Hoosier Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 21 minutes ago, Stebo said: This is definitely a large storm as well and should only get larger. True. Sandy was just freakishly big though. It created some high end wind/wave action on Lake Michigan... just a massive wind envelope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 46 minutes ago, Hoosier said: True. Sandy was just freakishly big though. It created some high end wind/wave action on Lake Michigan... just a massive wind envelope. Oh it wont be on that level lol. That was insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: The high might be too strong and shift it south. It may come back as a dead corpse on the jet stream, but it won't pack much punch. It will be coming with a ton of moisture. All you need to do is go back to this weekend to see what a listless storm can still do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 hour ago, Stebo said: Oh it wont be on that level lol. That was insanity. Turning into a banner year in the Lakes/OV for tropical remnants if Florence happens. Already had Alberto and Gordon and there's several weeks of feasibility for something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 16 hours ago, Hoosier said: well played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Angrysummons said: We'll see. The models are mess with this due to the big high. Last weekend is a bad example. This will likely get squished and lose all intensity. The weekend was mainly the front providing most of the rain. This won't have that kind of setup. There won't be a front to pick this up? Have you actually looked at the models or is this another Angrysummons stab in the dark post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 12 minutes ago, Stebo said: There won't be a front to pick this up? Have you actually looked at the models or is this another Angrysummons stab in the dark post. I actually kind of agree with what he was saying. There is a front entering the picture but as of now, the models generally have Florence recurving out ahead of it. Could still provide decent rain wherever it tracks but without merging and with fairly steady forward speed, we probably wouldn't be looking at super high totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: I actually kind of agree with what he was saying. There is a front entering the picture but as of now, the models generally have Florence recurving out ahead of it. Could still provide decent rain wherever it tracks but without merging and with fairly steady forward speed, we probably wouldn't be looking at super high totals. It recurves because the trough impinges on the circulation and picks it up near and eventually along the front. I'm looking at it synoptically, the rain totals the models are putting out right now don't mean much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 This is some top shelf September weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Looking at the Florence setup, I think what we'd need to get it as far west as possible is a faster outcome. I mean, the forward motion is going to slow down in coming days, but the prolonged dancing near the coast basically means that our ridging is able to erode. If the slowdown ends up not being as prolonged, then we might see the models shift west with the remnants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This is some top shelf September weather. I would agree if we could ever get rid of this pesky bank of stratocumulus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, IWXwx said: I would agree if we could ever get rid of this pesky bank of stratocumulus. West is best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 2:41 PM, Hoosier said: Looking at the Florence setup, I think what we'd need to get it as far west as possible is a faster outcome. I mean, the forward motion is going to slow down in coming days, but the prolonged dancing near the coast basically means that our ridging is able to erode. If the slowdown ends up not being as prolonged, then we might see the models shift west with the remnants. Here's what I'm talking about. At 96 hrs, the GFS and ECMWF both still have Florence near the coast. The HWRF is much faster with the surface low already into eastern TN then. Florence eventually ends up much farther west. I'd lean more on the globals at this point, but just pointing out what I think needs to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Well, 18z GFS is quicker with Florence and gets the remnants farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 2:31 PM, Hoosier said: This is some top shelf September weather. Top shelf is right, looks like it’s going to be dancing around 80F at the warmest and it’s been mid 60s at its coolest. The lake continues to be my friend as it’s been most of the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Today was amazing, top shelf for sure. The most pleasant day of this month. For whatever reason it smelled really good outside and a few noticed that. Maybe its because we're getting to that time of the year where heat and heatwaves produce incredible aromas outdoors. I'm looking forward to those hot days later on . This last weekend was absolutely garbage, far too chilly and dank. Ruins the mood plus its uncomfortable. Despite being drenched in sweat at times during the hot parts of summer I wish for that over last Saturday's offerings. I then look at PHX's 40-41ºC every day this week with full sun and wish it were so...to say I admire that climate would be a huge understatement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Dang Champaign tagged 90 