Sept-Oct heavy rain and Flooding threat

[Hoosier]

18 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Flood advisories already posted for areas just north and west of me from today's scattered rains.  Flood watch out for central IL, IN and MO.   I can only imagine what will happen when Gordon's moisture hits the front, wherever that may end up being in a couple days.

I will be watching to see what kind of overall total and daily total that IND puts up.  There have been 42 days with 3"+ precip at Indianapolis, but only 11 days of 4"+.  This is a multi day thing of course but Saturday would appear to be the biggest day.  

[Hoosier]

I think I will take under on the bullseye

[Stebo]

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I think I will take under on the bullseye

OVER OVER OVER

but ya I am thinking the max someone gets is around 7-10" which in of itself is very impressive

[buckeye]

Rain is about the only type of weather I'll take a pass on when it comes to extremes.   I'm glad to see the euro in the 3-4" range...yea it's nothing to sneeze at but it also doesn't quite meet my threshold where I have to start camping out in the basement watching the sump pump and floor.       

[janetjanet998]

12z NAM North shift

Judging by what has falllen, current radar, and euro/Nam models

my Best guess, just for fun,is max amounts of 15 inches near Danville IL 

[Hoosier]

This is trying to tease me into taking a drive to the lake.  If the track doesn't shift too far south (taking the better wind fields with it), could see a window where gusts are near 40 mph on Sunday near the shore.  I'd definitely go if we were talking 50+

[janetjanet998]

Central IL into IND getting it good with convergence band 

[Indystorm]

Flash flood warnings out now for counties in east central IN this afternoon already.  Depending on training and where that front encounters Gordon's moisture this could be really significant in central parts of the Midwest.

[janetjanet998]

Euro south at hr 48.  Hits a brick wall in MO and moves almost due east  .. like gfs

[janetjanet998]

Note: medium range models now are more West with Florence and stall it out somewhere inland out east or southeast 

this may throw more precipitation back into the eastern Ohio Valley. Big wild card since it has been very wet all year plus Gordon coming first 

 

central il still getting it.  That band hasn’t moved 

[Indystorm]

Numerous reports of flooded roads across Muncie and Lynn IN. per LSRs.  And the moisture from Gordon hasn't really gotten up here yet.

[Central Illinois]

Numerous Flash Flood Warnings have just been extended for areas along I-72 in Central Illinois

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, janetjanet998 said:

Note: medium range models now are more West with Florence and stall it out somewhere inland out east or southeast 

this may throw more precipitation back into the eastern Ohio Valley. Big wild card since it has been very wet all year plus Gordon coming first 

 

central il still getting it.  That band hasn’t moved 

Florence is worth watching, especially for the eastern OV as you mentioned. The model trends have been farther south with landfall.  Given the strength of the ridge being progged and thinking back on some other anomalous ridge scenarios, I would be less surprised by more shifts south (say into GA or possibly even FL) than shifts northward up the coast or out to sea.

We would probably need a GA/FL landfall to possibly get more of the sub (other than eastern fringes) into the remnant game.  There were a number of Euro ensemble members into GA/FL and then tracking into the KY/OH area so all in all, it's way out in time but worth keeping an eye on.

[janetjanet998]

47 minutes ago, Central Illinois said:

Numerous Flash Flood Warnings have just been extended for areas along I-72 in Central Illinois

that band is developing more south and rates decreasing..models weaken it...some push back north near UIN

looks  like 5-7 inches in a thin area between ILX and SPI. assuming radar isn't underestimating rates 

no reporting station Under that max amounts but DEC at 2.49 since 7am as of 3pm... with 2 inches the past 2 hours

 

little  rain have fallen from I-72 south   

[snowlover2]

Just had the first of what will be many tropical downpours. Very torrential rain for about 20 minutes straight which likely dropped over an inch if not closer to 2. Some of the heaviest rain I've seen this year.

[Luftfeuchtigkeit]

28 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Just had the first of what will be many tropical downpours. Very torrential rain for about 20 minutes straight which likely dropped over an inch if not closer to 2. Some of the heaviest rain I've seen this year.

