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September Models and Pattern: The March to Fall


moneypitmike

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Man this is going to feel nice.

& Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/... as of 352 am EDT Wednesday...good consistency between 00z European model (ecmwf) and 00z GFS. Expansive Canadian high pressure cresting across Quebec will bring very pleasant/fall- like conditions to the north country for the weekend. Should see mostly clear conditions with highs in the 60s on Saturday. Excellent radiational cooling should bring lows into the low-mid 40s on Saturday night, and locally in the 33-36f range in the normally colder spots in the nrn Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. Should see areas of frost develop in these areas early Sunday morning.

That "f" word showed up in GYX's discussion as well.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High Impact Weather Potential: Low potential for frost in the
mountains and points north Saturday Night...otherwise minimal.

I anticipate the first sub-40 morning since mid June this weekend.
 

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Yeah ... okay. Nice weekend. This may be the first "shot across the bow," whether the models prove a tick or two cool biased at this range or not. 

But intoning one's post in hints of celebration over that transience is akin to an NFL Defense  jumping around and doing choreography for stopping a touch down when they're losing by 28 points. 

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17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ... okay. Nice weekend. This may be the first "shot across the bow," whether the models prove a tick or two cool biased at this range or not. 

But intoning one's post in hints of celebration over that transience is akin to an NFL Defense  jumping around and doing choreography for stopping a touch down when they're losing by 28 points. 

Its a nice weekend, nothing more nothing less.  You read far too much into every post these days lol.

You should write to the NWS too, as their tone probably was a bit too celebratory this morning.

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20 minutes ago, tamarack said:

That "f" word showed up in GYX's discussion as well.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High Impact Weather Potential: Low potential for frost in the
mountains and points north Saturday Night...otherwise minimal.

I anticipate the first sub-40 morning since mid June this weekend.
 

Will Estcourt Station hit the upper 20's ?

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18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ... okay. Nice weekend. This may be the first "shot across the bow," whether the models prove a tick or two cool biased at this range or not. 

But intoning one's post in hints of celebration over that transience is akin to an NFL Defense  jumping around and doing choreography for stopping a touch down when they're losing by 28 points. 

Intoning posts lol. It’s a great weekend ahead, that’s it, starting Friday....the ‘scoreboard’ to this point has no relevance.

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10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s like saying, “it’s been a terrible winter so far so folks enjoying the impending 12 inch snowstorm shouldn’t celebrate.” What is he smoking. 

Ha to be honest there are probably some posters here who couldn't enjoy a 12" storm if they knew it was going to melt in 3 days ;).  

But yeah hopefully no one enjoys this weekend because it will get hot again.

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8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha to be honest there are probably some posters here who couldn't enjoy a 12" storm if they knew it was going to melt in 3 days ;).  

But yeah hopefully no one enjoys this weekend because it will get hot again.

Right, and some wouldnt enjoy it because it’s not 30”. 

Don’t know where he gets the pyschonalysis from sometimes. Holy over-thinking. Some things are, just, what they are. 

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Ha to be honest there are probably some posters here who couldn't enjoy a 12" storm if they knew it was going to melt in 3 days ;).  

But yeah hopefully no one enjoys this weekend because it will get hot again.

I'm one of those... Unless the ski resorts are open. Otherwise a 12 incher is fun while it happens, but I want to use that snow! If I see 12 inches followed by 50s then I get sad thinking about how fun it would be to ski that powder. 

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6 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Intoning posts lol. It’s a great weekend ahead, that’s it, starting Friday....the ‘scoreboard’ to this point has no relevance.

Why be so defensive about that - I said, firstly, it's a nice weekend, and played an appropriate enough homage to it.  - you skip over that, huh 

People do reveal/expose what's really going on in their heads by the words they use, and the cadence/timing of their delivery ... at least to intelligent readers. You're focusing on "intone" is a defensive posture that only makes my point.

Okay, fine..so just my opinion, but the bigger canvas and more obvious weather-circumstance is not that petty transience of that passing high ..but the amazing persistence of this ridging.

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46 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Why be so defensive about that - I said, firstly, it's a nice weekend, and played an appropriate enough homage to it.  - you skip over that, huh 

People do reveal/expose what's really going on in their heads by the words they use, and the cadence/timing of their delivery ... at least to intelligent readers. You're focusing on "intone" is a defensive posture that only makes my point.

Okay, fine..so just my opinion, but the bigger canvas and more obvious weather-circumstance is not that petty transience of that passing high ..but the amazing persistence of this ridging.

The ridge is stubborn, yes. It’s been that way ever since DIT willed it from the eastern Atlantic two months ago. But 4 days of nice weather is a welcomed relief to many...no matter how many points we are down and the fact that we will effectively ‘lose’ the summer game. 

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The ridge is stubborn, yes. It’s been that way ever since DIT willed it from the eastern Atlantic two months ago. But 4 days of nice weather is a welcomed relief to many...no matter how many points we are down and the fact that we will effectively ‘lose’ the summer game. 

Yeah I'm lookin forward to it. But ... as to the metaphor, summer isn't losing the game in my mind until those heights stop bouncing back. 

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16 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I meant we (the coc team) lost the ‘summer game’ to the humid heat humpers. 

I think we got our metaphors crossed up ha. 

I'll tell ya what ... if it makes the weary worn summer suffers feel any better, that 00z Euro run contained the most coherent cooling trend at higher latitudes yet of this geriatric warm season.

The entire breadth of the Canadian shield ...above ~ the 55th parallel ... negates at 850 much more substantially over the course of the 10 days than we have seen in prior runs, perhaps a 'watershed model run.' 

