Sept-Oct heavy rain and Flooding threat

[cyclone77]

As expected Gordon's remnants will miss this area well to the southeast.  Very unusual to get tropical remnants this far nw.  I'd say maybe once in about 10 years estimating.  

Despite the rather ominous potential that this latest round of rains presented we came out with about the perfect amount of rain.  Just under 2" since Saturday.  Looking forward to the break in the heat and humidity in the next few days.

[KM_F]

Over 6" during that time period for me. We need a break, with some good old sunshine.

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[Megaforce]

Dry weather is very welcomed in my neighborhood. Record breaking times in southern Wisconsin. Check these rain totals out. 

[janetjanet998]

0z NAM seems to have that weak Vortex the RAP has...you can see it in the 850 MB wind fields off and on and it seems to wonder around  SE IA then into northern centraL IL the next 36 hours......dumping heavy rains before gordon..

now the 01 HRRR shows something similar in the sim radar returns over SE IA

The heaviest rains form Gordon fall just south of the areas mentioned above..so there is still no overlap...but its pretty close

 

[Hoosier]

Central IL gets nailed pretty good, and there would be some more to come after this especially east

[Chinook]

This situation is starting to remind me of the remnants of Tropical Storm Grace (2003) which made landfall in Texas as a weaker tropical storm, then the moisture kept moving along a stationary front, all the way from Texas to the Midwest to the Northeast. Rainfall values from  Aug 31-Sep 5 2003:

Toledo - 2.78"

Indianapolis: 8.29" 

Columbus: 3.24"

Dayton: 2.96"

Louisville: 3.71"

Paducah: 2.58"

[janetjanet998]

no surprise really but GFS south of the NAM...seems to be south of 12z/18z runs too

GFS weaker and has low near Paducah KY at HR84... NAM stronger and ENE of STL

 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Chinook said:

This situation is starting to remind me of the remnants of Tropical Storm Grace (2003) which made landfall in Texas as a weaker tropical storm, then the moisture kept moving along a stationary front, all the way from Texas to the Midwest to the Northeast. Rainfall values from  Aug 31-Sep 5 2003:

Toledo - 2.78"

Indianapolis: 8.29" 

Columbus: 3.24"

Dayton: 2.96"

Louisville: 3.71"

Paducah: 2.58"

I remember Grace.  It set the all-time daily record for precip for Indianapolis.   

[Hoosier]

00z Euro is significantly faster than 12z.  

[Hoosier]

Euro has a band of about 5-8" from northern Missouri to the Cleveland area.

Ratios looking like 1:1   

[janetjanet998]

DVN mentioning that vortex I was talking about

 

they are also disregarding the EURO

 

SUED AT 325 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2018  
  
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION RIPPLING SLOWLY E/NE TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO  
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR MAINLY RAIN/SHOWERS MUCH OF THE AREA GENERALLY   
SOUTH OF CID-FEP AXIS. SOME CONCERNS FOR SHARS (SUBTLE HEAVY   
RAINFALL EVENT) CENTRAL AND SOUTH, WITH SLOW MOVING VORT MAX   
POTENTIALLY STRENGTHENING DUE TO TIGHTENING BAROCLINICITY,   
PRESENCE OF VERY DEEP ANOMALOUSLY HIGH TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE,   
LIMITED/SKINNY CAPE, WEAK SHEAR AND LOW/SHALLOW EL. HEAVY   
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1+ INCHES LIKELY WHERE RAIN BAND STAYS   
ANCHORED AND TRAINING OCCURS WITHIN LLJ TRANSPORT AND CONTINUOUS   
FORCING...........

.........SOME CONCERNS ALSO   
EXIST THAT REMNANT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD STILL BE LURKING  
ABOUT AND RE-FOCUS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR RENEWED   
DEVELOPMENT AND HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY   
FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE HWY 30 TO HWY 20 CORRIDORS, AS BEING   
RECENTLY SUGGESTED BY HRRR. 

