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September Models and Pattern: The March to Fall

moneypitmike

By moneypitmike,
in New England

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I see a yo-yo look. Mean trough will be west, so we'll get a push of colder and drier air with HP building in from the NNW. Usually a good delivery for us. But with trough axis west, return flow of warm and humid air along with storm chances and cyclogenesis on the east coast. It's a good pattern for a hybrid type of storm too. May have to watch for that. 

It should be interesting to see how October and later plays out.  It doesn't look like anything BN long term but we'll certainly see waves BN.  Throw in some cyclogenesis and we could see some interesting setups.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

It affects it, but not as much as you're thinking it will.  If you send an arctic air mass over it, it's not going to be suddenly 80's and sunny here.  The water will also cool over time, lessening the effect.  It's not like it's going to stay at the same temp all winter...lol.

And not all air masses come directly over the Lakes.  I still think NW flow orographics like downsloping off the terrain in CNE/NNE plays more of a role in modifying  local air masses advecting into SNE.  

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

And not all air masses come directly over the Lakes.  I still think NW flow orographics like downsloping off the terrain in CNE/NNE plays more of a role in modifying  local air masses advecting into SNE.  

It’s why our coldest temps come from direct 180 north /south discharges . Any NW component is modified by the Lakes. It’s been this way since beginning of time 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

All the cool is in the Plains and MW. It never reaches the EC. AN should rule. Just not obscenely so 

Pieces of it will make it here if the core of cold is centered in Midwest, looks up and down to me but probably averaging above normal (which is a safe bet these days anyway to lean warm).

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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16 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

All the cool is in the Plains and MW. It never reaches the EC. AN should rule. Just not obscenely so 

I had fully expected that when the board came back up from its hiatus the last couple of days that you would have morphed back into Winter-Blizz.  Are you still living on BDL-time?  :)

42.2*

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
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13 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I had fully expected that when the board came back up from its hiatus the last couple of days that you would have morphed back into Winter-Blizz.  Are you still living on BDL-time?  :)

42.2*

It’s fall . Summer is over of course. It doesn’t change the fact the pattern is still warm and AN overall. A normal day like today sprinkled in too. No massive torches , but EC remains ANthru Oct

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

mm  I don't know how/why that's an El Nino thing .. but it certainly looks like an early season -EPO  :)

Seems the atmosphere over our side of the hemisphere attempted to graduate right to winter without passing through the rigors of the curriculum ...so to speak.  Meanwhile, south of roughly the 40th parallel, there is this interminable positive geopotential anomaly. The resulting configuration is an anomalously amplified ridge-trough couplet between/ivo the Alaskan sector and fledgling SPV wobbling around Canada ...all of which sets on top of said positive height anomalies in the south. It really is almost a comical look - it's like those southerly heights are Herculean toting the world on his back.

Anyway, in the winter...the initial stage of a -EPO would tend to take on that look regardless ENSO or whatever.  Heights pulse upward over/ivo of Alaska, and there is an immediate coupled response downwind over western Canada. But, it typically spreads out as the wave-lengths, lengthen.  The ridge trough relationship between the acme and the nadir 'stretches' across more of Canada after the initial onset. In fact, the natural migration (statistically shown..) is for the -EPO to collapse south, which causes the PNA to rise.  Some times, though rarer, the EPO stays negative while the PNA rises...you end up ridging so mammoth you risk splitting the hemisphere and look out!

Anyway, the "early" aspect of that first sentence... I'm not sure we see the stretching as 'mechanically predictable' as the evolution described above, this early in the year.  The wave lengths are not systemically that long yet.  I think it does.... because it's ultimately driven by gradient - not climate. ha!  But, that ridge in the south so predominate -

Also as a possible atonement to the earliness of that higher latitude appeal... does anyone have a site bookmarked for N.H. 850 mb temperature anomalies - like real time, and modeled?  I'm curious what -9 to -15C looks like compared to the longer term climate norm.  

I'll tell yeah... this is a good ice storm risk in about 1.5 months.  The over-top highs keep wedging colder air relative to the height appeal, and that's typically how you get lengthy overrunning of 29.8 F surface ageos once the sun finally sets on us..

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

As an afterthought ... Trami appears to have shift in track-guidance quite a bit to the right in the last day and half of runs. The mean now pulls it, albeit slowly, more N and threatens to enter its longer term goodies into the westerliers ivo of Japan and beyond. This is changes to a 'recurve' scenario. Chris and I were casting supposition recently upon whether these west Pac TC behaviors describe a systemic change, or...they are more physically directive in causing them.  Here we are again...  Regardless of which, that total behavior tends to support the AA phase of the N Pacific so a -EPO is not a bad fit.

Oy .. edit: actually it appears there is a split with some taking it south, others lifting N

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Torch!!

 

Gonna be a perfect time of year for it.  Keep those outdoor activities going, no need for heat (yesterday was as close as I want to come to turning on and paying for heat this early) but also no need for A/C.  It's too early to snow so why not embrace the warmth.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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26 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Gonna be a perfect time of year for it.  Keep those outdoor activities going, no need for heat (yesterday was as close as I want to come to turning on and paying for heat this early) but also no need for A/C.  It's too early to snow so why not embrace the warmth.

Snowman21 just threw his P/C into LI Sound.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Gonna be a perfect time of year for it.  Keep those outdoor activities going, no need for heat (yesterday was as close as I want to come to turning on and paying for heat this early) but also no need for A/C.  It's too early to snow so why not embrace the warmth.

Exactly!!  I feel the same way. 

 Great post Freak. 

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