By D10 much of the domain mentioned is around or exceeding  -10 C at 850 mb.  It's more definitive increase in areal coverage and mass of deepening temps...  Not sure what that registers in deference to climo and what not, but... for winter enthusiasts, arrows pointing down is probably the take-away. 

It may not be in any hurry to get down to our latitudes, of course.   It's doing this while trying to load up yet another ridge and warm episode over the Lake-Ne regions, too... (unreal).  

 

 

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It's our first - the  'shot across the bow'  ... 

I can imagine the north country will frost in the dales and hollows ..or wherever is favored.  Probably not down our way, but... wouldn't be surprised if ORE nicks 39 or thereabouts.  Might help encourage the foliage along up there...  Yes, the dimming sun is said to trigger that, but cold plays a part.  

I'm actually rather fascinating by the whole scale sloshing of the pattern... It tamps the ridge enough to side swipe us with that early polar high, but come this time next week...no trace of it...

 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's our first - the  'shot across the bow'  ... 

I can imagine the north country will frost in the dales and hollows ..or wherever is favored.  Probably not down our way, but... wouldn't be surprised if ORE nicks 39 or thereabouts.  Might help encourage the foliage along up there...  Yes, the dimming sun is said to trigger that, but cold plays a part.  

I'm actually rather fascinating by the whole scale sloshing of the pattern... It tamps the ridge enough to side swipe us with that early polar high, but come this time next week...no trace of it...

 

Yeah it is fascinating that we could see some scattered frost around with dews in the 30s on Saturday and lows in the 30s on Sunday morning...then be humid and damp by like Monday afternoon.

"A secondary push of cooler air and daytime planetary boundary layer mixing should drop 2-M dewpoints into the 30s for Saturday afternoon, so definitely an autumn feel to the air mass for the weekend. Looking for high temperatures mainly in the low-mid 60s for Saturday afternoon. Saturday night will feature lows in the low- mid 40s, except in the 30s across central/ern Vermont and in the nrn Adirondack region. Anticipate a low of 32f or so at kslk and Island Pond with patchy frost in the northern Adirondacks and Vermont's Northeast Kingdom."

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With all this talk about frost, guess it's a good time for our first frost date probability tables. Here are the 1981-2010 climate normals for SNE.

 

