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September 2018 temperature forecast contest and Regional Rumble

Roger Smith

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Forecasts for September, 2018

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

wxdude64 _ (-6%) _M A ___ +4.2 _+4.5 _+4.8 ___ +3.1 _+0.5 _--0.4 ___ --1.9 _+0.6 _--2.6

RJay ___________ NYC ____ +3.5 _+4.0 _+4.0 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _+2.0 ___ +2.5 _+1.5 _+1.0

Tom ___________ PHL _____+3.1 _+3.5 _+3.6 ___ +2.9 _+2.1 _+1.9 ___ +1.6 _+0.8 _+0.6

Roger Smith ____ C + W ___ +3.1 _+3.4 _+3.8 ___ +2.5 _+0.7 _+0.7 ___ +2.4 _+0.8 _+1.0

wxallannj _______ NYC ____ +2.6 _+4.1 _+3.9 ___ +2.0 _+1.8 _+1.5 ___ +1.3 _+1.5 _--0.5

RodneyS ________ M A ____ +2.6 _+3.0 _+3.1 ___ +4.2 _+1.0 _+0.8 ___ +1.8 _+1.0 _--0.3

dmillz25 __ (-2%) _NYC ___ +2.5 _+2.9 _+3.3 ___ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.5 ___ +1.3 _+1.0 _+1.0

 

__ Consensus ____________ +2.5 _+3.0 _+3.1 ___ +2.0 _+1.0 _+1.2 ___ +0.7 _+1.0 _+0.6

 

BKViking __ (-1%) _NYC ___ +2.4 _+3.0 _+3.1 ___ +1.8 _+0.3 _+1.2 ___ +0.7 _+0.8 _+1.0

DonSutherland.1 _ NYC ____ +2.4 _+2.5 _+2.0 ___ +2.2 _+1.4 _+0.4 ___ +0.1 _+1.5 _+2.2

Stebo _________ GL/OV ___ +2.3 _+2.8 _+2.5 ___ +1.5 _+1.2 _+1.0 ___ --1.0 _--0.5 _--1.0

jaxjagman ______ TNV ____ +2.0 _+2.4 _+1.9 ___ +1.3 _+1.0 _+1.3 ___ +0.3 _+1.4 __0.0

hudsonvalley21 __ NYC ____ +1.7 _+2.1 _+2.8 ___ +0.9 _+0.7 _+1.6 ___ +0.5 _+1.8 _+1.6

Scotty Lightning __ PHL ____ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+0.5

 

___ Normal ____________ 0.0__0.0__0.0 ____0.0__0.0__0.0 ____ 0.0__0.0__0.0

______________________________________________________________

color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts, however, Normal is colder for first five. 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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First report on anomalies and projections ...

 

__________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

_______ (7d) ______ +9.0 _+7.1 _+9.1 ___ +7.1 _+4.6 _--0.8 ___ --0.9 _+0.1 _+2.8

 

_____ (p14d)_NWS __+5.5 _+4.5 _+5.5 ___ +4.5 _+3.8 _--0.5 ___ +1.8 _+0.3 _+0.4

_____ (p24d)_GFS ___+3.5 _+3.0 _+4.0 ___ +3.0 _+3.0 _+0.5 ___ +3.0 _+0.5 __0.0

 

No new seasonal max so far this month, contest table is back in the July thread. 

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Roger Smith

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Seasonal Max 2018 contest

-- updated Sep 11th ... no new max in August or early September, and table has now migrated to the September thread ...

... any changes will also be edited in here, ATL added one degree to 95 on Sept 14th and this changes the leaderboard as shown below.

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

 

Max to date ____________ 98 __ 96 __ 98 ___ 97 __ 94 __101 ___105 _ 116 __ 94

 

Scotty Lightning ____________103 _ 100 __ 97 _____ 98 _ 101 _ 107 _____ 98 _ 114 __ 96

RJay _____________________ 102 _ 100 __ 99 _____101 _ 103 _ 103 ____102 _ 117 __ 95

