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September 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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34 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I guess they should have put the parkways somewhere other than over and next to rivers. 

 

I'm at ~1.8" so far for the day.

That’s where the cheap or undelveloped land was located for reason. 

Things look to be calming down now in the city. SWCT must have some serious flooding now with a large area 5”+

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2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s where the cheap or undelveloped land was located for reason. 

Things look to be calming down now in the city. SWCT must have some serious flooding now with a large area 5”+

Western Suffolk is in bad shape. 3-4” of rain in 2 hours. The road in front of my office is 2-3 feet of water with cars getting stuck. 

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Through 8 pm, New York City's total precipitation for 2018 was 46.83". That ranks 2018 as New York City's 52nd wettest year on record, just below 1948 when 46.87" fell.

In terms of implied probabilities:

50" or more:
Historic (1969-2017) data: 98%
1971-2017 data: 98%

60" or more:
Historic (1969-2017) data: 34%
1971-2017 data: 51%

Since 1869, New York City has had 32 years when 50" or more precipitation fell. 63% of those cases occurred after 1970.

Since 1869, New York City has had 7 years when 60" or more precipitation fell. All of those cases occurred after 1970.

Finally, the latest PNS for the rainfall totals follows:

000
NOUS41 KOKX 252341
PNSOKX
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-261124-

Public Information Statement
Spotter Reports
National Weather Service New York NY
740 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 12
hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation
is extended to highway departments, cooperative observers, Skywarn
spotters and media for these reports. This summary also is available
on our home page at weather.gov/nyc

********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     RAINFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...Fairfield County...
   Wilton                5.25   630 PM  9/25  Public
   New Canaan            3.49   500 PM  9/25  CoCoRaHS
   Bethel                2.00   300 PM  9/25  CoCoRaHS
   Darien                1.54   355 PM  9/25  Trained Spotter
   1 S Monroe            0.68   945 AM  9/25  CoCoRaHS

...New Haven County...
   East Wallingford      5.36   630 PM  9/25  Social Media
   New Haven             2.50   645 PM  9/25  CoCoRaHS

NEW JERSEY

...Bergen County...
   Tenafly               3.56   230 PM  9/25  CoCoRaHS
   North Arlington       2.11   115 PM  9/25  Mesonet
   WNW Palisades Park    0.57   900 AM  9/25  CoCoRaHS
   North Arlington       0.55   900 AM  9/25  CoCoRaHS
   Wood-ridge            0.51   823 AM  9/25  CWOP

...Essex County...
   Caldwell              3.24   545 PM  9/25  Co-Op Observer
   1 NW Nutley           0.52   821 AM  9/25  CWOP

...Hudson County...
   Bayonne               4.63   115 PM  9/25  Mesonet
   North Bergen          4.07   115 PM  9/25  Mesonet
   Secaucus              4.04   115 PM  9/25  Mesonet
   Harrison              1.81   115 PM  9/25  Co-Op Observer

...Passaic County...
   2 ENE Ringwood        3.04   545 PM  9/25  Co-Op Observer
   1 W Totowa            2.72   545 PM  9/25  Co-Op Observer
   1 E Ringwood          0.56   810 AM  9/25  RAWS

NEW YORK

...Kings County...
   2 ENE Coney Island    0.50   813 AM  9/25  CWOP

...Nassau County...
   Merrick               0.52   545 PM  9/25  Trained Spotter
   Wantagh               0.51   800 AM  9/25  CoCoRaHS
   1 SSE North Wantagh   0.50  1030 AM  9/25  CoCoRaHS

...Orange County...
   Monroe                1.22  1100 AM  9/25  Trained Spotter
   3 WSW Pine Bush       0.95   900 AM  9/25  CoCoRaHS
   Montgomery Airport    0.65   754 AM  9/25  ASOS
   West Point            0.59   755 AM  9/25  RAWS
   2 SW Greenwood Lake   0.59   800 AM  9/25  CoCoRaHS
   1 SSW Newburgh        0.58   823 AM  9/25  CWOP
   New Windsor           0.56   821 AM  9/25  CWOP

...Queens County...
   Bellerose             0.69   821 AM  9/25  CWOP

...Richmond County...
   Richmondtown          1.54   500 PM  9/25  CoCoRaHS

...Rockland County...
   Montebello            0.51   821 AM  9/25  CWOP

...Suffolk County...
   Dowling Sea Com       2.22   200 PM  9/25  Co-Op Observer
   West Islip            1.50   640 PM  9/25  Trained Spotter
   Copiague              0.53  1005 AM  9/25  CoCoRaHS

...Westchester County...
   Armonk                2.70   445 PM  9/25  Trained Spotter

&&
 

 

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45 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s where the cheap or undelveloped land was located for reason. 

Things look to be calming down now in the city. SWCT must have some serious flooding now with a large area 5”+

OKX radar estimates 6-8 inches here...it was complete mayhem for a few hours earlier...everything flooded, basements, roads everything-never seen anything like it.

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37 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through 8 pm, New York City's total precipitation for 2018 was 46.83". That ranks 2018 as New York City's 52nd wettest year on record, just below 1948 when 46.87" fell.

In terms of implied probabilities:

50" or more:
Historic (1969-2017) data: 98%
1971-2017 data: 98%

60" or more:
Historic (1969-2017) data: 34%
1971-2017 data: 51%

Since 1869, New York City has had 32 years when 50" or more precipitation fell. 63% of those cases occurred after 1970.

Since 1869, New York City has had 7 years when 60" or more precipitation fell. All of those cases occurred after 1970.