ID     STATION                            10%     20%     30%     40%       50%       60%     70%     80%     90%
-----  -------------------------------  ------  ------  ------  ------    ------    ------  ------  ------  ------
BARM3  MA BARRE FALLS DAM               AUG 27  SEP  2  SEP  5  SEP  9    SEP 12    SEP 16  SEP 19  SEP 23  SEP 27
BIRM3  MA BIRCH HILL DAM                AUG 28  SEP  2  SEP  5  SEP  9    SEP 12    SEP 16  SEP 19  SEP 23  SEP 26
HUNM3  MA KNIGHTVILLE DAM               SEP  2  SEP  7  SEP 11  SEP 15    SEP 17    SEP 20  SEP 23  SEP 26  OCT  1
WORM3  MA WORTHINGTON                   SEP  2  SEP  8  SEP 12  SEP 15    SEP 18    SEP 21  SEP 24  SEP 26  SEP 30
LNBM3  MA LANESBORO                     SEP  2  SEP  8  SEP 13  SEP 17    SEP 20    SEP 23  SEP 26  SEP 29  OCT  3
LXDM3  MA LENOX DALE                    SEP  6  SEP 11  SEP 15  SEP 17    SEP 20    SEP 22  SEP 25  SEP 28  OCT  1
WGMC3  CT WIGWAM RSVR                   SEP  3  SEP 10  SEP 14  SEP 18    SEP 20    SEP 23  SEP 26  SEP 29  OCT  3
ORE    MA ORANGE MUNI AP                SEP  5  SEP 12  SEP 17  SEP 20    SEP 22    SEP 25  SEP 27  SEP 30  OCT  3
BAKC3  CT BAKERSVILLE                   SEP  9  SEP 14  SEP 17  SEP 20    SEP 23    SEP 25  SEP 27  SEP 30  OCT  3
FVLC3  CT FALLS VILLAGE                 SEP  7  SEP 13  SEP 17  SEP 20    SEP 23    SEP 26  SEP 29  OCT  1  OCT  5
PSF    MA PITTSFIELD WB AP              SEP 10  SEP 14  SEP 18  SEP 21    SEP 23    SEP 25  SEP 28  OCT  1  OCT  4
AHRM3  MA AMHERST                       SEP  6  SEP 13  SEP 18  SEP 21    SEP 24    SEP 27  SEP 30  OCT  2  OCT  6
MHLC3  CT MANSFIELD HOLLOW LAKE         SEP  9  SEP 14  SEP 17  SEP 21    SEP 24    SEP 26  SEP 28  OCT  1  OCT  4
GBRM3  MA GREAT BARRINGTON 5 SW         SEP 10  SEP 16  SEP 20  SEP 23    SEP 25    SEP 28  OCT  1  OCT  3  OCT  7
GVLM3  MA GROVELAND                     SEP 10  SEP 15  SEP 19  SEP 22    SEP 25    SEP 28  OCT  1  OCT  3  OCT  5
AQW    MA NORTH ADAMS                   SEP 11  SEP 16  SEP 20  SEP 23    SEP 25    SEP 28  SEP 30  OCT  2  OCT  6
TLLM3  MA TULLY LAKE                    SEP 10  SEP 16  SEP 20  SEP 22    SEP 25    SEP 27  SEP 30  OCT  2  OCT  6
WMDM3  MA WEST MEDWAY                   SEP  8  SEP 14  SEP 19  SEP 22    SEP 25    SEP 28  OCT  1  OCT  3  OCT  6
BLAM3  MA BORDEN BROOK RSVR             SEP  9  SEP 16  SEP 20  SEP 23    SEP 26    SEP 28  OCT  1  OCT  3  OCT  7
NWPC3  CT SHEPAUG DAM                   SEP 12  SEP 18  SEP 21  SEP 24    SEP 26    SEP 29  OCT  1  OCT  4  OCT  7
WTPC3  CT WEST THOMPSON LAKE            SEP  9  SEP 15  SEP 20  SEP 23    SEP 26    SEP 29  OCT  1  OCT  3  OCT  7
NRNM3  MA NORTON WEST                   SEP  9  SEP 16  SEP 20  SEP 24    SEP 27    SEP 30  OCT  2  OCT  4  OCT  8
OXFM3  MA BUFFUMVILLE LAKE              SEP 15  SEP 20  SEP 23  SEP 25    SEP 28    OCT  1  OCT  2  OCT  5  OCT  8
KGNR1  RI KINGSTON                      SEP 10  SEP 16  SEP 21  SEP 25    SEP 28    SEP 30  OCT  2  OCT  4  OCT  8
BAF    MA WESTFIELD 2 NE AP             SEP 15  SEP 20  SEP 23  SEP 25    SEP 28    SEP 30  OCT  2  OCT  5  OCT  8
CMMM3  MA CUMMINGTON HILL               SEP 16  SEP 21  SEP 24  SEP 27    SEP 29    OCT  1  OCT  3  OCT  6  OCT 11
HAVM3  MA HAVERHILL                     SEP 15  SEP 20  SEP 24  SEP 27    SEP 29    OCT  1  OCT  2  OCT  5  OCT  8
MNDM3  MA MAYNARD 2                     SEP 14  SEP 19  SEP 23  SEP 26    SEP 29    OCT  1  OCT  2  OCT  5  OCT  9
NFKC3  CT NORFOLK 2 SW                  SEP 15  SEP 20  SEP 23  SEP 26    SEP 29    OCT  1  OCT  3  OCT  6  OCT 10
TAN    MA TAUNTON MUNI AP               SEP 15  SEP 21  SEP 24  SEP 27    SEP 29    OCT  1  OCT  3  OCT  6  OCT 11
BEDM3  MA BEDFORD                       SEP 18  SEP 23  SEP 26  SEP 28    SEP 30    OCT  2  OCT  4  OCT  7  OCT 11
BEVM3  MA BEVERLY                       SEP 18  SEP 22  SEP 26  SEP 28    SEP 30    OCT  2  OCT  4  OCT  6  OCT 10
BROM3  MA BROCKTON                      SEP 15  SEP 21  SEP 25  SEP 28    SEP 30    OCT  1  OCT  4  OCT  6  OCT 11
MVY    MA VINEYARD HAVEN AP             SEP 14  SEP 19  SEP 23  SEP 26    SEP 30    OCT  1  OCT  4  OCT  7  OCT 13
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BLLC3  CT BULLS BRG DAM                 SEP 19  SEP 24  SEP 27  SEP 29    OCT  1    OCT  3  OCT  5  OCT  8  OCT 12
DXR    CT DANBURY MUNI AP               SEP 20  SEP 24  SEP 27  SEP 30    OCT  1    OCT  3  OCT  6  OCT  9  OCT 14
FIT    MA FITCHBURG MUNI AP             SEP 19  SEP 23  SEP 26  SEP 29    OCT  1    OCT  3  OCT  5  OCT  8  OCT 12
LLLM3  MA LOWELL                        SEP 16  SEP 22  SEP 26  SEP 28    OCT  1    OCT  2  OCT  4  OCT  7  OCT 11
SBRM3  MA SOUTHBRIDGE 3 SW              SEP 21  SEP 25  SEP 27  SEP 30    OCT  1    OCT  3  OCT  5  OCT  8  OCT 13
WALM3  MA WALPOLE 2                     SEP 19  SEP 24  SEP 27  SEP 30    OCT  1    OCT  3  OCT  5  OCT  8  OCT 12
EBRM3  MA EAST BRIMFIELD LAKE           SEP 21  SEP 25  SEP 28  OCT  1    OCT  2    OCT  4  OCT  6  OCT  9  OCT 13
IJD    CT WILLIMANTIC WINDHAM AP        SEP 22  SEP 25  SEP 28  SEP 30    OCT  2    OCT  4  OCT  6  OCT  9  OCT 13
BED    MA BEDFORD HANSCOM FLD           SEP 22  SEP 25  SEP 29  OCT  1    OCT  3    OCT  5  OCT  7  OCT 10  OCT 15