Tom _____________________ 102 __ 99 __ 98 _____101 _ 103 _ 103 _____ 98 _ 119 __ 94

mappy ___________________ 102 __ 99 __ 96 _____100 __ 97 _ 102 _____ 96 _ 118 __ 90

hudsonvalley21 ____________ 101 __ 98 __ 99 _____ 99 __ 97 _ 104 _____ 99 _ 115 __ 90

wxdude64 _________________100 _ 100 __ 99 _____ 98 _ 101 _ 102 ____ 100 _ 117 __ 95

dmillz25 __________________ 100 _ 100 __ 97 ____ 101 _ 101 _ 103 _____100 _ 119 __ 95

so_whats_happening ________100 __ 99 _ 101 _____ 98 __ 97 _ 103 _____101 _ 119 __ 98

 

___ Consensus (mean) ______ 100 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 99 __ 99 _ 102 _____ 98 _ 116 __ 93

 

Roger Smith _______________100 __ 98 _ 100 _____ 98 _ 102 _ 104 _____107 _ 122 __ 93

Stebo ____________________ 100 __ 97 __ 95 ____ 101 __ 98 _ 103 _____ 97 _ 116 __ 92

DonSutherland.1 ____________ 99 __ 98 __ 97 _____ 95 __ 96 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 116 __ 88

BKViking ___________________99 __ 97 __ 95 _____ 99 __ 98 _ 100 _____ 95 _ 116 __ 91

wxallannj __________________ 99 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 98 __ 94 __ 98 _____ 98 _ 116 __ 91

jaxjagman _________________ 98 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 97 __ 99 __ 98 _____ 97 _ 121 __ 93

RodneyS ___________________97 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 94 __ 96 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 117 __ 89

Orangeburgwx ______________ 97 __ 93 __ 91 _____99 _ 102 _ 101 _____ 87 _ 105 __ 90 

 

 

(table of departures -- red numbers can get higher, black numbers can get lower)

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS_ORD_ATL_IAH_DEN_PHX_SEA __ Total

 

DonSutherland.1 ____________1 __ 2 __ 1 _____ 2 __ 1 __ 0 _____ 5 __ 0 __ 6 _____ 18

wxallannj _________________ 1 __ 0 __ 3 _____ 1 __ 1 __ 3 _____  7 __ 0 __ 3 _____ 19

RodneyS __________________ 1 __ 0 __ 3 _____ 3 __ 1 __ 0 _____ 5 __ 1 __ 5 _____ 19

___ Consensus (mean) ______ 2 __ 3 __ 1 _____ 2 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 7 __ 0 __ 1 _____ 21

wxdude64 _________________2 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 1 __ 6 __ 1 _____ 5 __ 1 __ 1 _____ 22

BKViking __________________1 __ 1 __ 3 _____ 2 __ 3 __ 1 _____10 __ 0 __ 3 _____ 24

hudsonvalley21 ____________ 3 __ 2 __ 1 _____ 2 __ 2 __ 3 _____ 6 __ 1 __ 4 _____ 24

so_whats_happening ________2 __ 3 __ 3 _____ 1 __ 2 __ 2 _____ 4 __ 3 __ 4 _____ 24

Stebo ____________________ 2 __ 1 __ 3 _____ 4 __ 3 __ 2 _____ 8 __ 0 __ 2 _____ 25

jaxjagman ________________ 0 __ 3 __ 1 _____ 0 __ 4 __ 3 _____ 8 __ 5 __ 1  _____ 25

Roger Smith _______________ 2 __ 2 __ 2 _____ 1 __ 7 __ 3 _____ 2 __ 6 __ 1 _____ 26 

RJay _____________________ 4 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 4 __ 8 __ 2 _____ 3 __ 1 __ 1 _____ 28

dmillz25 __________________ 2 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 4 __ 6 __ 2 _____ 5 __ 3 __ 1 _____ 28

mappy ___________________ 4 __ 3 __ 2 _____ 3 __ 2 __ 1 _____ 9 __ 2 __ 4 _____ 30

Tom _____________________ 4 __ 3 __ 0 _____ 4 __ 8 __ 2 _____ 7 __ 3 __ 0 _____ 31

Scotty Lightning ____________5 __ 4 __ 1 _____ 1 __ 6 __ 6 _____ 7 __ 2 __ 2 _____ 34

Orangeburgwx _____________1 __ 3 __ 7 _____ 2 __ 7 __ 0 ____ 18__11 __ 4 _____ 53

_____________________________________________________________

lowest total departures in each group:

 

eastern three -- 4 __ DonS, wxallannj, jaxjagman, RodneyS

central three -- 3 __ DonSutherland.1

western three -- 5 __ RJay

 

most perfect forecasts (to date) __ 2 __ DonS, wxallannj, RodneyS, jaxjagman, Tom

kept all departures within 4 deg __ so_whats_happening (5 __ RodneyS)

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Roger Smith

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Updated anomaly tracker continued ... actuals compare with predictions made seven days before (colors same). 

