Searching for Fall

[shaggy]

21 hours ago, drfranklin said:

absolutely incredible...I don't ever remember such an extended "summer"

for most of my life I've lived in TN/Upstate of SC..."Fall weather" (i.e. much lower humidity) always begins by just after Labor Day/by mid-Sept...the lingering humidity has been horrific...I feel like I live in FL

The humidity this year has been so much worse than I ever remember. Could be I'm getting older but usually by this time at work where I have no AC I am seeing cool mornings and long pants. This year I'm sweating my ass off everyday with ridiculous humidity. Just make it stop already.

[cbmclean]

23 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It’s been remarkable. Speaking of Florida, this September is on track to be Tampa’s warmest month on record.

Do you mean warmest September on record, or warmest month PERIOD.

[donsutherland1]

21 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Do you mean warmest September on record, or warmest month PERIOD.

Warmest month ever. The previous warmest month on record was June 1998. September 2018 will beat it. Records for Tampa go back to 1890.

[cbmclean]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Warmest month ever. The previous warmest month on record was June 1998. September 2018 will beat it. Records for Tampa go back to 1890.

Wow, that is unusual.  Actually, I find it unusual in the first place that its previous record month was a June.  I expect the vast majority of warmest months in the NH temperate zones are either July or August.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Wow, that is unusual.  Actually, I find it unusual in the first place that its previous record month was a June.  I expect the vast majority of warmest months in the NH temperate zones are either July or August.

It is unusual. The second half of September was really extraordinary. During that time, Tampa set five daily record high temperatures and tied another. Among those, it tied the monthly record high temperature, broke it on 9/29, and tied it on 9/30. It also set 6 record high minimum temperatures (including the highest minimum temperature for the month) and tied 4 other record high minimum temperatures.

The guidance suggests that this pattern could continue through at least the first week of October with the possibility that 2018 will eclipse the record for the warmest first week of October. That record was set just last year.

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Just unbelievable weather for the SE ... lucky us. And I HATE that we're seemingly not going to have a leaf season this year. Usually by this time the early trees, like dogwoods, red maples, crape myrtles, and a few others already have some decent spotty colors, especially on the tips, but almost nothing so far. A good many leaves have fallen but no color. I'm sure there will be some leaves that will change overnight in November but this is so stinkin depressing. Models in 10-15 day range still show no real fall weather. This is just unreal.

[Upstate Tiger]

7 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Just unbelievable weather for the SE ... lucky us. And I HATE that we're seemingly not going to have a leaf season this year. Usually by this time the early trees, like dogwoods, red maples, crape myrtles, and a few others already have some decent spotty colors, especially on the tips, but almost nothing so far. A good many leaves have fallen but no color. I'm sure there will be some leaves that will change overnight in November but this is so stinkin depressing. Models in 10-15 day range still show no real fall weather. This is just unreal.

Yep, it's the 3rd year in a row without traditional "fall", at least so far.  In 2016 we had the warm fall and all the forest fires, 2017 was just plain warm until the 2nd week of November and this year has also been above average to date.  Maybe see a cool down after next week.  Highs in the 30's are starting to show up later this week in Montana and Wyoming.    

[donsutherland1]

This morning's low temperature at Tampa was 79°. That sets a new record high minimum temperature for October 1. The previous record was 78°, which was set in 1902 and tied in 1989. The warmth rolls on.

[FallsLake]

26 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Yep, it's the 3rd year in a row without traditional "fall", at least so far.  In 2016 we had the warm fall and all the forest fires, 2017 was just plain warm until the 2nd week of November and this year has also been above average to date.  Maybe see a cool down after next week.  Highs in the 30's are starting to show up later this week in Montana and Wyoming.    

As the east/ SE has been above normal, the NW into Canada has been cold/snowy. This is actually good (..at our expense), it builds up snow cover that can help build/maintain cold later in the year. 