Finally, the latest PNS for the rainfall totals follows:

000
NOUS41 KOKX 252341
PNSOKX
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-261124-

Public Information Statement
Spotter Reports
National Weather Service New York NY
740 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 12
hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation
is extended to highway departments, cooperative observers, Skywarn
spotters and media for these reports. This summary also is available
on our home page at weather.gov/nyc

********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     RAINFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...Fairfield County...
   Wilton                5.25   630 PM  9/25  Public
   New Canaan            3.49   500 PM  9/25  CoCoRaHS
   Bethel                2.00   300 PM  9/25  CoCoRaHS
   Darien                1.54   355 PM  9/25  Trained Spotter
   1 S Monroe            0.68   945 AM  9/25  CoCoRaHS

...New Haven County...
   East Wallingford      5.36   630 PM  9/25  Social Media
   New Haven             2.50   645 PM  9/25  CoCoRaHS

NEW JERSEY

...Bergen County...
   Tenafly               3.56   230 PM  9/25  CoCoRaHS
   North Arlington       2.11   115 PM  9/25  Mesonet
   WNW Palisades Park    0.57   900 AM  9/25  CoCoRaHS
   North Arlington       0.55   900 AM  9/25  CoCoRaHS
   Wood-ridge            0.51   823 AM  9/25  CWOP

...Essex County...
   Caldwell              3.24   545 PM  9/25  Co-Op Observer
   1 NW Nutley           0.52   821 AM  9/25  CWOP

...Hudson County...
   Bayonne               4.63   115 PM  9/25  Mesonet
   North Bergen          4.07   115 PM  9/25  Mesonet
   Secaucus              4.04   115 PM  9/25  Mesonet
   Harrison              1.81   115 PM  9/25  Co-Op Observer

...Passaic County...
   2 ENE Ringwood        3.04   545 PM  9/25  Co-Op Observer
   1 W Totowa            2.72   545 PM  9/25  Co-Op Observer
   1 E Ringwood          0.56   810 AM  9/25  RAWS

NEW YORK

...Kings County...
   2 ENE Coney Island    0.50   813 AM  9/25  CWOP

...Nassau County...
   Merrick               0.52   545 PM  9/25  Trained Spotter
   Wantagh               0.51   800 AM  9/25  CoCoRaHS
   1 SSE North Wantagh   0.50  1030 AM  9/25  CoCoRaHS

...Orange County...
   Monroe                1.22  1100 AM  9/25  Trained Spotter
   3 WSW Pine Bush       0.95   900 AM  9/25  CoCoRaHS
   Montgomery Airport    0.65   754 AM  9/25  ASOS
   West Point            0.59   755 AM  9/25  RAWS
   2 SW Greenwood Lake   0.59   800 AM  9/25  CoCoRaHS
   1 SSW Newburgh        0.58   823 AM  9/25  CWOP
   New Windsor           0.56   821 AM  9/25  CWOP

...Queens County...
   Bellerose             0.69   821 AM  9/25  CWOP

...Richmond County...
   Richmondtown          1.54   500 PM  9/25  CoCoRaHS

...Rockland County...
   Montebello            0.51   821 AM  9/25  CWOP

...Suffolk County...
   Dowling Sea Com       2.22   200 PM  9/25  Co-Op Observer
   West Islip            1.50   640 PM  9/25  Trained Spotter
   Copiague              0.53  1005 AM  9/25  CoCoRaHS

...Westchester County...
   Armonk                2.70   445 PM  9/25  Trained Spotter

&&
 

 

Wantagh meso up to 2.16” since this was reported. 

Great info, baring a very dry end to the year it looks like we crack the top 10.

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Starting the day with the temps in the low 70's. Be interesting to see if we can hold on at or above 70 before midnight. This would be the 75th day at LGA this year with a minimum at or above 70 degrees. LGA is currently in 2nd place on the highest number of 70 degree or warmer minimums. Notice how many top years have occurred in the 2010's.

Most 70 degree or warmer minimums at LGA:

#1....77 days....2005

#2....74 days....2018

#3...73 days.....2016

#4...71 days....2012

#5...69 days....2015....2010

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Starting the day with the temps in the low 70's. Be interesting to see if we can hold on at or above 70 before midnight. This would be the 75th day at LGA this year with a minimum at or above 70 degrees. LGA is currently in 2nd place on the highest number of 70 degree or warmer minimums. Notice how many top years have occurred in the 2010's.

Most 70 degree or warmer minimums at LGA:

#1....77 days....2005

#2....74 days....2018

#3...73 days.....2016

#4...71 days....2012

#5...69 days....2015....2010

 

Such is the consequence of a situation where minimum temperatures have been rising by almost 1°F per decade for an extended period of time.

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51 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Such is the consequence of a situation where minimum temperatures have been rising by almost 1°F per decade for an extended period of time.

Most stations across the region are at or near the highest number of 70 degree minimums on record.

1818825832_Screenshot2018-09-26at9_49_33AM.png.6b0a62c70d9ed6fc7fae1fd3024b2cbc.png

 

 

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8 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Looks like the SPC shaved back the slight risk area a bit.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

day1otlk_1200.gif

Makes sense. We are in the marine layer out here currently. If we can get an organized squall line I could see it making a decent way out on to the island. But the beat chance will definitely be from the city west. 

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2 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Sun is out now. The wind is up a bit so there's plenty of air movement mixing things up. The ground is steaming from all the rain yesterday. Lets heat this place up and add some fuel for the storms later.

Visible shot shows alot of breaks in the clouds, guessing alot of this burns off in the next few hours (still socked in here)

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