BVY    MA BEVERLY MUNI AP               SEP 23  SEP 27  SEP 30  OCT  1    OCT  3    OCT  5  OCT  7  OCT  9  OCT 14
BRLC3  CT BURLINGTON                    SEP 22  SEP 26  SEP 30  OCT  1    OCT  3    OCT  5  OCT  7  OCT 10  OCT 15
EWB    MA NEW BEDFORD MUNI AP           SEP 20  SEP 25  SEP 29  OCT  1    OCT  3    OCT  5  OCT  7  OCT 10  OCT 14
PYM    MA PLYMOUTH MUNI AP              SEP 22  SEP 26  SEP 29  OCT  1    OCT  3    OCT  5  OCT  7  OCT 10  OCT 14
REAM3  MA READING                       SEP 22  SEP 26  SEP 29  OCT  1    OCT  3    OCT  5  OCT  7  OCT 10  OCT 15
TAUM3  MA TAUNTON                       SEP 20  SEP 25  SEP 29  OCT  1    OCT  3    OCT  5  OCT  8  OCT 11  OCT 16
DANC3  CT DANBURY                       SEP 24  SEP 28  OCT  1  OCT  2    OCT  4    OCT  6  OCT  9  OCT 13  OCT 17
BDL    CT HARTFORD                      SEP 24  SEP 28  SEP 30  OCT  1    OCT  4    OCT  6  OCT  8  OCT 11  OCT 16
LWM    MA LAWRENCE MUNI AP              SEP 23  SEP 27  SEP 30  OCT  2    OCT  4    OCT  6  OCT  9  OCT 12  OCT 16
MMK    CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNI AP       SEP 24  SEP 28  SEP 30  OCT  2    OCT  4    OCT  6  OCT  8  OCT 11  OCT 15
MIDM3  MA MIDDLETON                     SEP 22  SEP 27  SEP 30  OCT  2    OCT  4    OCT  6  OCT  9  OCT 11  OCT 16
FTFR1  RI NORTH FOSTER 1 E              SEP 24  SEP 28  SEP 30  OCT  2    OCT  4    OCT  6  OCT  9  OCT 12  OCT 16
NRWC3  CT NORWICH PUB UTIL PLT          SEP 23  SEP 28  OCT  1  OCT  2    OCT  4    OCT  6  OCT  9  OCT 12  OCT 17
HINM3  MA HINGHAM                       SEP 24  SEP 28  OCT  1  OCT  3    OCT  5    OCT  7  OCT 10  OCT 13  OCT 17
MTCC3  CT MT CARMEL                     SEP 26  SEP 29  OCT  1  OCT  3    OCT  5    OCT  8  OCT 11  OCT 14  OCT 20
PEAM3  MA PEABODY                       SEP 24  SEP 28  OCT  1  OCT  3    OCT  5    OCT  7  OCT 10  OCT 13  OCT 17
PLYM3  MA PLYMOUTH-KINGSTON             SEP 24  SEP 29  OCT  1  OCT  3    OCT  5    OCT  8  OCT 11  OCT 14  OCT 19
EFRM3  MA ROCHESTER                     SEP 23  SEP 28  OCT  1  OCT  3    OCT  5    OCT  8  OCT 11  OCT 15  OCT 20
       MA JAMAICA PLAIN                 SEP 25  SEP 30  OCT  1  OCT  4    OCT  6    OCT  8  OCT 10  OCT 13  OCT 17
STFC3  CT STAMFORD 5 N                  SEP 26  SEP 30  OCT  2  OCT  4    OCT  6    OCT  8  OCT 11  OCT 14  OCT 19
STRC3  CT STORRS                        SEP 24  SEP 29  OCT  1  OCT  4    OCT  6    OCT  9  OCT 13  OCT 16  OCT 21
ORH    MA WORCESTER                     SEP 26  SEP 30  OCT  2  OCT  5    OCT  7    OCT  9  OCT 12  OCT 15  OCT 20
EWAM3  MA EAST WAREHAM                  SEP 28  OCT  1  OCT  4  OCT  6    OCT  8    OCT 11  OCT 13  OCT 17  OCT 21
MLTC3  CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W                SEP 27  OCT  1  OCT  3  OCT  5    OCT  8    OCT 11  OCT 14  OCT 18  OCT 24
LWMM3  MA LAWRENCE                      SEP 28  OCT  1  OCT  4  OCT  7    OCT  9    OCT 12  OCT 15  OCT 18  OCT 23
WST    RI WESTERLY STATE AP             SEP 29  OCT  2  OCT  4  OCT  6    OCT  9    OCT 11  OCT 14  OCT 17  OCT 22
MQE    MA BLUE HILL                     SEP 29  OCT  2  OCT  5  OCT  8    OCT 11    OCT 13  OCT 16  OCT 19  OCT 24
HYA    MA HYANNIS BARNSTABLE MUNI AP    SEP 29  OCT  3  OCT  6  OCT  9    OCT 11    OCT 14  OCT 16  OCT 20  OCT 25
NZW    MA SOUTH WEYMOUTH NAS            OCT  1  OCT  3  OCT  7  OCT  9    OCT 12    OCT 15  OCT 18  OCT 21  OCT 26
GON    CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP          OCT  2  OCT  6  OCT  8  OCT 11    OCT 13    OCT 16  OCT 19  OCT 22  OCT 27
MARM3  MA MARBLEHEAD                    OCT  1  OCT  5  OCT  8  OCT 11    OCT 13    OCT 16  OCT 19  OCT 22  OCT 27
PVD    RI PROVIDENCE                    OCT  2  OCT  5  OCT  8  OCT 11    OCT 13    OCT 16  OCT 19  OCT 22  OCT 28
HYSM3  MA HYANNIS                       OCT  2  OCT  6  OCT  9  OCT 12    OCT 15    OCT 17  OCT 20  OCT 24  OCT 29
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDGM3  MA EDGARTOWN                     OCT  3  OCT  8  OCT 11  OCT 14    OCT 17    OCT 20  OCT 23  OCT 26  NOV  1
GTNC3  CT GROTON                        OCT  5  OCT  9  OCT 12  OCT 15    OCT 17    OCT 20  OCT 23  OCT 28  NOV  2
NWBM3  MA NEW BEDFORD                   OCT  4  OCT  8  OCT 12  OCT 15    OCT 18    OCT 21  OCT 25  OCT 29  NOV  2
UUU    RI NEWPORT STATE AP              OCT  5  OCT  9  OCT 13  OCT 16    OCT 19    OCT 22  OCT 25  OCT 28  NOV  2
BDR    CT BRIDGEPORT SIKORSKY AP        OCT  8  OCT 12  OCT 15  OCT 18    OCT 21    OCT 24  OCT 28  NOV  1  NOV  5
CQX    MA CHATHAM MUNI AP               OCT  8  OCT 12  OCT 15  OCT 18    OCT 21    OCT 23  OCT 26  OCT 29  NOV  2
TIVR1  RI TIVERTON                      OCT  8  OCT 12  OCT 16  OCT 19    OCT 22    OCT 25  OCT 28  NOV  1  NOV  5
ACK    MA NANTUCKET FAA AP              OCT 10  OCT 15  OCT 19  OCT 22    OCT 25    OCT 28  OCT 31  NOV  3  NOV  7
BOS    MA BOSTON                        OCT 13  OCT 18  OCT 21  OCT 24    OCT 27    OCT 29  NOV  1  NOV  3  NOV  7
BID    RI BLOCK ISLAND STATE AP         OCT 12  OCT 18  OCT 22  OCT 25    OCT 28    OCT 31  NOV  3  NOV  6  NOV 12
NPTR1  RI NEWPORT ROSE                  OCT 12  OCT 17  OCT 21  OCT 25    OCT 28    OCT 31  NOV  2  NOV  5  NOV  9
CHH    MA CHATHAM                       OCT 18  OCT 23  OCT 27  OCT 29    NOV  1    NOV  3  NOV  5  NOV  9  NOV 14