today, a bit unexpected. One last summer hoorah? I’m ready for fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 MLI got to 90 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Euro is still keeping Florence a bit farther east, with the rain in eastern parts of KY and OH. Other models get it farther west with some rain making it into parts of IN/MI. In any case, a nice slug of high pwats of 2-2.25" will mean efficient rain. The synoptic front hangs back west as Florence moves through so it's basically on its own for rainfall production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 15, 2018 Share Posted September 15, 2018 There may be a shot at 90 at ORD on Thursday. Temps aloft look to be at or near the threshold out ahead of a low heading toward the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 15, 2018 Share Posted September 15, 2018 After the cooler weather this week, this warmup is really feeling hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 15, 2018 Share Posted September 15, 2018 90 at MLI again. Where's cyclone to celebrate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 15, 2018 Share Posted September 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: 90 at MLI again. Where's cyclone to celebrate? Hey I was actually just about to quote your previous post lol. Yeah another one today makes for the 35th of the season. Hit 87 here today, and 89 yesterday. Really didn't feel uncomfortable though, as the dews have only been in the low to mid 60s, with a decent breeze. What a difference mid 60 degree dews can make compared to the never ending 70s from before. Even with all the rain we've received in the past 3 weeks, the crops have really browned up and dried out over the past 10 days. There's already lots of harvesting (corn) going on, which is pretty early for that. I'm guessing since the corn was WAY ahead of schedule earlier this summer the crops are drying out earlier for the same reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 15, 2018 Share Posted September 15, 2018 Was just looking back at my records and saw that we had our first flurries of the season on October 4th 2014. Those were the earliest flakes I've seen since I've been alive. October 4th is less than 3 weeks from now, so it's kind of mind boggling that it can theoretically snow in the not-so-distant future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 3 hours ago, Stebo said: After the cooler weather this week, this warmup is really feeling hot. I can imagine how warm the heat in the Twin Cities and Des Moines must've felt this late in the season, here it was upper 70s with dews in the 60s and that was warm enough with full sunshine and a light breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 2 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Was just looking back at my records and saw that we had our first flurries of the season on October 4th 2014. Those were the earliest flakes I've seen since I've been alive. October 4th is less than 3 weeks from now, so it's kind of mind boggling that it can theoretically snow in the not-so-distant future. Considering how winter type weather lingered well into April, it would really seem like a short break from snow season around here if it snows in October this year. I was thinking back and I can only remember one time where my last measurable snow and my first measurable snow of the next winter were separated by 6 months or less.... 2000. Had snow on April 10 and then on October 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Considering how winter type weather lingered well into April, it would really seem like a short break from snow season around here if it snows in October this year. I was thinking back and I can only remember one time where my last measurable snow and my first measurable snow of the next winter were separated by 6 months or less.... 2000. Had snow on April 10 and then on October 7. Yeah it'll be interesting to see if we can get a short break between snowfalls. Funny thing for me is the intense heat that hit early on, in May, and continued through June sort of wiped away that memory of the late snowfalls. We really flipped a switch between mid Apr and mid May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 On 9/15/2018 at 3:15 PM, Hoosier said: There may be a shot at 90 at ORD on Thursday. Temps aloft look to be at or near the threshold out ahead of a low heading toward the Lakes. I have decent confidence in this considering it's 4 days out and in the back half of September. ORD is in the upper 80s today, and thermal profiles aloft look a bit warmer on Thursday and will also have stronger low level flow. In a strange coincidence, the record high for September 20 (92) was set last year and could well be in play this year if things go right. Also, can't entirely rule out 90 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 Already in the upper 80s at ORD, so 90 looks likely today. As far as Thursday, I'd go as far as to say mid 90s aren't out of the question assuming no impacts from cloud cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Already in the upper 80s at ORD, so 90 looks likely today. As far as Thursday, I'd go as far as to say mid 90s aren't out of the question assuming no impacts from cloud cover. Yeah when I moved to Wisconsin I didn't think I would be working in temps near 90 in September... For us up in Wausau Wisconsin that looks to end tonight though. Storms will be blowing through with temps dropping into the 60s for highs for several days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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