NewYorkweatherfan Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 21 minutes ago, Tatamy said: 06z GFS while a fantasy run would cause massive tidal flooding throughout the mid-Atlantic. That solution would be a disaster for Long Island and our area and a major disaster for the Cape. mid Atlantic would not get it as bad! Stop putting misinformation. Big snowstorm potential for upstate New York and Vermont if that solution verifies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 23 minutes ago, Tatamy said: 06z GFS while a fantasy run would cause massive tidal flooding throughout the mid-Atlantic. Maybe not a fantasy. Now that Florence most likely won't get scooped up in the central Atlantic, there's not much stopping her from reaching the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: That solution would be a disaster for Long Island and our area and a major disaster for the Cape. mid Atlantic would not get it as bad! Stop putting misinformation. Big snowstorm potential for upstate New York and Vermont if that solution verifies! Yep. The 540 line collapses and brings snow up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 Probably will see the model cycles waffle 2 more times. Who knows where it ends up. No question OTS is most likely. Overall to me the various ingredients out there don’t add up that’ll be greater than a Cat 1 or 2 when it hits the US if it made it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 Wow what a morning; without looking at models, I cannot tell what's hyperbole and what's analysis. From hundreds of thousands homeless, to feet of snow in Vermont! All in mid-September! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 34 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Probably will see the model cycles waffle 2 more times. Who knows where it ends up. No question OTS is most likely. Overall to me the various ingredients out there don’t add up that’ll be greater than a Cat 1 or 2 when it hits the US if it made it here. Depends on the two troughs. The first one can and very well may bring it out to sea completely without affecting any land. If that does not happen and it gets closer to the East Coast there is a chance the second trough picks it up. A lot of variables. I'd say about 20% chance of it hitting the east coast as of recent model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 1 hour ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: That solution would be a disaster for Long Island and our area and a major disaster for the Cape. mid Atlantic would not get it as bad! Stop putting misinformation. Big snowstorm potential for upstate New York and Vermont if that solution verifies! Long Island is part of the mid-Atlantic. Count how many tidal cycles take place while it lingers off shore - that is what leads to tidal flooding. Misinformation- I don’t think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Tatamy said: Long Island is part of the mid-Atlantic. Count how many tidal cycles take place while it lingers off shore - that is what leads to tidal flooding. Misinformation- I don’t think so. I agree verbatim it’s a big erosion mess. We are way way out though. As others have said and using the don Sutherland rule chances are high it’s out to sea. One thing that’s always missed is a fish storm is not a fish storm. All we have to do is get Florence to about 30/50 and it will send large long period swells. That’s almost certain now and days on end of big surf kills people every September. Life guards go off duty and the waters are warm. People think they can handle it and get stuck in a rip current. At Jones beach we are open with life guards for another 2 weeks. At most beaches life guards are finished for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Probably will see the model cycles waffle 2 more times. Who knows where it ends up. No question OTS is most likely. Overall to me the various ingredients out there don’t add up that’ll be greater than a Cat 1 or 2 when it hits the US if it made it here. Waters are hot at record levels so beware Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 3 hours ago, Tatamy said: 06z GFS while a fantasy run would cause massive tidal flooding throughout the mid-Atlantic. A 932 mb hurricane sitting just 100 miles off the VA coast would be... I can't even fathom that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Tatamy said: Long Island is part of the mid-Atlantic. Count how many tidal cycles take place while it lingers off shore - that is what leads to tidal flooding. Misinformation- I don’t think so. I don’t think Long Island is part of mid Atlantic. I consider philly and south part of mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 1 minute ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: I don’t think Long Island is part of mid Atlantic. I consider philly and south part of mid Atlantic Really? I've always seen NY, NJ, PA, DE and MD as the Mid-Atlantic with VA, WV and NC thrown in as well depending on the source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 Select Record-High Minimum Temperatures for 9/5 (preliminary): Atlantic City: 74° (tied record set in 1953) Harrisburg: 74° (old record: 73°, 1961, 1985,and 1999) New York City-LGA: 79° (tied record set in 1985) New York City-NYC: 77° (tied record set in 1898 and tied in 1907 and 1985) Newark: 78° (tied record set in 1961) Teterboro: 76° (old record: 72°, 1999) Washington, DC: 78° (tied record set in 2012) Yesterday was LGA’s 84th minimum temperature of 80° or above on record. 