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September 2018 General Discussion


snowlover2

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49 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

I forgot about that anomalous heat last September...I guess I try to block out warm wx as much as possible. :ph34r:

7 consecutive daily records...wow. 

Yep, 7.  The stretch in March 2012 had 9 consecutive records and was more impressive in other metrics, but that week in Sep 2017 was no slouch.  It is the new standard for prolonged late season heat, at least for the Chicago area.

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Topped out at 91.
 

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Wonder how many more there will be. No more in sight in the immediate future and you really start fighting climo in the back half of September and beyond. From a probabilistic standpoint, something like what happened in latter September 2017 (7 consecutive 90s... all daily records) is highly unlikely.  I wouldn't be surprised if today is the last one, but I wouldn't be surprised at one or two more either.

Looks like the last 90 for this year as remnants of Gordon are going to be the final nail in the coffin on this Summer. Even with the behavior and track of Gordon's remnants (including near-record rainfall in many areas on one of the upcoming days) by this weekend, looks like fifty shades of September 2011 coming up over the next week or so. :lol:

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4 hours ago, janetjanet998 said:

SPI hit 99 tied a record

 

WTF?  the forecast high was 90

Two things...Insane Plains-like mixing, and drier conditions recently.

0z ILX sounding from this evening shows mixing to ~600mb. Also that East-Central IL area on south to the Ohio River area has been drier than surrounding areas the past month.

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Main K-W weather station got to 32.3ºC today which broke the old record by 0.1ºC! You can really feel the heat built up this evening, torrid.

All that potential energy the atmosphere had was wasted yesterday evening with just some rain showers and nothing else as the cold front came through. I expected no less. I'm sitting at a staggeringly low 3 thunderstorms total so far this year.

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I would suppose this is an actual picture of a storm over Chicago on Monday. If so, this is amazing. It looks almost like some of those hoax pictures where somebody took an image of a supercell wall cloud on the Plains and superimposed it over a different picture of a beach in Florida and said it was Hurricane Katrina, or something like that.

9gMMsve.jpg

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1 hour ago, Chinook said:

I would suppose this is an actual picture of a storm over Chicago on Monday. If so, this is amazing. It looks almost like some of those hoax pictures where somebody took an image of a supercell wall cloud on the Plains and superimposed it over a different picture of a beach in Florida and said it was Hurricane Katrina, or something like that.

9gMMsve.jpg

Fake or not, from the location from which it was shot, it was probably taken by Alek. :D

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1 hour ago, Chinook said:

I would suppose this is an actual picture of a storm over Chicago on Monday. If so, this is amazing. It looks almost like some of those hoax pictures where somebody took an image of a supercell wall cloud on the Plains and superimposed it over a different picture of a beach in Florida and said it was Hurricane Katrina, or something like that.

9gMMsve.jpg

I saw other pictures resembling that on twitter.

Here's a pic from LOT's page that looks relatively similar.

Chicago_NickEdwards.jpg.fd449d01fd2d963de02eb98932bceebc.jpg

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2 hours ago, IWXwx said:

It's hard to believe that soon bo and Will will be reporting flakes flying.

 

180909120415.gif

Down to 36 this morning with frost on the roof of the house and truck... nothing on the ground.  Leaves are changing noticeably every day.  I'd estimate peak in 2.5-3 weeks.

 Best summer of my life!

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Broke a record low maximum temperature yesterday at 61 thanks to the crappy weekend by Gordon.
 

970
SXUS71 KILN 100553
RERDAY

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
153 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2018

...RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM SET AT DAYTON OH...

A RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM OF 61 DEGREES WAS SET AT DAYTON OH (KDAY)
ON SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 9. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
OF 62 DEGREES SET IN 1924.

The record low maximum temperature for today is 60 in 1924, so we may be close again. Gordon's remnants, including record low maximum temperatures, are reminiscent of the remnants of Lee in 2011 that evolved into a cutoff low and stalled for a good portion of a week. Welcome to September 2011 all over again.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

12z Euro actually manages to bring the Florence remnant low and rain into IN/OH/MI, even with a NC landfall.  It's a messy setup around/after landfall though with weakening steering so less than zero confidence if that's possible.

Without a trough to pick it up, a scenario like that wouldn't shock me.

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14 hours ago, Spartman said:

Broke a record low maximum temperature yesterday at 61 thanks to the crappy weekend by Gordon.
 


970
SXUS71 KILN 100553
RERDAY

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
153 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2018

...RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM SET AT DAYTON OH...

A RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM OF 61 DEGREES WAS SET AT DAYTON OH (KDAY)
ON SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 9. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
OF 62 DEGREES SET IN 1924.

The record low maximum temperature for today is 60 in 1924, so we may be close again. Gordon's remnants, including record low maximum temperatures, are reminiscent of the remnants of Lee in 2011 that evolved into a cutoff low and stalled for a good portion of a week. Welcome to September 2011 all over again.

Just as expected today, close to even tying a record. Topped out at 62. NWS just stuck a fork on any sunshine again for tomorrow since Gordon has seemed to have screwed up our opportunity for any enjoyable conditions, and I can feel it happen for Wednesday as well.

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1 hour ago, Spartman said:

Just as expected today, close to even tying a record. Topped out at 62. NWS just stuck a fork on any sunshine again for tomorrow since Gordon has seemed to have screwed up our opportunity for any enjoyable conditions, and I can feel it happen for Wednesday as well.

oh no

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12z GFS gets Flo into IN/OH as well.  It would be pretty rare to get an east coast landfalling system to back so far west (especially one north of Florida), but this storm has already fought climo and is winning so why not again.  

Sandy's effects came pretty far west due to its massive size but the surface low actually never got west of Lake Erie.  

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50 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

12z GFS gets Flo into IN/OH as well.  It would be pretty rare to get an east coast landfalling system to back so far west (especially one north of Florida), but this storm has already fought climo and is winning so why not again.  

Sandy's effects came pretty far west due to its massive size but the surface low actually never got west of Lake Erie.  

This is definitely a large storm as well and should only get larger.

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