downeastnc Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 00Z GFS was better highs in the 50's week of Oct 15th which also happens to be first week of rifle season on deer......keeps MBY under 60 for 4 straight days, please let that happen lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 16 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: I was looking at a listing of GSP 's top five warmest for each month, and it shows what many of us have been experiencing and referencing of late; an alarming number of record and near record warm months just in the last few years. Going back to 2010, there have been 105 months, not counting this Oct. The number 1 and 3 warmest Februaries on record, 2017 and 2018 The number 1 and 4 Marches, 2012 and 2016 The number 1 April 2017 The number 4 May, 2018 The number 2 June, 2010 The number 3, 4, and 5 July s, 2016, 2011, 2010 The number 3 and 5 Augusta, 2011 and 2016 The number 2 and 4 Septembers, 2018 and 2016 The number 5 October, 2016 And the number 1 December, 2015. That is 16 of our last 105 months have been an all-time top five warmest for that particular month (with 4 having been the warmest ever)! Even the previous decade, the 2000s, which was a warm decade only had 7 total, and that was a lot. By contrast, we have only had 1 top 5 coldest since 2010, that was our number 5 December 2010. And only one other going back to 2000; number 3 December, 2000. Disturbing trends! Exactly! Sure it snows. It still gets extremely cold. And those events are usually all anyone remembers. They forget that 2/3rds of the same winter was breaking heat records. The trend is undeniable and that's up and up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: Exactly! Sure it snows. It still gets extremely cold. And those events are usually all anyone remembers. They forget that 2/3rds of the same winter was breaking heat records. The trend is undeniable and that's up and up! GSP has not recorded a single day below average since 8/26. CLT and AVL, since 8/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 thinking the cold front showing around the 15th may be legit, will be one heck of a shock to most when/if we go from 80s and humidity to highs in the upper 50s and lows in the 40s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 11 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Last year I went the last weekend of Octoberfest in Helen , GA (28th or 29th?) it was sooooo cold!! Think the temp was around 37 all afternoon, mostly cloudy , and flurries from time to time, it was absolutely amazing, I will remember it forever! Winds were also gusting to 30+ MPH!! The rest of the winter absolutely sucked IMBY! Outside of the Jan cold snap! I’d rather hold off on the cold as long as possible, so we don’t end up hunting the reload that never happens (last half of Jan/All of Feb) last year! Or comes in March/April, when it’s useless for most! This winter will be good, I can tell by the size of the nuts! I'm going this weekend and it's going to be like 85. Ideal fest temp is about 65, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 2 hours ago, DopplerWx said: thinking the cold front showing around the 15th may be legit, will be one heck of a shock to most when/if we go from 80s and humidity to highs in the upper 50s and lows in the 40s! I'm hoping it is. But the indices are still not favorable. PNA goes strongly negative and then attempts to get back to neutral. The AO averages positive, and the NAO continues it's 4 month positive run. But, the pattern waves are shorter this time of year. We can still get cool shots with an unfavorable pattern. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 10 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: GSP has not recorded a single day below average since 8/26. CLT and AVL, since 8/25. I'd be curious out of those 105 months how many were actually below normal? I'm guessing not many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 37 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I'm hoping it is. But the indices are still not favorable. PNA goes strongly negative and then attempts to get back to neutral. The AO averages positive, and the NAO continues it's 4 month positive run. But, the pattern waves are shorter this time of year. We can still get cool shots with an unfavorable pattern. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml GFS holding onto the cold front next weekend followed by a period of highs in the 50's low 60's and low well into the 40's..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, downeastnc said: GFS holding onto the cold front next weekend followed by a period of highs in the 50's low 60's and low well into the 40's..... Yep, looks good. It even has dew points in the 20s for many; which if is the case, could be the first chance of frost for some. Again, lets get this within 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 First front comes in day 9, then talk about a shock to the system (~ day 12) : 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpbart Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 I know that not likely to happen, but DAMN, that would be fun. Artic Hammer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 Yesterday, Atlanta had its first 90 degree October day since 1954. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 headed to the state fair a week from saturday. hopeful for seasonal temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 Dear summer.....get the *##& out.......that is all 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 Less than 9 days out, with seasonable lows showing up on the new GFS. Euro and CMC show tropical influence but also show a sharp cool-down in the same timeframe (8-10 days). Meanwhile I want to reel this one in from la-la land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 8 hours ago, Waiting on snow said: I'd be curious out of those 105 months how many were actually below normal? I'm guessing not many. This is a worldwide trend. For 400 Months in a Row, the Earth Has Been Warmer Than 20th Century Average If you assume the odds of a particular month being warmer than average are 50 percent — what you’d expect in a stable climate — then the odds of 400 warm months in a row would be approximately one in 1 x 10^120. The name for such a number is a “novemtrigintillion” — a value bigger than the number of atoms that exist in a trillion universes. