JustinRP37 Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Here in the NYC region this drier air is taking its sweet time on arriving. Dew point this morning was still above 70 degrees. Down to 69 now, but you know it has been rough when you think 70 DP feels better. However, it looks like Monday we return to 70+DP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 season's first cold instability grapple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 On 9/5/2018 at 11:08 AM, tamarack said: That "f" word showed up in GYX's discussion as well. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High Impact Weather Potential: Low potential for frost in the mountains and points north Saturday Night...otherwise minimal. I anticipate the first sub-40 morning since mid June this weekend. Somewhere up here is going to see there first frost, Won't be here but i may have a shot at first 30's Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: season's first cold instability grapple Resorts should keep the units in the windows until Nov 1st, they say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 17 hours ago, snowman21 said: Sorry 'bout that. Was gonna just list the first orders, but didn't want to leave out anyone's favorite weenie radiating spot. Farmington, Maine (just 10/50/90%): Sept. 1/19/30, probably most similar to Newport, VT or Woodland, ME. My 20 years here, 1998-17: Sept. 2/17/26, and more tightly bunched than most locations - only 15 days separates 20% and 80% (9th/24th) and 17 for 20/90. Edit: Tip, did you mean "grapple" or "graupel"? PF might see some on the picnic tables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 47 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Resorts should keep the units in the windows until Nov 1st, they say. Keep em' installed until Jan 1 so there's no discomfort during the inevitable. high dew, pre-Christmas Grinch storm. Nothing worse than sweating through a screaming Sou'Easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 1 hour ago, tamarack said: Farmington, Maine (just 10/50/90%): Sept. 1/19/30, probably most similar to Newport, VT or Woodland, ME. My 20 years here, 1998-17: Sept. 2/17/26, and more tightly bunched than most locations - only 15 days separates 20% and 80% (9th/24th) and 17 for 20/90. Edit: Tip, did you mean "grapple" or "graupel"? PF might see some on the picnic tables. yeah that one You have to understand ...despite all protestation, I carry on a love-hate relationship with the art of "spellitry" anyway, that was intended to lean on the side of amusing more than anything else - obviously.. .But it was 300 or so hours out so - We can't really get a bead on the mid range ... Seems every cycle spins a new complexion for that D4.5 through 9 time frame - the latter half being more extended... The GGEM's 12z run decides to pin Florence over southern GA long enough to turn the near shore oceanic waters the color of turbid mud from the bible rains that surge forth... while driving 850 mb temperatures to 19C or even 20 for four straight days over top, circa ORD to PWM... So much for the 'back of summer is broken' in that run. This may be latest in the year I've ever seen this sort of geopotential height panache frankly, regardless of that stupid model ..regardless of this weekend's seasonal lie. The Euro out through D7 may not be quite as pig bum sultry in the 850s but if anything looks even more ridgy at mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah that one You have to understand ...despite all protestation, I carry on a love-hate relationship with the art of "spellitry" anyway, that was intended to lean on the side of amusing more than anything else - obviously.. .But it was 300 or so hours out so - We can't really get a bead on the mid range ... Seems every cycle spins a new complexion for that D4.5 through 9 time frame - the latter half being more extended... The GGEM's 12z run decides to pin Florence over southern GA long enough to turn the near shore oceanic waters the color of turbid mud from the bible rains that surge forth... while driving 850 mb temperatures to 19C or even 20 for four straight days over top, circa ORD to PWM... So much for the 'back of summer is broken' in that run. This may be latest in the year I've ever seen this sort of geopotential height panache frankly, regardless of that stupid model ..regardless of this weekend's seasonal lie. The Euro out through D7 may not be quite as pig bum sultry in the 850s but if anything looks even more ridgy at mid levels. What does this mean for sensible weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah that one You have to understand ...despite all protestation, I carry on a love-hate relationship with the art of "spellitry" anyway, that was intended to lean on the side of amusing more than anything else - obviously.. .But it was 300 or so hours out so - We can't really get a bead on the mid range ... Seems every cycle spins a new complexion for that D4.5 through 9 time frame - the latter half being more extended... The GGEM's 12z run decides to pin Florence over southern GA long enough to turn the near shore oceanic waters the color of turbid mud from the bible rains that surge forth... while driving 850 mb temperatures to 19C or even 20 for four straight days over top, circa ORD to PWM... So much for the 'back of summer is broken' in that run. This may be latest in the year I've ever seen this sort of geopotential height panache frankly, regardless of that stupid model ..regardless of this weekend's seasonal lie. The Euro out through D7 may not be quite as pig bum sultry in the 850s but if anything looks even more ridgy at mid levels. Seems like