 

__________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

_______ (7d) ______ +9.0 _+7.1 _+9.1 ___ +7.1 _+4.6 _--0.8 ___ --0.9 _+0.1 _+2.8

______ (14d) ______ +4.5 _+2.2 _+4.6 ___ +4.5 _+5.5 _--1.2 ___ +4.3 _+2.2 _+1.5

______ (21d) ______ +5.1 _+3.3 _+4.8 ___ +6.5 _+6.7 _+0.8 ___ +6.2 _+2.6 _+0.5

______ (24d) ______ +4.2 _+2.8 _+3.9 ___ +5.7 _+6.9 _+0.8 ___ +6.5 _+2.9 _+0.4

______ (28d) ______ +4.5 _+2.9 _+4.2e___+5.0 _+7.3 _+0.9 ___ +4.8e_+3.4 _+0.9

 

_____ (p14d)_NWS __+5.5 _+4.5 _+5.5 ___ +4.5 _+3.8 _--0.5 ___ +1.8 _+0.3 _+0.4

_____ (p21d)_NWS __+4.0 _+3.0 _+4.5 ___ +6.0 _+6.0 __0.0 ___ +6.2 _+2.5 _+0.5

_____ (p28d)_NWS __+3.8 _+2.5 _+3.6 ___ +5.0 _+6.0 _+1.7 ___ +5.0 _+2.5 _+1.2

 

_8th_ (p24d)_GFS ___+3.5 _+3.0 _+4.0 ___ +3.0 _+3.0 _+0.5 ___ +3.0 _+0.5 __0.0

15th_ (p30d)_GFS ___+3.5 _+2.5 _+3.5 ___ +4.5 _+4.0 _+0.5 ___ +4.0 _+2.0 _+0.5

22nd_ (p30d)_GFS*__ +4.0 _+3.0 _+4.0 ___ +5.0 _+6.0 _+2.0 ___ +5.0 _+2.5 _+1.0

25th_ (p30d)_NWS^__+4.0 _+3.0 _+3.5 ___ +5.0 _+6.4 _+1.0 ___ +5.5 _+2.5 _+1.0

29th_ (p30d)_NWS^__+4.0 _+2.5 _+3.7 ___ +4.7 _+7.2 _+1.0 ___ +5.0 _+3.0 _+1.0

Final anomalies ______+4.4_+2.7_+4.1 ___+4.3_+7.4_+0.9 ___+4.7_+3.4_+1.0

 

* this entry uses seven days of NWS forecasts (see p28d above) and two days of GFS (29-30).

^ later entries will use only NWS forecasts after 24d. 

note: NWS forecasts did very well to 21st, the average error only 0.47 deg. (west almost perfect)

25th _ The anomalies through 24 days are posted, the comparison (orange) is to the 16-day forecast made on the 8th.

That forecast, with nine days from GFS 8-16 day, with average error of 1.57 deg. That would equate to a contest score of 648 adjusted to 690 with the minimum scoring applied to ATL and DEN where these forecasts were most in error but still slightly warmer than our top forecasts. Without those two stations the average error was 0.97 deg.

Provisionals have been changed on 25th for BOS (down 0.5) and IAH (down 1.0), also ATL/DEN are now even higher but scoring there is already settled by the minimum progression system (max score 60 etc). 

29th _ The past week had a good forecast performance from NWS numbers (0.57 average error). Some of the provisionals have been tweaked, changes to ATL and DEN will not affect scoring already settled by the max-score-60 method. 

Oct 1st _ Final anomalies have been posted. Confirmed values in bold type. Scoring will be adjusted until finalized (estimated by 18z Monday).

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Final scoring for September 2018

Scores are based on confirmed anomalies for end of month in previous post.

Late penalty reductions of 1 or 2 per cent are in the score line, * for each point ...

... a separate reduced score line is shown for wxdude64 who drops 6%.