 

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And for our NNE friends:

ID     STATION                            10%     20%     30%     40%       50%       60%     70%     80%     90%
-----  -------------------------------  ------  ------  ------  ------    ------    ------  ------  ------  ------
MVLV1  VT MORRISVILLE 4 SSW             AUG 21  AUG 28  SEP  1  SEP  3    SEP  6    SEP  9  SEP 13  SEP 17  SEP 22
PTFM1  ME PITTSTON FARM                 AUG 25  AUG 29  SEP  1  SEP  3    SEP  6    SEP  9  SEP 12  SEP 16  SEP 20
FISM1  ME FT KENT                       AUG 24  AUG 30  SEP  1  SEP  4    SEP  7    SEP 10  SEP 14  SEP 17  SEP 22
HTNM1  ME HOULTON 5N                    AUG 23  AUG 30  SEP  2  SEP  5    SEP  7    SEP 10  SEP 14  SEP 18  SEP 24
NORV1  VT NORTHFIELD 3 SSE              AUG 23  AUG 29  SEP  2  SEP  5    SEP  8    SEP 11  SEP 15  SEP 18  SEP 23
ISLV1  VT ISLAND POND                   AUG 25  AUG 31  SEP  3  SEP  6    SEP  9    SEP 12  SEP 16  SEP 20  SEP 25
NEWN3  NH NEWPORT                       AUG 24  AUG 31  SEP  4  SEP  7    SEP 10    SEP 13  SEP 17  SEP 20  SEP 25
PLFV1  VT PLAINFIELD                    AUG 23  AUG 30  SEP  3  SEP  7    SEP 10    SEP 13  SEP 16  SEP 20  SEP 25
PLYN3  NH PLYMOUTH                      AUG 26  AUG 31  SEP  3  SEP  6    SEP 10    SEP 13  SEP 16  SEP 20  SEP 24
PQIM1  ME PRESQUE ISLE                  AUG 26  SEP  1  SEP  4  SEP  6    SEP 10    SEP 13  SEP 17  SEP 21  SEP 25
RANM1  ME RANGELEY                      AUG 25  AUG 31  SEP  3  SEP  6    SEP 10    SEP 12  SEP 16  SEP 19  SEP 23
DANM1  ME DANFORTH                      AUG 28  SEP  2  SEP  5  SEP  8    SEP 11    SEP 14  SEP 18  SEP 21  SEP 26
IZG    ME FRYEBURG E SLOPES AP          AUG 28  SEP  2  SEP  5  SEP  8    SEP 11    SEP 14  SEP 17  SEP 21  SEP 26
CAR    ME CARIBOU WFO                   AUG 31  SEP  3  SEP  6  SEP  9    SEP 12    SEP 16  SEP 19  SEP 22  SEP 26
CAVV1  VT CAVENDISH                     AUG 29  SEP  2  SEP  6  SEP  9    SEP 12    SEP 16  SEP 19  SEP 22  SEP 26
FARM1  ME FARMINGTON                    AUG 28  SEP  2  SEP  5  SEP  8    SEP 12    SEP 15  SEP 18  SEP 21  SEP 26
PIKN3  NH BENTON 5 SW                   AUG 30  SEP  3  SEP  7  SEP 10    SEP 13    SEP 17  SEP 20  SEP 23  SEP 27
FVE    ME FRENCHVILLE AROOSTOOK AP      AUG 31  SEP  4  SEP  7  SEP 10    SEP 13    SEP 16  SEP 19  SEP 23  SEP 27
SUNV1  VT SUNDERLAND 2                  AUG 31  SEP  4  SEP  7  SEP 10    SEP 13    SEP 16  SEP 19  SEP 22  SEP 26
BRAM1  ME BRASSUA DAM                   AUG 31  SEP  4  SEP  8  SEP 11    SEP 14    SEP 17  SEP 20  SEP 24  SEP 28
DFXM1  ME DOVER-FOXCROFT WWTP           AUG 30  SEP  4  SEP  7  SEP 11    SEP 14    SEP 16  SEP 19  SEP 22  SEP 27
MIDM1  ME MIDDLE DAM                    AUG 29  SEP  3  SEP  7  SEP 11    SEP 14    SEP 17  SEP 21  SEP 24  SEP 27
PATM1  ME PATTEN 2                      AUG 31  SEP  4  SEP  7  SEP 11    SEP 14    SEP 17  SEP 20  SEP 24  SEP 28
RUTV1  VT RUTLAND                       AUG 31  SEP  4  SEP  8  SEP 11    SEP 14    SEP 16  SEP 19  SEP 22  SEP 26
TMWN3  NH TAMWORTH 4                    SEP  1  SEP  4  SEP  7  SEP 10    SEP 14    SEP 16  SEP 20  SEP 23  SEP 28
ESHM1  ME EAST HIRAM                    SEP  1  SEP  5  SEP  9  SEP 12    SEP 15    SEP 18  SEP 21  SEP 25  SEP 29
MONN3  NH MONROE 5 NNE                  AUG 31  SEP  4  SEP  8  SEP 11    SEP 15    SEP 18  SEP 20  SEP 24  SEP 28
MVL    VT MORRISVILLE STOWE STATE AP    SEP  1  SEP  5  SEP  8  SEP 12    SEP 15    SEP 18  SEP 21  SEP 24  SEP 28
SPRM1  ME SPRINGFIELD                   AUG 31  SEP  4  SEP  8  SEP 12    SEP 15    SEP 18  SEP 21  SEP 25  SEP 29
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BRLN3  NH BERLIN                        SEP  1  SEP  5  SEP  9  SEP 12    SEP 16    SEP 19  SEP 22  SEP 25  SEP 28
CORM1  ME CORINNA                       AUG 31  SEP  5  SEP 10  SEP 13    SEP 16    SEP 18  SEP 21  SEP 24  SEP 28
HOLM1  ME HOLLIS                        SEP  1  SEP  5  SEP  9  SEP 13    SEP 16    SEP 19  SEP 21  SEP 25  SEP 28
GREM1  ME SEBEC LAKE                    AUG 31  SEP  5  SEP  9  SEP 13    SEP 16    SEP 19  SEP 22  SEP 25  SEP 30
BRNM1  ME BARNARD                       SEP  1  SEP  6  SEP 11  SEP 14    SEP 17    SEP 20  SEP 22  SEP 25  SEP 29