I know what you're talking about. We've been having those torrential downpours off and on for the last few weeks in Wisconson. They make me think, what, Wisconsin? Tropical downpour. In the flooding just west of Madison a couple weeks ago the state record for most precip in a 24 hour period was broken, believe it was 14" or more. Previous record was around 12". 

 

 

[bowtie`]

So far, 4.16 in the tippy bucket here at the house. Jives well with the radar estimation. Luckily the relatively dry soils have handled this four inches well. But if tomorrow or Sunday we do another four inches I would expect some water troubles in the area.

[Jackstraw]

From KIND Discussion...

Another point of concern for Saturday afternoon and night is the
potential for isolated tornadoes as the surface low moves into the
area. At the moment it appears that the southern half of the area
would be the most likely area to see this threat given the expected
path of the low, but this could change depending on the path. Will
mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

[janetjanet998]

south he goes...

At least it't not a winter storm 

models were jumping around

hits IN into OH good.  

[janetjanet998]

With luck this is possible 

 

IND records 

Maximum in 24 hours: 7.20 inches on Sept. 1, 2003.

and timing wise it might be on the same calendar day if it happens

unless it goes south

[janetjanet998]

The CMC has Florence  at 240 HR the same place it has Gordon at 24 HRS

GFS stalled on the east coast

[Hoosier]

34 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

The CMC has Florence  at 240 HR the same place it has Gordon at 24 HRS

GFS stalled on the east coast

Pretty bizarre coincidence with the Canadian lol

[cyclone77]

Looks like Gordon's remnants will track where pretty much all tropical remnants seem to track.  Downstate IL through IN/OH and points east.  It's always fun to entertain the possibility of seeing tropical remnants this far north/northwest when the medium-range guidance repeatedly shows that scenario, but it's pretty hard to take it serious unless the threat remains within 60hrs.  Seems like these things always pull more towards the right compared to what's modeled in the mid-range.  

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like Gordon's remnants will track where pretty much all tropical remnants seem to track.  Downstate IL through IN/OH and points east.  It's always fun to entertain the possibility of seeing tropical remnants this far north/northwest when the medium-range guidance repeatedly shows that scenario, but it's pretty hard to take it serious unless the threat remains within 60hrs.  Seems like these things always pull more towards the right compared to what's modeled in the mid-range.  

Too bad we don't have a big negatively tilted trough progged to phase with Florence after landfall.  That would have the potential to be a decent storm for the region (think something like Hazel in 1954 but farther west). 

[janetjanet998]

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
422 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2018  
  
DAY 1  
VALID 01Z SAT SEP 08 2018 - 12Z SAT SEP 08 2018  
  
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN  
ILLINOIS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND SOUTHWEST OHIO...  
   
..MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS  
  
AS OF EARLY MORNING, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL HAD BECOME  
ORGANIZED WITHIN AN AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT  
ACTING UPON TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT WAS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER  
SOUTHERN MISSOURI, ILLINOIS, AND INDIANA. A SYNOPTIC FRONTAL WAVE  
WILL MATURE HERE DURING THE SATURDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD,  
WITH LOW PRESSURE PLACED TO THE REAR OF 70-90 KNOT JET STREAK OVER  
THE GREAT LAKES AND DOWNSTREAM OF BOTH A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITING  
THE GREAT PLAINS AND THE REMNANTS OF GORDON LIFTING FROM ARKANSAS.  
THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH GORDON WAS BECOMING INSEPARABLE  
FROM THE BAROCLINIC WAVE FORMING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS  
ANALYZED WEST TO EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY / MISSOURI AND THEN BENT  
DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS - TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW. THE  
LOW IS FORECAST TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT DEEPENING THROUGH THE DAYTIME  
AS IT MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD.  
  