High scores in red are also extreme forecast winners (at present). High score in orange is an extreme forecast winner from second most extreme (BOS) or tie on points due to late penalty reduction for extreme forecast (DCA). Score in orange with ^ symbol is extreme forecast "loss" (BOS). 

High scores in blue would be for coldest forecasts but this does not apply, scores in blue instead show results for coldest forecasts ... other high scores are in bold type.

Raw scores for ATL and DEN are too low by rules, boosted to 60-55-50-45-40-35-30-25-20-16-12-08-04 (no raw scores were above the progression). 

There was a four-way tie for 35 for ATL, also consensus which does not alter other scores, so the next score after 35 was 16 (two tied). 

 

FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS __ east __ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent __c/e___ DEN_PHX_SEA __ west ___ TOTAL

 

RJay ___________ NYC ____ 82 _ 74 _ 98 ___254 ___ 74 _ 60 _ 78 ___ 212 __ 466 ___ 60 _ 62_100__ 222____ 688

RodneyS ________ M A ____ 64 _ 94 _ 80 ___ 238 ___ 98 _ 35 _ 98 ___231 __469 ___ 50 _ 52 _ 74 __ 176 ____ 645

Tom ___________ PHL _____74 _ 84 _ 90___ 248 ___ 72 _ 55 _ 80 ___ 207 __ 455 ___ 45 _ 48 _ 92 __ 185 ____ 640

Roger Smith ____ C + W ___ 74 _ 86 _ 94 ___254___ 64 _ 16 _ 96 ___ 176 __ 430 ___ 55 _ 48 _100__ 203 ____ 633

wxallannj _______ NYC ____ 64 _ 72 _ 96 ___ 232 ___ 54 _ 50 _ 88 ___ 192 __ 424 ___ 40 _ 62 _ 70 __ 172 ____ 596

 

__ Consensus ____________ 62 _ 94 _ 80 ___ 236 ___ 54 _ 35 _ 94 ___ 183 __ 419 ___ 30 _ 52 _ 92 __ 174 ____ 593

 

dmillz25 __ (-2%) _NYC ___ 61*_ 94** 82**__ 237 ___ 43*_34*_86**__ 163 __ 400 ___ 39*_51*_98**_188____ 588

DonSutherland.1 _ NYC ____ 60 _ 96 _ 58 ___ 214 ___ 58 _ 45 _ 90 ___ 193 __ 407 ___ 12 _ 62 _ 76 __ 150 ____ 557

BKViking __ (-1%) _NYC ___ 59*_ 93*_ 79*__ 231 ___ 49*_ 04 _ 93*__ 146 __ 377 ___ 30 _ 48 _ 99*__ 177____ 554

jaxjagman ______ TNV ____ 52 _ 94 _ 56 ___ 202 ___ 40 _ 35 _ 92 ___ 167 __ 369 ___ 16 _ 60 _ 80 __ 156 ____ 525

hudsonvalley21 __ NYC ____ 46 _ 88 _ 74 ___ 208 ___ 32 _ 16 _ 86 ___ 134 __ 342 ___ 25 _ 68 _ 88 __ 181 ____ 523

Stebo _________ GL/OV ___ 58 _ 98 _ 68 ___ 224 ___ 44 _ 40 _ 98___ 182 __ 406 ___ 08 _ 22 _ 60 __ 090 ____ 496

Scotty Lightning __ PHL ____ 42 _ 66 _ 38 ___ 146 ___ 24 _ 35 _ 98___ 157 __ 303 ___ 25 _ 52 _ 90 __ 167 ____ 470

wxdude64 _______ M A ____96 _ 64 _ 86 ___ 246 ___ 76 _ 08 _ 74 ___ 158 __ 404 ___ 04 _ 44 _ 28 __ 076 _ 480

_________ (-6%) _________90 _ 60 _ 81 ___ 231 ___ 71 _ 08 _ 70 ___ 149 __ 380 ___ 04 _ 41 _ 26 __ 071 ____ 451

 

___ Normal ___________12 _ 46 _18 __ 076 __ 14 _ 00 _82 __ 096 __ 172 __ 10 _ 32 _ 80 __122 ___ 294

______________________________________________________________

 

Final scoring -- Regional Rumble for September 2018

 

Region ____________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ___ Totals

New York City _______254 _____ 212 _____ 222 ______ 688

Mid Atlantic ________ 238 _____ 231 _____ 176 ______ 645

Philadelphia ________ 248 _____ 207 _____ 185 ______ 640

Central + Western ___ 254 _____ 176 _____ 203 ______ 633

__ Consensus _______ 236 _____ 183 _____ 174 ______ 593

TN Valley __________ 202 _____ 167 _____ 156 ______ 525

Great Lakes / OH val _ 224 _____ 182 _____ 090 ______ 496

___ Normal _________076 _____ 096 _____ 122 ______ 294

__________________________________________________________________

 

Annual scoring update in next post. 

