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September 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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16 minutes ago, psv88 said:

1.6” here, brings me to 9” for September...

This is turning out to be the warmest September that was so wet for our area. Usually, a wet September is much cooler than we experienced this month. So a continuation of the summer pattern into the early fall. This record WAR pattern raised the bar on what is possible around here. Islip is currently the 2nd warmest September on record through the 27th.

 

 

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21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is turning out to be the warmest September that was so wet for our area. Usually, a wet September is much cooler than we experienced this month. So a continuation of the summer pattern into the early fall. This record WAR pattern raised the bar on what is possible around here. Islip is currently the 2nd warmest September on record through the 27th.

 

 

It sure doesn't seem like it has been warm. The lack of sun for 3 weeks straight will do that though... These warm minimums are killing me because they don't really tell the whole story, stats are what you make of them I guess.

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6 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

It sure doesn't seem like it has been warm. The lack of sun for 3 weeks straight will do that though... These warm minimums are killing me because they don't really tell the whole story, stats are what you make of them I guess.

Yeah...Mean hi temp here for the month is close to normal, but the min is close to 5° above normal. Never recall such a difference before.

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36 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

It sure doesn't seem like it has been warm. The lack of sun for 3 weeks straight will do that though... These warm minimums are killing me because they don't really tell the whole story, stats are what you make of them I guess.

The warm minimums are the big temperature story this month. Several stations across the wider region  are in the +8 to +12 range so far. I can't remember another month that the minimum departure was so much higher than the maximum. But anything is possible in this new 2010's climate regime.

1992337647_Screenshot2018-09-28at8_50_56AM.png.65270cc732c191f98508304b2d4f4937.png

1614267712_Screenshot2018-09-28at8_50.32AM08-53-00-799.png.4edf9e91fadc6a90e67af529e2cf57fe.png

 

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At noon, the temperature at Central Park stood at 57°. Nevertheless, it is now extremely likely that 2018 will become the 35th September on record to have a mean temperature of 70.0° or above. It is also extremely likely to become the 6th such September for the period beginning in 2010.

Through 9/27, New York City had a mean temperature of 71.6°. There were 16 prior cases when September had a mean temperature of 71.6° or above through the 27th. In all those prior cases, September had a mean temperature at or above 70.0°. Applying sensitivity analysis to the latest guidance for the remainder of the month, there was an implied 98% probability of such an outcome.

In addition, 2018 will conclude September without having had any low temperatures below 50° in the period beginning July 1. In the 1869-2017 period, 31% of years have seen no such low temperatures through September. The 9/28 0z EPS suggests that New York City may not have any minimum temperatures below 50° through October 10.

By October 5, only 15% of years had yet to have any minimum temperatures below 50°. Nearly one-third of those years occurred 2000 or later.

By October 10, only 7% of years had yet to have any minimum temperatures below 50°. 40% of those years occurred 2000 or later.

The first half of October still looks to be drier than normal with systems producing only small amounts of precipitation. Of course, QPF forecasts from the guidance can be thrown off by a single large system that skews amounts, so such forecasts should be taken with a lot of caution.

 

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