CHLV1  VT CHELSEA 2 NW                  SEP  2  SEP  7  SEP 11  SEP 15    SEP 17    SEP 20  SEP 23  SEP 25  SEP 28
CON    NH CONCORD ASOS                  SEP  2  SEP  7  SEP 11  SEP 14    SEP 17    SEP 20  SEP 23  SEP 26  OCT  1
ENOV1  VT ENOSBURG FALLS                SEP  1  SEP  6  SEP 10  SEP 14    SEP 17    SEP 20  SEP 23  SEP 26  SEP 30
HRTM1  ME HARTFORD                      AUG 29  SEP  5  SEP 10  SEP 14    SEP 17    SEP 20  SEP 23  SEP 26  SEP 30
MPV    VT MONTPELIER AP                 SEP  2  SEP  7  SEP 11  SEP 14    SEP 17    SEP 20  SEP 23  SEP 26  OCT  1
RDSV1  VT READSBORO 1 SE                SEP  2  SEP  7  SEP 11  SEP 15    SEP 17    SEP 20  SEP 23  SEP 26  SEP 30
KEEN3  NH KEENE                         SEP  3  SEP  7  SEP 12  SEP 15    SEP 18    SEP 21  SEP 24  SEP 27  OCT  1
FFLN3  NH FRANKLIN FALLS DAM            SEP  1  SEP  6  SEP 11  SEP 15    SEP 19    SEP 22  SEP 25  SEP 29  OCT  3
NPTV1  VT NEWPORT                       SEP  3  SEP  8  SEP 12  SEP 16    SEP 19    SEP 21  SEP 24  SEP 27  OCT  1
       VT WATERBURY 2 SSE               SEP  4  SEP  9  SEP 13  SEP 16    SEP 19    SEP 22  SEP 25  SEP 28  OCT  1
WDLM1  ME WOODLAND                      SEP  1  SEP  8  SEP 12  SEP 16    SEP 19    SEP 22  SEP 25  SEP 29  OCT  2
WDSV1  VT WOODSTOCK                     SEP  2  SEP  8  SEP 12  SEP 16    SEP 19    SEP 21  SEP 24  SEP 26  SEP 30
BRIM1  ME BRIDGTON 3 NW                 AUG 29  SEP  6  SEP 12  SEP 16    SEP 20    SEP 23  SEP 26  SEP 30  OCT  3
AFN    NH JAFFREY                       SEP  5  SEP 10  SEP 14  SEP 17    SEP 20    SEP 23  SEP 26  SEP 29  OCT  3
NCON3  NH NORTH CONWAY                  SEP  5  SEP 10  SEP 14  SEP 17    SEP 20    SEP 23  SEP 25  SEP 28  OCT  1
DDH    VT BENNINGTON MORSE ST AP        SEP  5  SEP 11  SEP 15  SEP 18    SEP 21    SEP 23  SEP 26  SEP 28  OCT  2
ROCV1  VT ROCHESTER                     SEP  3  SEP  9  SEP 14  SEP 17    SEP 21    SEP 23  SEP 26  SEP 29  OCT  2
SLSN3  NH SALISBURY                     SEP  6  SEP 11  SEP 15  SEP 18    SEP 21    SEP 24  SEP 26  SEP 29  OCT  2
WBTM1  ME WEST BUXTON 2 NNW             SEP  6  SEP 12  SEP 15  SEP 18    SEP 21    SEP 24  SEP 26  SEP 29  OCT  2
GLDN3  NH GREENLAND                     SEP  6  SEP 12  SEP 16  SEP 19    SEP 22    SEP 25  SEP 28  OCT  1  OCT  4
MLT    ME MILLINOCKET FAA AP            SEP  8  SEP 13  SEP 17  SEP 20    SEP 22    SEP 25  SEP 28  OCT  1  OCT  4
RIPM1  ME RIPOGENUS DAM                 SEP  4  SEP 11  SEP 15  SEP 19    SEP 22    SEP 25  SEP 28  OCT  1  OCT  4
SBYV1  VT SALISBURY 2 N                 SEP  6  SEP 11  SEP 15  SEP 19    SEP 22    SEP 24  SEP 27  SEP 30  OCT  4
VSF    VT SPRINGFIELD HARTNESS AP       SEP  8  SEP 14  SEP 17  SEP 20    SEP 22    SEP 25  SEP 27  SEP 30  OCT  3
CWLV1  VT CORNWALL                      SEP  7  SEP 13  SEP 17  SEP 20    SEP 23    SEP 25  SEP 28  OCT  1  OCT  4
DURN3  NH DURHAM                        SEP  6  SEP 12  SEP 16  SEP 20    SEP 23    SEP 25  SEP 28  OCT  1  OCT  4
EDNV1  VT EDEN 2 S                      SEP  9  SEP 14  SEP 18  SEP 21    SEP 23    SEP 26  SEP 29  OCT  1  OCT  5
MADM1  ME MADISON                       SEP  5  SEP 12  SEP 17  SEP 20    SEP 23    SEP 26  SEP 28  OCT  1  OCT  5
MLTM1  ME MILLINOCKET                   SEP  7  SEP 13  SEP 17  SEP 20    SEP 23    SEP 26  SEP 28  OCT  1  OCT  4
POWV1  VT POWNAL 1 NE                   SEP  9  SEP 14  SEP 18  SEP 21    SEP 23    SEP 26  SEP 29  OCT  1  OCT  5
DURM1  ME DURHAM                        SEP 11  SEP 16  SEP 19  SEP 22    SEP 24    SEP 26  SEP 28  OCT  1  OCT  4
HUDN3  NH HUDSON 1 SSE                  SEP 10  SEP 14  SEP 18  SEP 21    SEP 24    SEP 26  SEP 29  OCT  1  OCT  4
1V4    VT SAINT JOHNSBURY               SEP  8  SEP 15  SEP 19  SEP 21    SEP 24    SEP 26  SEP 28  OCT  1  OCT  4
BGR    ME BANGOR AP                     SEP 11  SEP 16  SEP 20  SEP 22    SEP 25    SEP 27  SEP 30  OCT  2  OCT  5
BELM1  ME BELFAST                       SEP 11  SEP 16  SEP 20  SEP 23    SEP 25    SEP 28  OCT  1  OCT  3  OCT  7
DAW    NH ROCHESTER SKYHAVEN AP         SEP 10  SEP 15  SEP 19  SEP 22    SEP 25    SEP 27  SEP 30  OCT  2  OCT  5
RUMM1  ME RUMFORD 1 SSE                 SEP 11  SEP 16  SEP 20  SEP 23    SEP 25    SEP 28  SEP 30  OCT  2  OCT  5
