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Searching for Fall


Isopycnic
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1 hour ago, Isopycnic said:

There’s hope in the 324hr range on the 06zgfs. :(

Eventually the fantasy range models will be right. There's been many false hopes going back into September, but this ridge wont stay anchored forever. It's getting colder to the north and the highs that can supply the cold/cool air are getting stronger. We'll get to a point were even a lake cutter storm will push a cold front through our region.  

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38 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Eventually the fantasy range models will be right. There's been many false hopes going back into September, but this ridge wont stay anchored forever. It's getting colder to the north and the highs that can supply the cold/cool air are getting stronger. We'll get to a point were even a lake cutter storm will push a cold front through our region.  

Yeah they continue to show the period around the 13th as promising so that it encouraging. 

Only problem is that before that they were zoned in on the period around the 9th and 10th. 

And before that it was the 5th and 6th that was going to be the real first front. 

Except they had been touting the 2nd and 3rd as the change of airmasses.

But the end of September,  27th and 28th were going to bring the real relief.

But before that...

 

:wacko2:

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3 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Yeah they continue to show the period around the 13th as promising so that it encouraging. 

Only problem is that before that they were zoned in on the period around the 9th and 10th. 

And before that it was the 5th and 6th that was going to be the real first front. 

Except they had been touting the 2nd and 3rd as the change of airmasses.

But the end of September,  27th and 28th were going to bring the real relief.

But before that...

 

:wacko2:

Indeed!

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Well, we had 64˚ for a low this morning in Saluda NC, so it's a start.  However 64˚ with fog is still crappy fall weather.  I noticed two things last night.  The poplar trees are dropping brown leaves and the underbrush behind my house is fading in color.  Also, the Katydids are even tired of this heat, they stopped their nightly calls last night completely.

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14 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Yep, and just today the GFS has pushed it back yet again, now showing 14th-16th. It's all a hoax, cool downs are a thing of the past for the SE. 

don't even need a cold front, just getting us to near average would be a godsend. crazy our avg lows now are in the low to mid 50s! by 10/14 our avg low will be 49 and we likely won't even be sniffing upper 50s!  brad p tweeted earlier that september was so warm in charlotte that it was warmer than 73 of the July's on record. (1878-2018).

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30 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

don't even need a cold front, just getting us to near average would be a godsend. crazy our avg lows now are in the low to mid 50s! by 10/14 our avg low will be 49 and we likely won't even be sniffing upper 50s!  brad p tweeted earlier that september was so warm in charlotte that it was warmer than 73 of the July's on record. (1878-2018).

Thing is it will take a major cold frontal passage just to get us to normal! 

That's an insane stat, and looks like Oct is starting way above normal too! 

If the "averages even out over time" theory (aka "bathtub") ever works we'll be due some EPIC cold for years to make up for the last couple decades!

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2 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Thing is it will take a major cold frontal passage just to get us to normal! 

That's an insane stat, and looks like Oct is starting way above normal too! 

If the "averages even out over time" theory (aka "bathtub") ever works we'll be due some EPIC cold for years to make up for the last couple decades!

Yeah but, me and you both know that's not going to happen. Welcome to the new normal for the se. Our good ole friend the se ridge has became a permanent fixture for the better part of a decade.

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Yeah but, me and you both know that's not going to happen. Welcome to the new normal for the se. Our good ole friend the se ridge has became a permanent fixture for the better part of a decade.

Which means a lot more hurricanes making landfall in the se and the gulf coast.

 

 

.

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53 minutes ago, Isopycnic said:

Were reeling this in! At 288hr

 

 

7E21EC87-AEDD-442D-851F-8BDFED909178.jpeg

I'm thinking this will be the real deal. Mainly because this ridge just can't hold for ever.

On the flip side of things (meteorologically wise), I'm getting interested to see how long it can last. Wouldn't it be amazing (..in a bad way) if the ridge held all month; whereas many folks don't see lows in the 50s until November.     

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18 hours ago, Waiting on snow said:

Yeah but, me and you both know that's not going to happen. Welcome to the new normal for the se. Our good ole friend the se ridge has became a permanent fixture for the better part of a decade.

Relax folks .... sure, this is not normal, but we are going to benefit from this later. As was mentioned before, snow-pack is building nicely in the source region of NW Canada. That is a good thing for us. Besides, cold in October is a waste anyway. Give the pattern time to evolve. We will reap the rewards in time. By December, this will be a distant memory.

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21 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Relax folks .... sure, this is not normal, but we are going to benefit from this later. As was mentioned before, snow-pack is building nicely in the source region of NW Canada. That is a good thing for us. Besides, cold in October is a waste anyway. Give the pattern time to evolve. We will reap the rewards in time. By December, this will be a distant memory.

Sentence 1: Unfortunately it seems to be the NEW normal.

Sentences 2-3 : Nothing more depressing than other people's snow :P

Sentence 4: Cold is NEVER,  EVER a waste! Bring it on :snowman:

Sentence 5: Of course we have nothing to do with it, and it WILL change eventually,  but it would sure be nice to get stuck in a GOOD pattern for six weeks every now and then:weenie:

Sentence 6: We certainly hope so but more times than not in the SE we get the pain without the pleasure :cry:

Sentence 7: We hope, but December can certainly be spring like, as we've  seen a couple years recently.  Don't think we'll  ever forget this Sept.:fulltilt:

Bring on FALL!!!!!:wub:

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6 hours ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Relax folks .... sure, this is not normal, but we are going to benefit from this later. As was mentioned before, snow-pack is building nicely in the source region of NW Canada. That is a good thing for us. Besides, cold in October is a waste anyway. Give the pattern time to evolve. We will reap the rewards in time. By December, this will be a distant memory.

