Searching for Fall

[No snow for you]

3 hours ago, franklin NCwx said:

Lol... the panic thread.  Winter cancel too.

Who plans on winter around here?

[Isopycnic]

I’m just hoping for a glimmer of hope to see a continental airmass and not this subtropical soup. 

[NCSNOW]

Gonna be a southern stream dominate pattern this year (STJ). Lets just hope we can set up the NE pacific right and get the split flow to work for us on the east coast. Gonna need some northern stream loving or we will get flooded with pacific origin air mass. Regardless if the El Nino is weak and west based. Its all about how the table sets up between the conus and Alaska. "Give me the Cold and I'll take my chances."  

[FallsLake]

7 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Gonna be a southern stream dominate pattern this year (STJ). Lets just hope we can set up the NE pacific right and get the split flow to work for us on the east coast. Gonna need some northern stream loving or we will get flooded with pacific origin air mass. Regardless if the El Nino is weak and west based. Its all about how the table sets up between the conus and Alaska. "Give me the Cold and I'll take my chances."  

Many of the analog years that have been floated around are CAD dominated; 2002-2003 is one of them (that was a fun year). 

And to be fair, I've seen a few analogs that were some of our worst years. But not as many. I think if we get our El Nino (..not strong and west) we'll be good.     

http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter/database

 

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

On 9/25/2018 at 1:02 AM, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Long range GFS continues to push much cooler air down and finally through the area Oct 5th. Many areas would be low 60s / mid 50s for highs with 40s for lows and even some 30s high elevation verbatim. Long way off, 240 +, and GFS has been showing a pattern changing cool down since early Sept, literally, so don't get too excited, but it as been there for quite a few runs, minus one last night. Man we are due!

Well so much for this. The front has been delayed now until the 8th on the 6z. And this is the problem, the carrot has been out front since mid Sept and we're no closer now than we were then. If the TWC two week outlook verifies there will be no lows below 60 for GSP through 10/10, the duration of the forecast. I'd put money there's never been a year where GSP didn't drop below 60 during the period from Sept 1-Oct 10. The averages for Oct 15 at GSP is 72/50. While we officially had a couple mornings in late August in the 50s, we could well go almost the first half of met fall without ever dropping below 60, let that sink in. Even AVL hasn't dropped below 61 this month!

[kvegas-wx]

Like I thought.  October hangs on with more of the same, just 80's instead of 90's, and then November will fall off a cliff.  We'll get about 2 weeks of fall this year and most of this board will go postal and start smashing their weather stations.  Please post any coupon codes you find for replacements.

Indian summer is one thing, but this month is a whole new ballgame.  We're making history in many ways.

[Waiting on snow]

9 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

Like I thought.  October hangs on with more of the same, just 80's instead of 90's, and then November will fall off a cliff.  We'll get about 2 weeks of fall this year and most of this board will go postal and start smashing their weather stations.  Please post any coupon codes you find for replacements.

Indian summer is one thing, but this month is a whole new ballgame.  We're making history in many ways.

Can't see any reason why it won't continue. Above average is the only certainty anymore. Especially the southeast. Sure, there are a couple months here and there every few years below normal. But not many. Regardless of the analogs and outlooks I'd put money met winter as a whole is above average here.

[LithiaWx]

Wake me up when September ends isn’t going to be long enough!  Green Day needs to give the SE a wake me up when October ends.

[Isopycnic]

Looks like another backdrop front next weekend (10/5) but no relief from humidity on the horizon according to the 06z gfs. 

[BullCityWx]

33 minutes ago, Isopycnic said:

Looks like another backdrop front next weekend (10/5) but no relief from humidity on the horizon according to the 06z gfs. 

Setting up to potentially be an all time warm month, even if the back half of October is just normal.

[FallsLake]

1 hour ago, Queencitywx said:

Setting up to potentially be an all time warm month, even if the back half of October is just normal.

Yeah the latest GFS shows no hope. There could be many areas that do not see lows in the 50s through the mid October. Usually we're tracking our first frost/freeze ~ mid October. 

[DopplerWx]

Brad P noted that this will likely be the first year since 1933 that CLT hasn't dipped below 60.  Crazy stat as our avg lows now should be around 55 right now.  Are some low dew points too much to ask for!?  

[FallsLake]

12z GFS has flipped from its earlier run and now shows a major cold front for the SE next weekend (8-9 days out). Do I believe it, not yet...  

Dew points for next weekend:

[BK Rambler]

Latest dates for first <60 temp:

ATL  10/8 (1911, 1925) only five years in total occurring in October - ATL has yet to reach 60 this year

CLT 10/5 (1881) only three years total occurring in October - note CLT hit 54 on 8/24 this year so curious about Brad P's statement

Greenville, SC (not GSP) 10/13 (2005) only instance in October (note GVL was 61 and GSP was 59 the morning of 8/24 this year)

Raleigh (not RDU) 9/25 (1906) - note Raleigh was in the fifties 8/24 & 25 this year

 

[DopplerWx]

53 minutes ago, BK Rambler said:

Latest dates for first <60 temp:

ATL  10/8 (1911, 1925) only five years in total occurring in October - ATL has yet to reach 60 this year

CLT 10/5 (1881) only three years total occurring in October - note CLT hit 54 on 8/24 this year so curious about Brad P's statement

Greenville, SC (not GSP) 10/13 (2005) only instance in October (note GVL was 61 and GSP was 59 the morning of 8/24 this year)

Raleigh (not RDU) 9/25 (1906) - note Raleigh was in the fifties 8/24 & 25 this year

 

he meant for the month of september. sorry i meant to say no temps below 60 for the month of sept.