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--- -- <<<<==== Updated Annual Scoring Jan - Sep 2018 ====>>>> -- ----

 

  Part One: Eastern and Central (Original Six) 

... best scores, first six numbers are for six locations, next two for eastern and central totals, then months won (red)

... station totals in red indicate best total scores, eastern and central in bold indicate best subtotals.

... when normal or consensus have high scores, forecasters with high scores also shown.

... May (none in July) best scores indicated for both "AfewUniverses b n" and if he had one, for any regular, marked*

... these second awards would be withdrawn if "AfewU bn" enters at least five  three months including May by end of year (did not in June, did in July, not in Aug or Sep).

... as an example, 2* for me at DCA would revert to 1 if withdrawn, any 1* would revert to 0 (these may change to higher values in later months)

... same protocol will be applied to any high scores of Mercurial, JAN high scores c/e and all nine, and four other added regular forecaster high scores marked ^

... ... but H2O (one ATL Jan) was tied already so no high score added (dmillz25 had same score marked as high score already).

... in the western contest, Cerakoter1984 had high score for PHX in April, regular forecaster RodneyS adds one there (marked #)

... same thing entirely for NRGJeff's high score PHX in January (Rodney S adds another, so the # denotes 2 added now)

... note the cut-off for this will be three months entered, meaning H20_Town_WX, mappy, Orangeburgwx retain sole possession of their high scores. 

... if any of the 2-forecast people mentioned above enter again, the regular forecaster add-ons will be withdrawn. 

 

 FORECASTER _______ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ east ____ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ cent ___ TOTAL __ Best scores

 

Roger Smith ________610 _642 _622 ___ 1874 ____ 502 _542 _456 ____1500 ___ 3374 __2*3*2 13*1 .3.1 __ MAY

wxallannj __________ 520 _556 _592 ____1668 ____ 450 _482 _561 ____1493 ___ 3161 ___ 001 001 .0.0 

DonSutherland.1 ___  532 _560 _532 ____1624 ____ 441 _567 _515 ____1523 ___ 3147 ___ 000 220 .0.1 

___Consensus ______ 503 _539 _558 ____1600 ____ 445 _513 _545 ____1503 ___ 3103 ___ 000 100 .0.0

jaxjagman _________ 510 _522 _520 ____1552 ____ 435 _521 _557 ____1513 ___ 3065 ___ 001 000 .0.1

BKViking ___________494 _570 _571 ____1635 ____ 402 _471 _550 ____1423 ___ 3058 ___ 001 000 .0.1

hudsonvalley21 _____ 483 _532 _514 ____1529 ____ 403 _497 _627 ___ 1527___ 3056 ___ 000 001 .0.1

RJay ______________490 _520 _557 ____1567 ____ 389 _530 _555 ____1474 ___ 3041 ___ 123 011 .3.2 _ APR, AUG

Tom ______________ 491 _529 _561 ____1581 ____ 425 _536 _487 ____1448 ___ 3029 ___ 001 000 .0.0 _ JUN

wxdude64 _________ 571 _522 _509 ____1602 ____ 439 _472 _507 ____1418 ___ 3020 ___34^0 002 .2.0

RodneyS ___________480 _542 _520 ____1542 ____ 473 _455 _528 ____1456 ___ 2998 ___ 210 201 .0.4 _ MAR, JUL, SEP

Stebo _____________ 447 _494 _504 ____1445 ____ 449 _506 _550 ____1505 ___ 2950 ___ 010 112 .0.1

Scotty Lightning (SD) _509 _527 _504 ___ 1540 ____ 417 _476 _509 ____1402 ___ 2942 ___2^11 103 .2^.1 _ JAN^

dmillz25 ___________ 447 _469 _475 ____1391 ____ 401 _494 _552 ____1447 ___ 2838 ___ 000 011 .0.0