SARV1  VT ST ALBANS RADIO               SEP  9  SEP 16  SEP 20  SEP 22    SEP 25    SEP 28  OCT  1  OCT  3  OCT  7
WEAN3  NH WEARE                         SEP 10  SEP 15  SEP 19  SEP 22    SEP 25    SEP 27  SEP 30  OCT  2  OCT  6
EXJV1  VT ESSEX JUNCTION 1 N            SEP 11  SEP 17  SEP 21  SEP 24    SEP 26    SEP 28  OCT  1  OCT  3  OCT  7
LEB    NH LEBANON MUNI AP               SEP 13  SEP 18  SEP 21  SEP 23    SEP 26    SEP 28  SEP 30  OCT  2  OCT  5
SANM1  ME SANFORD 2 NNW                 SEP 11  SEP 17  SEP 20  SEP 23    SEP 26    SEP 28  OCT  1  OCT  2  OCT  5
IWI    ME WISCASSET AP                  SEP 14  SEP 19  SEP 22  SEP 24    SEP 26    SEP 28  OCT  1  OCT  3  OCT  6
JONM1  ME JONESBORO                     SEP 15  SEP 19  SEP 22  SEP 25    SEP 27    SEP 30  OCT  1  OCT  4  OCT  8
MILN3  NH MILFORD                       SEP 12  SEP 18  SEP 21  SEP 24    SEP 27    SEP 29  OCT  1  OCT  3  OCT  6
WVLM1  ME WATERVILLE TRTMT PLT          SEP 12  SEP 18  SEP 22  SEP 24    SEP 27    SEP 29  OCT  1  OCT  3  OCT  7
GNR    ME GREENVILLE MAINE FORESTRY SV  SEP 13  SEP 18  SEP 22  SEP 25    SEP 28    OCT  1  OCT  2  OCT  5  OCT  8
HANN3  NH HANOVER                       SEP 16  SEP 20  SEP 23  SEP 26    SEP 28    SEP 30  OCT  1  OCT  4  OCT  7
NASN3  NH NASHUA 2 NNW                  SEP 13  SEP 19  SEP 22  SEP 25    SEP 28    SEP 30  OCT  1  OCT  4  OCT  8
ROBM1  ME ROBBINSTON                    SEP 15  SEP 20  SEP 23  SEP 26    SEP 28    OCT  1  OCT  3  OCT  5  OCT  9
WLYM1  ME WESLEY                        SEP 15  SEP 20  SEP 23  SEP 26    SEP 28    SEP 30  OCT  2  OCT  5  OCT  8
GARM1  ME GARDINER                      SEP 17  SEP 21  SEP 24  SEP 27    SEP 29    OCT  1  OCT  3  OCT  5  OCT  9
VRNV1  VT VERNON                        SEP 17  SEP 22  SEP 25  SEP 27    SEP 29    OCT  1  OCT  3  OCT  6  OCT 11
BTV    VT BURLINGTON WSO AP             SEP 19  SEP 23  SEP 26  SEP 28    SEP 30    OCT  1  OCT  3  OCT  6  OCT  9
GRAM1  ME GRAND LAKE STREAM             SEP 17  SEP 22  SEP 25  SEP 27    SEP 30    OCT  1  OCT  3  OCT  5  OCT  9
MNCN3  NH MASSABESIC LAKE               SEP 18  SEP 22  SEP 25  SEP 28    SEP 30    OCT  2  OCT  4  OCT  7  OCT 11
MTSN3  NH MT SUNAPEE                    SEP 16  SEP 21  SEP 24  SEP 27    SEP 30    OCT  1  OCT  4  OCT  6  OCT 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BLFV1  VT BELLOWS FALLS                 SEP 19  SEP 23  SEP 26  SEP 28    OCT  1    OCT  2  OCT  4  OCT  6  OCT 10
ELLM1  ME ELLSWORTH                     SEP 19  SEP 23  SEP 27  SEP 29    OCT  1    OCT  3  OCT  5  OCT  8  OCT 11
ORNM1  ME ORONO                         SEP 18  SEP 23  SEP 26  SEP 28    OCT  1    OCT  2  OCT  5  OCT  7  OCT 11
PWM    ME PORTLAND JETPORT              SEP 20  SEP 24  SEP 27  SEP 29    OCT  1    OCT  2  OCT  4  OCT  7  OCT 11
HLBN3  NH DEERING                       SEP 20  SEP 24  SEP 27  SEP 30    OCT  2    OCT  4  OCT  6  OCT 10  OCT 15
LEWM1  ME LEWISTON                      SEP 23  SEP 26  SEP 29  OCT  1    OCT  2    OCT  4  OCT  6  OCT  9  OCT 12
AUG    ME AUGUSTA FAA AP                SEP 24  SEP 27  SEP 30  OCT  1    OCT  3    OCT  5  OCT  8  OCT 10  OCT 14
NEWM1  ME NEWCASTLE                     SEP 23  SEP 27  SEP 30  OCT  1    OCT  3    OCT  5  OCT  7  OCT 10  OCT 14
WRKM1  ME WEST ROCKPORT 1 NNW           SEP 21  SEP 25  SEP 28  OCT  1    OCT  3    OCT  5  OCT  7  OCT 11  OCT 15
GYX    ME GRAY                          SEP 23  SEP 27  SEP 30  OCT  2    OCT  4    OCT  6  OCT  8  OCT 11  OCT 16
MHT    NH MANCHESTER AP                 SEP 24  SEP 28  OCT  1  OCT  2    OCT  4    OCT  6  OCT  9  OCT 11  OCT 15
SHRV1  VT SOUTH HERO                    SEP 24  SEP 28  OCT  1  OCT  2    OCT  4    OCT  6  OCT  9  OCT 12  OCT 16
LKPN3  NH LAKEPORT 2                    SEP 26  SEP 29  OCT  1  OCT  3    OCT  5    OCT  8  OCT 10  OCT 13  OCT 17
BHRM1  ME ACADIA NP                     SEP 24  SEP 29  OCT  1  OCT  3    OCT  6    OCT  8  OCT 11  OCT 15  OCT 19
EPO    ME EASTPORT                      SEP 25  SEP 30  OCT  2  OCT  5    OCT  7    OCT  9  OCT 13  OCT 16  OCT 21
PCLM1  ME PORT CLYDE                    OCT  2  OCT  6  OCT  9  OCT 11    OCT 14    OCT 16  OCT 19  OCT 22  OCT 26

