September Models and Pattern: The March to Fall

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, MJOatleast7 said:

countering this, it seems is Mangkhut barreling west into Asia as a Cat 4 ... not recurving .. usu correlated with a warm surge in the CONUS in about 10 days, no? That would put warmth into the last week of Sept.  - What the GFS is signaling.

Mmm... I think the GFS is signaling a +PNAP look - but I'm not sure what are your sources

[#NoPoles]

6 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

It'll facilitate the long term cooling trend of the northern hemisphere that should last until about January.

Jackass

[Damage In Tolland]

Another week of torch and dews . Leaves are already weeks behind 

 

[Brewbeer]

Leaves are weeks behind?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, Brewbeer said:

Leaves are weeks behind?

Hyperbole as usual lol. Not sure how much change I’ve ever seen here before late late into the month

[LurkerBoy]

48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Another week of torch and dews . Leaves are already weeks behind 

 

Why do you ride this so hard? Legitimately curious 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 hours ago, Brewbeer said:

Leaves are weeks behind?

There’s zero color anywhere . Usually by now you’ve got some color starting to show other than stressed out maples 

[rimetree]

Humidity has been persistent but not the likes of a couple weeks ago. I uninstalled last Saturday and haven't regretted it. My high the last seven days is 78 and my station tends to run a little hot.

[alex]

8 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Another week of torch and dews . Leaves are already weeks behind 

 

I don't know. They are changing quite rapidly here, seems pretty much on schedule. The 28F a few days ago should definitely help too

[Great Snow 1717]

8 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s zero color anywhere . Usually by now you’ve got some color starting to show other than stressed out maples 

Wrong as usual.

[Great Snow 1717]

4 hours ago, alex said:

I don't know. They are changing quite rapidly here, seems pretty much on schedule. The 28F a few days ago should definitely help too

Even in So. NH and northern Mass there are plenty of trees showing signs of color change. For example, I was in Andover yesterday and I had to take a different exit off of RTE 93 and most of the trees along the exit ramp had some evidence of the leaves changing color.

[Damage In Tolland]

24 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Even in So. NH and northern Mass there are plenty of trees showing signs of color change. For example, I was in Andover yesterday and I had to take a different exit off of RTE 93 and most of the trees along the exit ramp had some evidence of the leaves changing color.

No one reads any of your posts . Just letting you know so you don’t waste time

[Sugarloaf1989]

40 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Even in So. NH and northern Mass there are plenty of trees showing signs of color change. For example, I was in Andover yesterday and I had to take a different exit off of RTE 93 and most of the trees along the exit ramp had some evidence of the leaves changing color.

Getting some foliage change here as well. The main difference this year is very few stressed trees due too the excessive rainfall. Peak here is around 10/20 for the non Oak.

[Hoth]

2 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Even in So. NH and northern Mass there are plenty of trees showing signs of color change. For example, I was in Andover yesterday and I had to take a different exit off of RTE 93 and most of the trees along the exit ramp had some evidence of the leaves changing color.

Heck, I've got a few of the usual suspects turning down here already. But most won't start to go until mid-October anyway.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Heck, I've got a few of the usual suspects turning down here already. But most won't start to go until mid-October anyway.

Of course there’s the usual stressed out trees of which there’s many .. but my point was we are already pretty far behind in SNE. NNE is a different story 

[HoarfrostHubb]

I would say a week behind.   Not shocked.  A very warm and wet summer.  Why would they start turning early?

I hate this pattern

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

15 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I would say a week behind.   Not shocked.  A very warm and wet summer.  Why would they start turning early?

I hate this pattern

It’s breaking up big time in a week or so, but we will transition back n forth a bit.... Then Oct starts out chilly willy.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s breaking up big time in a week or so, transition back n forth a bit.... Then Oct will start out chilly. 

While there will def be a few fropas to knock temps near normal a day behind them.. I’d be careful of any Big switch to cool or pattern changes . Those westward moving typhoons scream a trough west , ridge east 

[powderfreak]

32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Of course there’s the usual stressed out trees of which there’s many .. but my point was we are already pretty far behind in SNE. NNE is a different story 

lol at pretty far behind already.  Normal peak is still a month away.  It always seems to start slow and then moves real fast once we get to Oct 1st.

[HoarfrostHubb]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

While there will def be a few fropas to knock temps near normal a day behind them.. I’d be careful of any Big switch to cool or pattern changes . Those westward moving typhoons scream a trough west , ridge east 

Sadly, I agree with this statement.    I just want seasons in seasons.   Maybe the end of the month we see a larger scale shift, but I’ve been waiting over a month already. I had thought, based on some of the longer range stuff, that we could be in the midst of that, but those were just pipe dreams.

[HoarfrostHubb]

15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

lol at pretty far behind already.  Normal peak is still a month away.  It always seems to start slow and then moves real fast once we get to Oct 1st.

The central NH area seems to typically peak right around Columbus Day, with my hood peaking almost a week behind

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s breaking up big time in a week or so, but we will transition back n forth a bit.... Then Oct starts out chilly willy.

Next weekend looks like it could be pretty fall like, especially Sunday. Pushing off fall activities until then 

[wxeyeNH]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The central NH area seems to typically peak right around Columbus Day, with my hood peaking almost a week behind

Dave,  Over the past years the peak for me in the NW Lakes Region is Oct 17th.  Everyone comes up for Columbus Day, and its colorful for sure but after the peeps head back south the real color wave happens.  2 years ago was spectacular.  Last year was fair.  Meanwhile, 3 bears have been hit this week by cars in my town and the towns right around me.  First the squirrels now the bears...one was roaming in my pastures yesterday

[OceanStWx]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Of course there’s the usual stressed out trees of which there’s many .. but my point was we are already pretty far behind in SNE. NNE is a different story 

So let me get this straight, no signs of color on stressed out trees, except the stressed trees that are showing color, and  SNE is pretty far behind, but NNE is totally normal. Got it.

[Bostonseminole]

14 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s zero color anywhere . Usually by now you’ve got some color starting to show other than stressed out maples 

wrong, I have color showing in some trees

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The central NH area seems to typically peak right around Columbus Day, with my hood peaking almost a week behind

Maybe.  I think of Columbus Day weekend as peak on Mansfield, while in town it's usually the week after.  

I think Gene's timeline is pretty similar to what I've seen in Stowe Village...mid-October but by then the 1500-2000ft+ elevations are toast.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

So let me get this straight, no signs of color on stressed out trees, except the stressed trees that are showing color, and  SNE is pretty far behind, but NNE is totally normal. Got it.

Huh? The stressed trees in SNE are showing. Like a pregnant belly. But that’s basically it

[Bostonseminole]

looks like we get some decent rains Tuesday from Florence, exact location TBD and then a nice cool weekend finally.

[OceanStWx]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Huh? The stressed trees in SNE are showing. Like a pregnant belly. But that’s basically it

I apologize for the false attribution, I missed the words "other than" in your stressed out maples comment.

Still I typically don't think of color showing until around my birthday (next weekend) and coastal Maine is much more like SNE than NNE.

We cooler temps but no frost, and sunny days for brilliant color. So it's been fairly warm overnight, I would expect some delay in that, but not pretty far behind. It's not hard to catch up this time of year, because the real driver is loss of daylight. 

[OceanStWx]

14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Maybe.  I think of Columbus Day weekend as peak on Mansfield, while in town it's usually the week after.  

I think Gene's timeline is pretty similar to what I've seen in Stowe Village...mid-October but by then the 1500-2000ft+ elevations are toast.

I look forward to stick season when I arrive in Stowe for the SLS conference.