FOR DAYS NOW THE MODELS HAVE SIGNALED A PRONOUNCED HEAVY RAIN  
EVENT, AND THOSE TRENDS BECAME STRONGLY FOCUSED IN THE 00Z MODEL  
CYCLE. A SWATH OF AREAL AVERAGE 3 TO 6 INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED  
ALONG THE PATH OF GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS / FRONTOGENESIS TO THE  
NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, FROM VERY NEAR SAINT LOUIS EASTWARD  
TO NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INDIANAPOLIS, AND CONTINUING  
TOWARD THE NORTH SIDE OF CINCINNATI. THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER LIFT  
AND INFLOW IS COINCIDENT WITH THE VERY HEAVIEST HI-RES MODEL QPF  
SIGNAL - SOME SHOWING GREATER THAN 7 INCH AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN  
ILLINOIS EARLY TODAY. THAT PARTICULAR AREA HAD RELATIVELY HIGH  
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE, BUT THE SWATH THEN CROSSES AREAS OF WET  
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FARTHER NORTH INTO INDIANA LATER IN TIME.  
OVERALL, THE MODEL SIGNAL AND INGREDIENTS - WITH PW AS HIGH AS  
2.30 INCHES AND INSTABILITY FEEDING UP OVER THE FRONT FROM THE  
INFLOW DIRECTION - SUPPORT A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG  
THE LENGTH OF THE EXPECTED AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE GLOBAL MODELS  
HAVE SHOWN AN UNUSUALLY HEAVY SIGNAL, WITH AROUND 6 TO 8 INCH  
24-HOUR AMOUNTS FROM THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND UKMET, AND  
NOW THE 00Z NCEP HI-RES SUITE DEPICTING UNUSUAL COVERAGE OF 5 TO 8  
INCH AMOUNTS.  
  
WITH THE GREATEST DEEP LAYER LIFT BEING OFFSET TO THE NORTH OF THE  
FRONT AND NORTH OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT, THESE HEAVY AMOUNTS  
ARE LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE ON 3 TO 6 HOUR TIME SCALES. HOURLY RAIN  
RATES MAY NOT BE EXCEPTIONALLY HEAVY, BUT THE SLOW EVOLUTION OF  
THE SYSTEM WILL YIELD PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, AND WE  
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE BROAD ACCUMULATIONS OF AT LEAST 3 TO 6  
INCHES. THIS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 3-HR AND 6-HR FLASH FLOOD  
GUIDANCE, AND COULD LEAD TO SOME HIGHER-END IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY IN  
THE HIGH RISK AREA. SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS SUCH AS NUMBER 0800  
ISSUED EARLY THIS MORNING - FOR MORE DETAILED AND UP TO DATE  
INFORMATION.  
   

[Hoosier]

IND received 2.62" on Friday.

Max 3 day precip totals for Indianapolis with ending date listed:

 

8.29"  2003-09-02

8.26"  2003-09-01

7.23"  2003-09-03

6.80"  1895-09-06

6.80"  1895-09-05

6.80"  1895-09-04

6.27"  1872-07-18

6.19"  1872-07-17

5.78"  1987-07-01

5.73"  1873-07-04

 

[Jim Martin]

Models so far shifting a tad south. Still a flood risk for much of Northwest Ohio.

[snowlover2]

21 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

Models so far shifting a tad south. Still a flood risk for much of Northwest Ohio.

Just looking at radar, the heaviest rains appear to be headed along/south of I-70. Already 2" at least here and thinking 5-6" is easily doable.

[geddyweather]

31 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Just looking at radar, the heaviest rains appear to be headed along/south of I-70. Already 2" at least here and thinking 5-6" is easily doable.

Yeah, I-70 corridor and maybe even south of there will likely be the sweet spot. IWX has been cutting back the northern extent of their Flash Flood Watches. Would not be surprised to see more of that later this afternoon as the northern extent of the heaviest precip has not really come to fruition so far. 

[Indystorm]

Rain rates of 4 inches an hour reported in Clay and Richland counties in se  Illinois per flood warning.  Evacuations underway in Mt. Vernon IL area as well.