[Orangeburgwx]

10 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

As the east/ SE has been above normal, the NW into Canada has been cold/snowy. This is actually good (..at our expense), it builds up snow cover that can help build/maintain cold later in the year. 

That's a good point, because I read somewhere that during El Nino years, our cold base is in Alaska/Canada... The more cover they get the better off we are in this case

[DopplerWx]

euro and gfs thru the end of the run are STILL ridiculously warm.

 

this sucks.

[fountainguy97]

10 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

 

euro and gfs thru the end of the run are STILL ridiculously warm.

 

this sucks.

agreed. It sucks right now, but on the flip side our cold is bottled up right where we want it to build snow pack for a possible early start to winter.

 

That being said... we wont have a fall.  It will probably jump straight from this pattern to a winter pattern. LOL

[Lookout]

9 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

euro and gfs thru the end of the run are STILL ridiculously warm.

 

this sucks.

it sure does, This never ending  heat has been so depressing. Extremes normally average out in the long run and One would hope that maybe all this extreme heat means we will have lots of cold later but watch this winter end up being summer light. 

[Powerball]

FWIW, the humidity has dropped off a bit.

Dewpoints are now in the low 60s, lol.

[DopplerWx]

9 minutes ago, Powerball said:

FWIW, the humidity has dropped off a bit.

Dewpointa are now in the low 60s, lol.

yea i noticed it wasn't quite as hellish this morning, but still i would love some true fall dewpoints.

[donsutherland1]

At 2 pm, Tampa had a temperature of 93°. A short time earlier, it had reached 94°, which ties the daily record high for October 1, which was set last year.

[FallsLake]

14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 2 pm, Tampa had a temperature of 93°. A short time earlier, it had reached 94°, which ties the daily record high for October 1, which was set last year.

I feel for the Florida folks. We're way above normal in this part of the SE; but we are seeing more 80s/60s temps compared to summers 90s/70s. Florida is far enough south that basically the month of July (weather wise) is lasting for 6 months. 

[Snow dog]

53 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 2 pm, Tampa had a temperature of 93°. A short time earlier, it had reached 94°, which ties the daily record high for October 1, which was set last year.

Curious why Tampa is mentioned so often here?

[FallsLake]

7 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

Curious why Tampa is mentioned so often here?

It's part of the SE and is breaking many records. It's actually a good change. Discussion usually focuses on the Atlanta to RDU corridor.  

[donsutherland1]

33 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

Curious why Tampa is mentioned so often here?

Because of the historic nature of its ongoing late-season warm spell. From 9/16 through 10/1, Tampa has set or tied 7 record high temperatures (including setting and then tying a new monthly record high temperature for September) and set or tied 11 record high minimum temperatures (including setting a new monthly record high minimum temperature for September). The 9/16-10/1 period is the city's hottest 16-day period on record.

[cbmclean]

29 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Because of the historic nature of its ongoing late-season warm spell. From 9/16 through 10/1, Tampa has set or tied 7 record high temperatures (including setting and then tying a new monthly record high temperature for September) and set or tied 11 record high minimum temperatures (including setting a new monthly record high minimum temperature for September). The 9/16-10/1 period is the city's hottest 16-day period on record.

I have to admit I am curious, are the other Florida stations reporting similar records?

[donsutherland1]

45 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I have to admit I am curious, are the other Florida stations reporting similar records?

Cities such as Bradenton and Lakeland also had their warmest September on record, by 0.5° or more. Tampa's margin was a little larger, as the winds were predominantly offshore. Inland locations less affected by the sea breeze had smaller margins.

Some other Florida highlights: Gainesville and Key West had their warmest September on record. Jacksonville and Tallahassee had their 2nd warmest September on record.

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

GSP just completed a Sept which tied for the second warmest ever at 78.1 (1921). The high was 93, the low was 67, FOR THE WHOLE MONTH (craziness!). 9 days reached 90 or higher and only 12 mornings dropped below 70, almost all in the last half. For comparison, this July had a high of 94 with a low of 64. 8 days reached 90 or higher and 13 mornings dropped below 70. Insane!