I try to keep my expectations low around here. I'm a firm believer that if you want cold and snow in the se you need a -NAO. Sure it snows without it just as much as with it. But as far as sustained cold and multiple snow chances it's a must. I wish we could forecast that tele better. Regardless of the QBO, enso, sea surface temps, SSW, SAI it's managed to be positive for the better part of a decade. Why should I be optimistic about this year?

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6 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Sentence 1: Unfortunately it seems to be the NEW normal.

Sentences 2-3 : Nothing more depressing than other people's snow :P

Sentence 4: Cold is NEVER,  EVER a waste! Bring it on :snowman:

Sentence 5: Of course we have nothing to do with it, and it WILL change eventually,  but it would sure be nice to get stuck in a GOOD pattern for six weeks every now and then:weenie:

Sentence 6: We certainly hope so but more times than not in the SE we get the pain without the pleasure :cry:

Sentence 7: We hope, but December can certainly be spring like, as we've  seen a couple years recently.  Don't think we'll  ever forget this Sept.:fulltilt:

Bring on FALL!!!!!:wub:

I agree. And honestly the snowpack buildup is good. But we have to get rid of the ridge first to get the cold here. I know it won't last forever. But at the same time a pattern flip to zonal for 2 weeks and that snowcover is history and we're starting over. The Siberian snow theory has failed miserably the last few years. High soil moisture sure hasn't kept this ridge away. Just extremely frustrating to keep smashing heat records year after year and want the opposite!

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1 hour ago, WarmNose said:

It snowed in October 3-4 years ago. This heat is NOT the new normal. Fwiw the rest of that winter was a major dud imby. Keep the heat pumping! 

To be fair, that was Halloween night going into November 1st. I grew up in and have lived in these mountains my entire life. Even here it doesn't snow in October until late October if at all, and usually at high elevations. 

To that point, I remember plenty of Halloween's with my children, trick or treating in shorts and short sleeves, and sweating, even here in the mountains. Heat in October is normal. Yes this heat is rather extreme due to its unwavering nature but heat now isn't abnormal. This weather pattern has some of you vexed and thinking irrationally. 

It'll change folks. Probably sooner than later. Hang in there. 

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9 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

To be fair, that was Halloween night going into November 1st. I grew up in and have lived in these mountains my entire life. Even here it doesn't snow in October until late October if at all, and usually at high elevations. 

To that point, I remember plenty of Halloween's with my children, trick or treating in shorts and short sleeves, and sweating, even here in the mountains. Heat in October is normal. Yes this rather extreme due to its unwavering nature but heat now isn't abnormal. This weather pattern has some of you vexed and thinking irrationally. 

It'll change folks. Probably sooner than later. Hang in there. 

Absolutely. I’m no old timer but I was born in the 80’s and I can remember more mild Halloween nights than cold. There’s nothing quite like a chilly Halloween night

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36 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Absolutely. I’m no old timer but I was born in the 80’s and I can remember more mild Halloween nights than cold. There’s nothing quite like a chilly Halloween night

Last year I went the last weekend of Octoberfest in Helen , GA (28th or 29th?) it was sooooo cold!! Think the temp was around 37 all afternoon, mostly cloudy , and flurries from time to time, it was absolutely amazing, I will remember it forever! Winds were also gusting to 30+ MPH!! The rest of the winter absolutely sucked IMBY! Outside of the Jan cold snap! I’d rather hold off on the cold as long as possible, so we don’t end up hunting the reload that never happens (last half of Jan/All of Feb) last year! Or comes in March/April, when it’s useless for most! This winter will be good, I can tell by the size of the nuts!

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In truth, I'm not even asking for "cold" right now. It doesn't have to be 10 below average ) though that would be nice), I would just like to see, you know, average...

Just having a little crisp, at least at night, a drop in humidity (like is supposed to happen in Oct.) , a nip to get the leaves starting to change, some of those bright blue afternoons without the summer like feel...

Ok, gotta stop, getting frustrated again :lol:

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I was looking at a listing of GSP 's top five warmest for each month, and it shows what many of us have been experiencing and referencing of late; an alarming number of record and near record warm months just in the last few years. Going back to 2010, there have been 105 months, not counting this Oct. 

The number 1 and 3 warmest Februaries on record, 2017 and 2018

The number 1 and 4 Marches, 2012 and 2016

The number 1 April 2017

The number 4 May, 2018

The number 2 June, 2010

The number 3, 4, and 5 July s, 2016, 2011, 2010

The number 3 and 5 Augusta, 2011 and 2016

The number 2 and 4 Septembers, 2018 and 2016

The number 5 October, 2016

And the number 1 December, 2015.

That is 16 of our last 105 months have been an all-time top five warmest for that particular month (with 4 having been the warmest ever)! Even the previous decade, the 2000s, which was a warm decade only had 7 total, and that was a lot.

By contrast, we have only had 1 top 5 coldest since 2010, that was our number 5 December 2010. And only one other going back to 2000; number 3 December, 2000. 

Disturbing trends!

 

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