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-17/april-was-400th-consecutive-month-world-warmer-than-20th-century https://grist.org/article/for-400-months-in-a-row-our-planet-has-been-unusually-hot/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 9 hours ago, Waiting on snow said: I'd be curious out of those 105 months how many were actually below normal? I'm guessing not many. Ok, believe it or not I actually tried to find the answer! NWS only goes back 5 years, or 60 months, and I don't know where to go to get farther back. I tried wunderground, but I every time I try to bring up the history for GSP it goes over to some site in Peru...? anyway, for the past 60 months - back though Oct of 2013, there have actually been 19 that were below normal - actually more than I would have thought. But still, less than a third. One was exactly normal, and the rest were above. These are the months below for each year since then 2013 - Nov 2014 - Jan, Mar, July, Aug, Nov 2015 - Jan, Feb, Oct 2016 - Jan, Feb, May 2017 - June, Aug 2018 - Jan, Mar, April, July, Aug The top 3 greatest departures below were as follows: 1. Jan 14 (-6.1), 2. Nov 14 (-4.7), 3. Jan 18 (-4.1) Most of the rest were less than 2 below normal. The three greatest positive departures were as follows: 1. Dec 15 (+11.2), 2. Feb 17 (+8.2), 3. Feb 18 (+7.9), nearly twice the greatest cold departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 1 hour ago, jburns said: This is a worldwide trend. For 400 Months in a Row, the Earth Has Been Warmer Than 20th Century Average If you assume the odds of a particular month being warmer than average are 50 percent — what you’d expect in a stable climate — then the odds of 400 warm months in a row would be approximately one in 1 x 10^120. The name for such a number is a “novemtrigintillion” — a value bigger than the number of atoms that exist in a trillion universes. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-17/april-was-400th-consecutive-month-world-warmer-than-20th-century https://grist.org/article/for-400-months-in-a-row-our-planet-has-been-unusually-hot/ Yeah, I've heard that before and its a mind boggling streak. I looked it up and Dec 1984 was the last month. Hmm, wonder if it had any effect on Jan 85. Anything happen that month of interest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 Not much changes on the 06z GFS however did notice the cool down starting earlier for the upper South with some cool air seeping in just east of mountains at hr180 for Virginia, NWNC and WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 12 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Ok, believe it or not I actually tried to find the answer! NWS only goes back 5 years, or 60 months, and I don't know where to go to get farther back. I tried wunderground, but I every time I try to bring up the history for GSP it goes over to some site in Peru...? anyway, for the past 60 months - back though Oct of 2013, there have actually been 19 that were below normal - actually more than I would have thought. But still, less than a third. One was exactly normal, and the rest were above. These are the months below for each year since then 2013 - Nov 2014 - Jan, Mar, July, Aug, Nov 2015 - Jan, Feb, Oct 2016 - Jan, Feb, May 2017 - June, Aug 2018 - Jan, Mar, April, July, Aug The top 3 greatest departures below were as follows: 1. Jan 14 (-6.1), 2. Nov 14 (-4.7), 3. Jan 18 (-4.1) Most of the rest were less than 2 below normal. The three greatest positive departures were as follows: 1. Dec 15 (+11.2), 2. Feb 17 (+8.2), 3. Feb 18 (+7.9), nearly twice the greatest cold departures. Interesting to see 4 of the last 5 Januaries below normal. Decembers have absolutely torched lately and Feb is hit or miss. Definitely a disturbing trend the data shows. Winters definitely starting late every year and most ending early too. Most of the se except one or two locations did very well on snow last year. But it was really only the first two weeks of Dec and the first two in Jan and then winter vanished. That's why I'm very skeptical of the forecasts of below average for the winter as a whole this year. Unless blocking finally decides to appear the 4 weeks of winter we do get better be record breaking to erase the other 8 weeks of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 Word of the day: Outrageous Temperatures should remain 10-15 degrees above normal until mid to late week when the highs will probably be tempered by clouds/showers. Overnight lows would still be outrageous (15+ degrees above normal for early October - due to the southerly flow and deep moisture influx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 On 10/4/2018 at 9:39 PM, jburns said: This is a worldwide trend. For 400 Months in a Row, the Earth Has Been Warmer Than 20th Century Average If you assume the odds of a particular month being warmer than average are 50 percent — what you’d expect in a stable climate — then the odds of 400 warm months in a row would be approximately one in 1 x 10^120. The name for such a number is a “novemtrigintillion” — a value bigger than the number of atoms that exist in a trillion universes. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-17/april-was-400th-consecutive-month-world-warmer-than-20th-century https://grist.org/article/for-400-months-in-a-row-our-planet-has-been-unusually-hot/ Living in Macon, Georgia, where my September average was two degrees higher than my July average, I wouldn't know it but, The University of Alabama-Huntsville, Global Temperature Update reports that this past September was the coolest September in the past 10 years. https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 6, 2018 Author Share Posted October 6, 2018 Lower dewpoints may get pulled in behind “Michael”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 The overnight model runs continue to show the cool down for the end of the week. From RAH: It continues to appear that by next weekend, the first push of genuinely cool and dry air of fall will arrive behind the departing low pressure. Lows may actually dip into the 40s by next weekend, with highs in the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 looks like some amazing fall weather coming in behind michael friday, lows in the low 50s thru the weekend! FINALLY some crisp nights! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 1 hour ago, DopplerWx said: looks like some amazing fall weather coming in behind michael friday, lows in the low 50s thru the weekend! FINALLY some crisp nights! That is what I am seeing too. Going to be real nice. High's low to mid 70's, lows in the low to mid 50's. Dew points will be especially nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Hot as Hades today. Cant remember an october day feeling as bad as it does . AND HOW BOUT THE PANTHERS. 63 YARDER FOR THE WIN BABY 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Ok, guess it's the fall wennie in me but I find that I am actually a little giddy about tomorrow night. I seriously have been thinking about the cool down all day with anticipation, kinda like when you have something really cool planned that you can't wait till it gets here. Ok, part if it is that my a/c went out a couple weeks ago and with the heat and humidity, the windows have provided little relief at night. But beyond that, it will be awesome just to have some comfortable, NORMAL weather! Most on the board have not seen temps below 60 since the late August front, even places like Asheville. Low 50s is going to feel so awesome! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Low of 48 incoming for my location tonight. #winning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 11, 2018 Author Share Posted October 11, 2018 It’s almost here!!!!!! Summer going out with a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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