 

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36 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it is fascinating that we could see some scattered frost around with dews in the 30s on Saturday and lows in the 30s on Sunday morning...then be humid and damp by like Monday afternoon.

"A secondary push of cooler air and daytime planetary boundary layer mixing should drop 2-M dewpoints into the 30s for Saturday afternoon, so definitely an autumn feel to the air mass for the weekend. Looking for high temperatures mainly in the low-mid 60s for Saturday afternoon. Saturday night will feature lows in the low- mid 40s, except in the 30s across central/ern Vermont and in the nrn Adirondack region. Anticipate a low of 32f or so at kslk and Island Pond with patchy frost in the northern Adirondacks and Vermont's Northeast Kingdom."

I left for a trip to Seattle/Northern Idaho and won't be back till Tuesday... So I think we are guaranteed a frost since I left the plants out

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2 hours ago, alex said:

I left for a trip to Seattle/Northern Idaho and won't be back till Tuesday... So I think we are guaranteed a frost since I left the plants out

Yeah in your frost pocket along that elevated river bottom...mid-30s and a frost seems very reasonable.  It is September after all.

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wow, if that D8-10 Euro verifies like that ...that would be the richest DPs we've seen all year and possibly "years" at that - 

You have a TC run up aground into the region along and astride the I95 corridor of the EC...then caught like a fly in amber, it festers with it's near physically maximized WV content, ...

It's not likely to happen as is ... anyway, but..the model certainly thinks that's possible in Earth's atmosphere; otherwise ... the processing of the model would not be capable of arriving to that abhorrent circumstance.  And it would be... talkin' DP of 79 type stuff...  

Figures, in GW ...climate models have been hammering the higher atmospheric WV content as one in a plethora of consequences ... and well - maybe this summer is a sampling of where we are headed.  Interesting...   But, we get this autumn snap and DPs < 50 for a couple of clicks, then get punished for it immediately within a week by historic DP numbers?   that's kinda fascinating if that worked out.  

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