CAE had an average of 81.9. The high was 97, the low was 66. A whopping 21 days reached 90 or higher, with 11 being 95 or higher. Only 4 mornings dropped below 70.

CLT had a monthly average of 78.9. The high was 94, the low was 64. 11 days reached 90 or higher and only 9 mornings dropped below 70.

[donsutherland1]

22 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

GSP just completed a Sept which tied for the second warmest ever at 78.1 (1921). The high was 93, the low was 67, FOR THE WHOLE MONTH (craziness!). 9 days reached 90 or higher and only 12 mornings dropped below 70, almost all in the last half. For comparison, this July had a high of 94 with a low of 64. 8 days reached 90 or higher and 13 mornings dropped below 70. Insane!

CAE had an average of 81.9. The high was 97, the low was 66. A whopping 21 days reached 90 or higher, with 11 being 95 or higher. Only 4 mornings dropped below 70.

CLT had a monthly average of 78.9. The high was 94, the low was 64. 11 days reached 90 or higher and only 9 mornings dropped below 70.

CHS had a mean temperature of 81.5°. The previous September record was 79.8°, which was set in 1980 and tied in 2016.

[cbmclean]

47 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Cities such as Bradenton and Lakeland also had their warmest September on record, by 0.5° or more. Tampa's margin was a little larger, as the winds were predominantly offshore. Inland locations less affected by the sea breeze had smaller margins.

Some other Florida highlights: Gainesville and Key West had their warmest September on record. Jacksonville and Tallahassee had their 2nd warmest September on record.

 

I'm not sure I understand the part about the winds.  Why did winds predominantly from the east (offshore) make Tampa relatively warmer than cities actually in the center of the peninsula, where I presume there would be the least moderation from the ocean?

[donsutherland1]

24 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I'm not sure I understand the part about the winds.  Why did winds predominantly from the east (offshore) make Tampa relatively warmer than cities actually in the center of the peninsula, where I presume there would be the least moderation from the ocean?

If the wind is onshore, Tampa's high temperatures are capped. As such, the mean temperature is lower than it would otherwise be. Throughout late September, the prevalent wind directions were either east or northeast, avoiding the cooling sea breeze. That's what allowed Tampa to break its September mark by more than 2° (while some inland areas beat their existing mark by 0.5° to 1.0°.

Today was another such case with no sea breeze. The temperature topped out at 96°, which surpassed the old October mark of 95°, which was set on October 9, 1941.

The prevalent wind direction from the daily climate report released a short time ago:

WIND (MPH)
  RESULTANT WIND SPEED   6   RESULTANT WIND DIRECTION  NE (50)
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    10   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION    NE (60)
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    15   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION    NE (50)
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     6.4

 

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

If the wind is onshore, Tampa's high temperatures are capped. As such, the mean temperature is lower than it would otherwise be. Throughout late September, the prevalent wind directions were either east or northeast, avoiding the cooling sea breeze. That's what allowed Tampa to break its September mark by more than 2° (while some inland areas beat their existing mark by 0.5° to 1.0°.

Today was another such case with no sea breeze. The temperature topped out at 96°, which surpassed the old October mark of 95°, which was set on October 9, 1941.

The prevalent wind direction from the daily climate report released a short time ago:

WIND (MPH)
  RESULTANT WIND SPEED   6   RESULTANT WIND DIRECTION  NE (50)
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    10   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION    NE (60)
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    15   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION    NE (50)
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     6.4

 

Thanks, Don.

[LithiaWx]

No relief on the horizon to this prolonged summer!

[donsutherland1]

55 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

No relief on the horizon to this prolonged summer!

Amazing streak.

[Isopycnic]

There’s hope in the 324hr range on the 06zgfs.