___Normal _________450 _479 _447 ____1376 ____ 386 _453 _409 ____1248 ___ 2624 ___ 001 111 .0.0 __ JAN^

so_whats_happening*_327 _375_398 ____1100 ____ 360 _423 _400 ____1183 ___ 2283 ___ 000 111 .0.1 __ FEB

mappy (5/9) ________170 _185 _255 ____ 610 ____ 155 _230 _216 ____ 601 ___ 1211 ___ 001 000 .0.0

Orangeburgwx _(5/9)_179 _235 _269 ____ 683 ____ 154 _135 _233 ____ 522 ____1205 ___ 001 01*0 .0.0

afewUniverses bn (2)_114 _122 _144 ____ 380 ____ 139 _108 _180 ____ 427 ____ 807 ___ 110 011 .0.0

Mercurial (2/9) ______146 _150 _133 ____ 429 ____ 110 _132 _084 ____ 326 ____ 755 ___ 110 000 .1.0 __ JAN

H2O_Town_WX (3/9)_086 _105 _155 ____ 346 ____ 158 _052 _051 ____ 261 ____ 607 ___ 001 000 .0.0

H2O ___(2/9) ______ 094 _091 _071 ____ 256 ____ 056 _125 _072 ____ 253 ____ 509 ___ 000 010 .0.0

nrgJeff _ (2/9) ______116 _092 _064 ____ 272 ____ 004 _095 _037 ____ 136 ____ 408 ___

buckeyefan (1 mo J) _ 050 _066 _048 ____ 164 ____ 018 _092 _036 ____ 146 ____ 310 ___

Cerakoter1984 (1moA)_060_062 _062 ____ 184 ____ 020 _050 _036 ____ 106 ____ 290 ___ 

tnweathernut(1 mo J)_ 067_056 _036 ____ 159 ____ 029 _067 _023 ____ 119 ____ 278 ___

CPcantmeasuresnow _ 002 _000 _000 ____ 002 ____ 038 _008 _040 ____ 086 ____ 088 ___

_________ (1 mo F) _^^

note: * so_whats_happening missed July, September

all shown (2/9) missed March to September, Orangeburgwx (5/9) missed January, July, August, September

 ... mappy (5/9) missed June to September, and H2OTown_wx (3/9) missed April to September.

  

 Part Two: Western and All Nine contests

 ... best total scores in red for three locations, best scores in months shown after total score, high western totals

 for months in red ... all nine totals are shown with ranks, order of table is western scoring

 

 FORECASTER __________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL (west) __ best scores (mo) ____ All Nine (= rank)


Scotty Lightning (SD) ____ 473 _ 644 _ 588 ____ 1705 __________1 1 2 __ Apr, Aug __ 4647 (= 5 t)

BKViking _______________404 _ 616 _ 601 ____ 1621 __________ 0 1 1 ____________ 4679 (= 4) __ JUN

DonSutherland.1 ________ 460 _ 602 _ 519 _____1581 __________2^1 1 __ Jan ______ 4728 (= 2) _ JAN^

RodneyS_______________ 514 _ 610 _ 475 ____ 1599 __________ 1 3#1 __May ______ 4597 (= 8)  MAR,APR,JUL

hudsonvalley21 _________ 457 _ 571 _ 563 _____1591 __________ 0 2 1 __ Jul _______4647 (= 5 t)

__ Consensus __________ 430 _ 606 _ 524 _____1560 __________ 0 1 0 _____________4663 (= 5)

RJay __________________457 _ 538 _ 562 _____1557 __________ 3 1 1 __ Sep _______4598 (= 7) __ SEP

wxallannj ______________ 460 _ 626 _ 453 _____1539 __________1 1 0 __ Mar _______4700 (= 3)

Roger Smith ____________411 _ 566 _ 548 _____1525 __________ 2 0 2 __ Jan _______4899 (= 1) __ MAY

Tom __________________ 470 _ 564 _ 488 _____1522 __________ 1 0 0 _____________4551 (= 9) 

dmillz25 _______________ 375 _ 578 _ 533 _____1486 __________ 0 1 0 __ Jun _______ 4324 (=12)

__Normal ______________422 _ 512 _ 498 _____1432 __________ 2 1 1 _____________ 4056 (=13) __ FEB

wxdude64 _____________ 436 _ 524 _ 433 _____1393 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 4413 (=11)

jaxjagman _____________ 348 _ 528 _ 514 _____1390 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 4455 (=10)

so_whats_happening* ____313 _ 445 _ 379 _____1137 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 3420 (=14) __ FEB