GFS, at least, does daily (even run-to-run) flip-flops, from "pattern is finally broken" to "here we go again." I'll just enjoy the weekend cool and hope Florence doesn't crash our woods tour on Thursday. (Currently looks to stay south, but lots of time to change.) I recall a 2-day field trip in 2005 on which the first half was done in heavy rain (had 2-3") from the remains of Katrina. The rain quit just after sunset and we then enjoyed several hours of mid-70s with 30 mph winds, not common after-dark wx in northern Aroostook County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 Not gonna lie...I haven’t been paying too much attention to the pattern the past week or so. I have been cheating and peeking at MOS and I know the numbers keep coming down for this upcoming week. High 80s and 70F dews at CON have become low 80s and lows either side of 60F. Maybe we end up with one really muggy night in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 If you want to laugh, check out th FV3 at 18z...the model eventually replacing the GFS. Just goes wild after day 10. PF would like that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 53/51, glad we live here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Well guess its time to close the pool this coming weekend. Fantastic summer but we on to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Tropical warmth and dews enroute again starting tomorrow night. Endless summer continues it seems . Nice taste of fall today before it returns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Tropical warmth and dews enroute again starting tomorrow night. Endless summer continues it seems . Nice taste of fall today before it returns And then it ends. 1 week left in the period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: And then it ends. 1 week left in the period Not as long as the ridge is there and the tropics are active pumping warmth north. Rest of this month certainly looks AN. This was likely the coolest period this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not as long as the ridge is there and the tropics are active pumping warmth north. Rest of this month certainly looks AN. This was likely the coolest period this weekend Yea we havent looked at EPS I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not as long as the ridge is there and the tropics are active pumping warmth north. Rest of this month certainly looks AN. This was likely the coolest period this weekend please let him be wrong....please please...I love the wx this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea we havent looked at EPS I see How’s that worked out since late July? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How’s that worked out since late July? Excellent, cane breaks the pattern dissipates the heat. Shots have been fired and summer has been wounded, tries to rally but suffers a mortal injury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 But it’s not just the eps. Everything is pointing to a shift to cooler temps and dews after the cane leaves the continent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Ok. We’ll see how the cool pattern works out I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: But it’s not just the eps. Everything is pointing to a shift to cooler temps and dews after the cane leaves the continent. 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ok. We’ll see how the cool pattern works out I guess Give it a week but its not really a cool pattern more like a normal. You have got to like how things are shaping up for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Heat this week looks more meh than we’ve had recently. It’ll be warm and humid, but nothing insane. Deep summer is slip slidin’ away, but fall warmth will linger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Swamp comes Tuesday for a day. 70+ dews return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Heat this week looks more meh than we’ve had recently. It’ll be warm and humid, but nothing insane. Deep summer is slip slidin’ away, but fall warmth will linger. Was in Groton Ct yesterday for my wifes softball tourney. Chilly rain fell in the afternoon, have to say it was the first day in a long time I was cold.This morning outside playing with the dogs was invigorating. Side note back surgery laminectomy Sept 26th ski season cancel, bummed but I fought it for 8 years since my accident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ok. We’ll see how the cool pattern works out I guess 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Give it a week but its not really a cool pattern more like a normal. You have got to like how things are shaping up for winter. I said ‘cooler’, not a ‘cool pattern’. Want to get that on record so when it’s 74/60 at BDL one day DIT won’t lose control of his emotions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: Heat this week looks more meh than we’ve had recently. It’ll be warm and humid, but nothing insane. Deep summer is slip slidin’ away, but fall warmth will linger. Getting 90s this time of year is rare but certainly 80s can be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Give it a week but its not really a cool pattern more like a normal. You have got to like how things are shaping up for winter. I do agree on winter. Think a biggie enroute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: so DIT won’t lose control of his emotions. That day is coming soon, when the same pattern that brings back warmth and dews also blocks Florence from a NE landfall. No hurricane of yore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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