45 (54%) have occurred in the period beginning in 2000, including 24 (29%) during the period beginning in 2010. Under LGA’s historic climatology, such readings occurred 1.1 times per year, on average. Since 2000, they have occurred an average of 2.4 days per year and since 2010, they have occurred an average of 2.7 times per year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Really? I've always seen NY, NJ, PA, DE and MD as the Mid-Atlantic with VA, WV and NC thrown in as well depending on the source. No way! There’s different climate there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 1 hour ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: I don’t think Long Island is part of mid Atlantic. I consider philly and south part of mid Atlantic It is. New York, NJ and PA are the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 1 hour ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: No way! There’s different climate there! Not really, LGA, PHL, and BWI are all quite similar. We see greater differences locally, Central Park is wetter than JFK by 7 inches. LGA - 55.7° (mean) - 44.71” (precip) - 26.6” (snow) PHL - 55.8° (mean) - 41.50” (precip) - 21.9” (snow) BWI - 55.6° (mean) - 41.85” (precip) - 20.1” (snow) DCA - 58.2° (mean) - 39.71” (precip) - 15.4” (snow) I used to live in the DMV area, it’s not all that different compared to NYC (aside from March), in recent years the difference in the amount of snowfall between the two has been pretty extreme, however. That isn’t exactly “normal” though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 Park was at pace for another 90 degree day until a random drop from 85 to 82 occurred at 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 Record High Temperatures for 9/5 (through 1:00 PM): Erie: 92° (tied record set in 1881) Philadelphia: 92° (tied record set in 1961 and tied in 1973 and 1985) Additional locations with temperatures of 92°: Baltimore and Rochester. Also, LGA has reached 90°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 I don't know if mods want us to use a dedicated thread for Florence but I figured the weather is currently boring enough that I'll just post here. Was surprised no one commented on its unexpected intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I agree verbatim it’s a big erosion mess. We are way way out though. As others have said and using the don Sutherland rule chances are high it’s out to sea. One thing that’s always missed is a fish storm is not a fish storm. All we have to do is get Florence to about 30/50 and it will send large long period swells. That’s almost certain now and days on end of big surf kills people every September. Life guards go off duty and the waters are warm. People think they can handle it and get stuck in a rip current. At Jones beach we are open with life guards for another 2 weeks. At most beaches life guards are finished for the season. Strongly agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 According to the USGS the Mid-Atlantic Region is all of Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, along with parts of NJ, NY, and North Carolina that drain into the Delaware and Chesapeake Bays, and the Albemarie and Pamlico Sounds. The tri-state area verbatim is not part of the Mid-Atlantic as it do not drain into any of those. Thus, our area is the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 SE wind, but still pushing upwards at 88° currently. DP 76°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 24 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: I don't know if mods want us to use a dedicated thread for Florence but I figured the weather is currently boring enough that I'll just post here. Was surprised no one commented on its unexpected intensification. I created a catch all thread.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 I believe the 78 degree SST's South of Long Island is a new record for September. NY Harb Entrance 1750 78 78 20 S Fire Island 1750 76 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 Record High Temperatures for 9/5 (through 2:00 PM): Burlington: 90° (tied record set in 1973) Erie: 92° (tied record set in 1881) Georgetown: 93° (tied record set in 1961) Harrisburg: 93° (tied record set in 1954) Philadelphia: 94° (old record: 92°, 1961, 1973 and 1985) Scranton: 90° (tied record set in 1983) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 5, 2018 Author Share Posted September 5, 2018 Current temp 92/DP 77/RH 55% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 Record High Temperatures for 9/5 (through 3:00 PM): Albany: 91° (tied record set in 1973) Burlington: 92° (old record: 90°, 1973) Erie: 92° (tied record set in 1881) Georgetown: 93° (tied record set in 1961) Harrisburg: 93° (tied record set in 1954) Philadelphia: 95° (old record: 92°, 1961, 1973 and 1985) Scranton: 90° (tied record set in 1983) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIWeatherGuy29 Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 No rain here in 2 weeks. The mature Sycamore trees in the area are losing a lot of their leaves. It must be from a lack of rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 I’m sorry but In no way in hell is New York metro including Long Island part of mid Atlantic. It’s just not! We have a way different climate here. It’s a different region. Simple as that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 One more shot at 100 degree heat index readings tomorrow before a cooler easterly flow pattern arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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