Stebo _________________ 274 _ 501 _ 310 _____1085 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 4035 (=13)

Orangeburgwx (5/9)______251 _ 345 _ 289 _____ 885 __________ 1 3 1 __ Feb _______ 2090 (=15)

mappy (5/9) ____________124 _ 208 _ 179 _____ 511 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 1722 (=16)

H2OTown__WX (3/9) ____ 053 _ 180 _ 139 _____ 372 __________ 0 0 0 ______________ 979 (=20)

afewUniv bn (2 mo May,Jul)132 _ 172 _ 024 _____ 328 __________ 1 0 0 _____________ 1135 (=17)

Mercurial __ (2/9) _______ 080 _ 120 _ 078 _____ 278 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1033 (=18) __ JAN

nrgJeff ____ _(2/9) ______ 042 _ 084 _ 060 _____ 186 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 594 (=21)

H2O ____ (2/9) _________ 052 _ 082 _ 047 _____ 181 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 690 (=19)

cerakoter1984 (1 mo Apr)_ 000 _ 080 _ 078 _____ 158 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 448 (=22)

tnweathernut (1 mo Jan) __045 _ 058 _ 050 _____ 153 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 431 (=24)

buckeyewx __(1 mo Jan) __042 _ 034 _ 046 _____ 122 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 432 (=23)

CPcantmeasuresnow (1-F)_ 000 _ 030 _ 012 _____ 042 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 130 (=25)

 __________________________________________________________________________________________________

  

Regional Rumble ... ... (_ Total scores January - September _) 

 

REGION _________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ___ TOTAL __ behind leader

New York City _____ 1941 ____ 1778 ____ 1923 _____ 5642 ____ 0

Mid-Atlantic _______ 1942 ____ 1843 ____ 1721 _____ 5506 ____ 136

Central + Western __2028 ____ 1639 ____ 1571 _____ 5238 ____ 404

Philadelphia _______ 1889 ____ 1584 ____ 1759 _____ 5232 ____ 410

__ Consensus _____ 1600 ____ 1503 ____ 1560 _____ 4663 ____ 979

Tenn Valley _______ 1600 ____ 1513 ____ 1400 _____ 4513 ___ 1129

__ Normal ________ 1376 _____1248 ____ 1432 _____ 4056 ___ 1586

Great Lakes Oh Val _ 1445 ____ 1505 _____1085 _____ 4035 ___ 1607

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  • 2 weeks later...
Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Extreme forecast summary 

DCA _ At +4.4, a win for wxdude64 (+4.2) despite being penalized from 96 to 90.

NYC _ At +2.7, not an extreme forecast win, 9th highest forecast has high score.

BOS _ At +4.1, a win for RJay (+4.0) and a loss for wxdude64 (+4.8) with 6% late penalty.

ORD _ At +4.3, a win for RodneyS (+4.2). 

ATL _ At +7.4, a win for RJay (+2.5). 

IAH _ At +0.9, not an extreme forecast situation, outcome near consensus.

DEN _ At +4.7, a win for RJay (+2.5). 

PHX _ At +3.4, a win for hudsonvalley21 (+1.8). 

SEA _ At +1.0, not an extreme forecast win, result close to consensus.

_____________________________

updated annual standings

 

Roger Smith __________13###-0 (can fall to 10-0 see below)

RJay ________________10-2

RodneyS _____________ 8-3

__ Normal ____________ 6-5

wxdude64 ____________ 6-1

AfewUniversesbelown.. __4-0

Orangeburgwx ________ 4#-0* (can fall to 3-0 see below)

DonSutherland1 ________4-1

hudsonvalley21 ________ 3-0

wxallannj _____________3-0

Scotty Lightning (SD)____3-1

so_whats_happening ___ 2-0

Mercurial _____________ 1-0

NRG Jeff ______________1-0

Stebo ________________ 1-0

BKViking ______________1-0

H2OTown_wx _________ 1-1

cerakoter1984 _________ 1-0

Tom _________________ 0-1

* no decision (Mar for IAH)

 

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# wins excluding "a few Univ b n" will be withdrawn if a few Univ b n enters a third contest.

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