[Chambana]

Looking at the GFS ensembles they all seem to favor central Illinois for the heaviest rainfall, meanwhile the operational runs continue to favor southern illinois. 

 

Either way, a wide spread 2-5” of rainfall is nothing to sneeze at. Going to be an interesting weekend. 

[janetjanet998]

These SHARS events are low topped efficient rainfall events..often peaking at night..radar often underestimates rainfall rates..often not modeled well

3-4 inches down in place s NW of the IL river 

sparland IL 20 miles north of PIA 4.75 inches if its correct..they got trained by storms yesterday afternoon so it very well may be

 

 

[buckeye]

On 8/31/2018 at 9:27 PM, IWXwx said:

You're right about the short range models and the same thing happened in Southern IN this afternoon where a cluster of storms blew up and dumped heavy rains over a few counties this afternoon even though nothing was modeled. It's setup where if a butterfly flaps its wings.....

Early morning I fired up the HRRR to see what to expect for jobs today.   Showed scattered showers developing well north of us in early afternoon.   As I sit here at 10am cluster storms blowing up right over top and to our sw....latest HRRR still shows nothing.   

 

[janetjanet998]

rather large changes for the NAM...much faster ..but south due to almost due east movement..almost ESE

[janetjanet998]

models may playing catch up and change IMO

you can already see the outer circulation bumping into the front...

[janetjanet998]

3-4.5 inches now down NW of the IL river,  ,4 inches on the northwest side of PIA

a vortex is moving in from the west...HRRR weakens it but it looks robust ....could get interesting for me

also 12z GFS a tad north with Gordon

 

[Hoosier]

Canadian looks north of the NAM and GFS.

[janetjanet998]

EURO north again..not as far north as CMC

 

everyone seems to be playing catch up withe heavy rains from that vortex

 

with the more north path .Gordon may overlap this area later

 

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
152 PM EDT THU SEP 06 2018  
  
DAY 1  
VALID 1747Z THU SEP 06 2018 - 12Z FRI SEP 07 2018  
  
1800 UTC UPDATE  
  
FFG VALUES HAVING LOWERED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL  
TO NORTHEAST MO INTO FAR SOUTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST IL.  AFTER  
COLLABORATION WITH WFO LSX..A MODERATE RISK AREA WAS ADDED FOR  
POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE  
LOWERED FFG VALUE AREA.  ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS MAY DEVELOP LATE  
IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD...TOWARD 1200 UTC FRIDAY...THAT MAY AFFECT  
NORTHERN MO INTO NORTHWEST IL...WITH ADDITIONAL RUNOFF ISSUE  
POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.  

[Hoosier]

Tricky call around here, not in the sense of being in the heaviest band as that won't happen, but with how far north the lighter/moderate totals get.  Just enough lingering differences to cast uncertainty. Going to be fighting dry air, which gives pause.  

[Hoosier]

Euro with a bullseye of 12" near Terre Haute.  

[Hoosier]

Impressive to see these totals being modeled.  Sometimes the mesoscale/hi-res models will go nuts with double digits but we have been seeing it on some global runs.

[janetjanet998]

WPC about the same with precip amounts area wise as this morning dispite the north jog in the models and GFES mean

Odd.. no north jog

[Jim Martin]

18z NAM shifting north too this afternoon.

[Central Illinois]

I'm not sure why I cant post pics but the 18z NAM increased totals and the 3km showed a massive increase in totals

[Central Illinois]

18z GFS is North

[Hoosier]

Impressive for an ensemble mean

[Jim Martin]

58 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Impressive for an ensemble mean

The European Ensemble is similar to this map too.

[Chambana]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Impressive for an ensemble mean

Right on the bullseye. Only saving grace is that little rain has fallen over the last 10 days. 

[Indystorm]

Flood advisories already posted for areas just north and west of me from today's scattered rains.  Flood watch out for central IL, IN and MO.   I can only imagine what will happen when Gordon's moisture hits the front, wherever that may end up being in a couple days.