZARD AS WELL.  
CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ARE   
SHAPING UP TO BE PRIME WINDOWS FOR FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES AT LEAST   
FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA.  

 

 

 

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47 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

With the rivers and lakes around the upper Midwest already as swollen as they are, I'm getting nervous for what's going to happen next spring if we get a lot of snow this coming winter.

This fall is reminding me of 2007. Hopefully we don't get a repeat of that winter or else it's going to be a very wet March/April for a lot of people.

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1 hour ago, hlcater said:

I’d be okay with this active pattern running into December/January to be honest. However, didn’t someone say that wet falls tend to lead to drier winters? Maybe it was cold falls lead to warmer winters. It was some sort of inverse correlation like that.

Cold falls especially cold early Octobers usually end up with warmer winters. As for activity, you want that soil moisture upstream from you for winter storms, so an active fall should be positive for winter.

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24 minutes ago, Stebo said:

If there was a way to give a negative chance of something happening, this would be it.

I mean, I kind of see why the model is doing that... there is a lot of interaction/phasing with the trough (deepens even more beyond that panel), but it's unclear if the timing will be right and even if it is, it would be a miracle to have it that deep.  You'd be talking like once in a lifetime.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

I mean, I kind of see why the model is doing that... there is a lot of interaction/phasing with the trough (deepens even more beyond that panel), but it's unclear if the timing will be right and even if it is, it would be a miracle to have it that deep.  You'd be talking like once in a lifetime.

Fine I'll bet a dollar if you are giving me 1 in a million odds.

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