[FallsLake]

Latest Euro is also on board for a big cool down next weekend. Still far out but gives us some hope.

 

[Powerball]

6 hours ago, FallsLake said:

12z GFS has flipped from its earlier run and now shows a major cold front for the SE next weekend (8-9 days out). Do I believe it, not yet...  

Dew points for next weekend:

 

4 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Latest Euro is also on board for a big cool down next weekend. Still far out but gives us some hope.

 

With a +NAO / -PNA? 

Don't hold your breath 

[BK Rambler]

8 hours ago, DopplerWx said:

he meant for the month of september. sorry i meant to say no temps below 60 for the month of sept.

Thanks for clarifying!  Just looking back at CLT's September records there are four other years earlier than 1933 where the monthly min was 60 or greater.

[Iceagewhereartthou]

10 hours ago, BK Rambler said:

Latest dates for first <60 temp:

ATL  10/8 (1911, 1925) only five years in total occurring in October - ATL has yet to reach 60 this year

CLT 10/5 (1881) only three years total occurring in October - note CLT hit 54 on 8/24 this year so curious about Brad P's statement

Greenville, SC (not GSP) 10/13 (2005) only instance in October (note GVL was 61 and GSP was 59 the morning of 8/24 this year)

Raleigh (not RDU) 9/25 (1906) - note Raleigh was in the fifties 8/24 & 25 this year

 

Very interesting data, thanks for posting. I'm actually shocked GMU made it all the way to 10/13 without a sub 60 in 2005. You are correct that GSP had a 59 back in August, and many outlying areas went lower and had more than one night. I had 2 or 3 mornings below 60 with the lowest 54 here in Easley, the only brush of fall so far! But this is just craziness. Has AVL ever had a Sept that never got below 60? I would be beyond shocked.

[BK Rambler]

8 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Very interesting data, thanks for posting. I'm actually shocked GMU made it all the way to 10/13 without a sub 60 in 2005. You are correct that GSP had a 59 back in August, and many outlying areas went lower and had more than one night. I had 2 or 3 mornings below 60 with the lowest 54 here in Easley, the only brush of fall so far! But this is just craziness. Has AVL ever had a Sept that never got below 60? I would be beyond shocked.

This September would be the first.  I see the weekend morning forecasts are for right at 60.

[Iceagewhereartthou]

I'm gonna need some support. TWC  latest says I don't get below 65 for the next 15 days and all next week I'm mid 80s.

This is turning into a fall nightmare. I mean, seriously dude, enough is enough.

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

47 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I'm gonna need some support. TWC  latest says I don't get below 65 for the next 15 days and all next week I'm mid 80s.

This is turning into a fall nightmare. I mean, seriously dude, enough is enough.

You're putting stock in a 15 day forecast from the Weather Channel? Things are getting desperate around here.

[BK Rambler]

18Z GFS keeps a huge 588+ ridge parked over us for nearly the entire run - sometimes stretches from Cabo San Lucas to Bermuda 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

1 hour ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

You're putting stock in a 15 day forecast from the Weather Channel? Things are getting desperate around here.

Not usually, but I'll  bet it's right on the money this time. I know it is basically a printout of the GFS,  but man that thing is a hot garbage can for us and it seems to be correct with the never coming cool down

[Powerball]

7 hours ago, BK Rambler said:

18Z GFS keeps a huge 588+ ridge parked over us for nearly the entire run - sometimes stretches from Cabo San Lucas to Bermuda 

GGEM pops a massive 594+ DM ridge over NC by the end of its run (240hr). 

[donsutherland1]

On ‎9‎/‎26‎/‎2018 at 9:37 AM, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Well so much for this. The front has been delayed now until the 8th on the 6z. And this is the problem, the carrot has been out front since mid Sept and we're no closer now than we were then. If the TWC two week outlook verifies there will be no lows below 60 for GSP through 10/10, the duration of the forecast. I'd put money there's never been a year where GSP didn't drop below 60 during the period from Sept 1-Oct 10. The averages for Oct 15 at GSP is 72/50. While we officially had a couple mornings in late August in the 50s, we could well go almost the first half of met fall without ever dropping below 60, let that sink in. Even AVL hasn't dropped below 61 this month!

No year saw GSP have 0 readings below 60° in the September 1-October 10 period. 2016 had the lowest number: 4.

[FallsLake]

So close, RDU down to 60 this morning. Maybe tonight. More likely on Sunday night but that would be Oct 1st when that occurred. So still a good chance that RDU doesn't see a below 60 night in September. 

[drfranklin]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

No year saw GSP have 0 readings below 60° in the September 1-October 10 period. 2016 had the lowest number: 4.

absolutely incredible...I don't ever remember such an extended "summer"

for most of my life I've lived in TN/Upstate of SC..."Fall weather" (i.e. much lower humidity) always begins by just after Labor Day/by mid-Sept...the lingering humidity has been horrific...I feel like I live in FL

[donsutherland1]

21 minutes ago, drfranklin said:

absolutely incredible...I don't ever remember such an extended "summer"

for most of my life I've lived in TN/Upstate of SC..."Fall weather" (i.e. much lower humidity) always begins by just after Labor Day/by mid-Sept...the lingering humidity has been horrific...I feel like I live in FL

It’s been remarkable. Speaking of Florida, this September is on track to be Tampa’s warmest month on record.

[GunBlade]

The strangest weather around CLT I can remember.  I remember summers being brutal with 30+ in a row 90 degree days and lots of 100 degree days throughout summer, but cool temps by this time of year.  This year it seems like we have spent May through September between 85 and 95 degrees.  Few extremely hot days compared to years past but never a break from the temps.