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September 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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10 hours ago, uncle W said:

September decade averages for NYC...ave. temp...ave rainfall...ave max...ave min...minimums are on the rise...the 2010's have the high maximums also...

During the 2010's, summer extended into September while fall lingered into December. 2015 was the most extreme example of this so far. That September was warmer than the average June with December like a mild November. 

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

It soon might be time to watch Florence . Gfs is still insisting on a fish storm.

EPS control is similar to GGEM with landfall into NC then up to Del and then out to sea Sep 12 - 13/14.  ECM was east of NC/VA border at H240

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some September heat waves...three days or more 90+...

year.....dates.......max

2015...01-03.......93

2015...07-09.......97

2010...8/29-9/2...96

1985...04-06.......94

1983...05-07.......94

1980...8/31-9/2...96

1973...8/28-9/4...98

1961...8/31-9/2...95

1961...10-12.......94

1953...8/26-9/2...102

1952...11-13.......94

1931...09-11.......99

1929...01-04.......99

1915...14-16.......92

1914...21-23.......95

1895...20-24.......97

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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

some September heat waves...three days or more 90+...

year.....dates.......max

2015...01-03.......93

2015...07-09.......97

2010...8/29-9/2...96

1985...04-06.......94

1983...05-07.......94

1980...8/31-9/2...96

1973...8/28-9/4...98

1961...8/31-9/2...95

1961...10-12.......94

1953...8/26-9/2...102

1952...11-13.......94

1931...09-11.......99

1929...01-04.......99

1915...14-16.......92

1914...21-23.......95

1895...20-24.......97

My station has been as high as 99° in Sept... it happened twice but a long time ago, in 1980 and 1983.

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Still struggling to reach 80 here.   Row of semi-innocent looking cumulus lining up to the west of me.    They mean no harm so far.

Also, latest GFS took giant leap in the wrong direction with Florence.     OTS and dissipating along 40N.    Would need to do a 'Sandy' now.    Have to settle for a homegrown coastal rainstorm on the 8th.-10th.?

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This is the 4th consecutive September, since 2014, when it has been 15F above average in NYC metro area. I wonder if there is anyone out there who can explain without too many “weather models/satellite references,” as to why this is happening? I’m a climate change skeptic of different variety — I do believe it’s happening for the worse in terms of HEATWAVES & DROUGHTS in all regions above TROPIC OF CANCER, but all this warming is not necessarily man made, but cyclical or vicious solar activity. What do you think? 

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56 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Still struggling to reach 80 here.   Row of semi-innocent looking cumulus lining up to the west of me.    They mean no harm so far.

Also, latest GFS took giant leap in the wrong direction with Florence.     OTS and dissipating along 40N.    Would need to do a 'Sandy' now.    Have to settle for a homegrown coastal rainstorm on the 8th.-10th.?

Gfs is way east and stronger than the other models lol

Toss right now but we are still far out .

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5 minutes ago, beckd said:

This is the 4th consecutive September, since 2014, when it has been 15F above average in NYC metro area. I wonder if there is anyone out there who can explain without too many “weather models/satellite references,” as to why this is happening? I’m a climate change skeptic of different variety — I do believe it’s happening for the worse in terms of HEATWAVES & DROUGHTS in all regions above TROPIC OF CANCER, but all this warming is not necessarily man made, but cyclical or vicious solar activity. What do you think? 

A lot of it does have to do with man-made GW. So far the oceans have been able to absorb much of the increased warming, etc. Also, the oceans have been taking in quite a bit of CO2. All of which plays some semblance to the increased warming. Sure it is not all global warming, some of it has to do with the expanding urban footprint, etc. Also, some is cyclical. How much? That is debatable. After spending my career thus far earning a PhD and studying blacklegged ticks and Lyme Disease, I can tell you the tick isn’t moving north and up mountains because of human migration, but rather the climates are opening up to them. Regarding the whole GW debate, one thing that always boggles my mind is how people think we have a minimal impact on the planet. There are 7.6 billion humans on the planet, all of whole use heat to cook, heat homes, energy for AC, energy for transportation etc. even the worlds poorest burn to cook. That has to have some effect. But in the flip side the development of fossil fuels would not have allowed us to reach 7.6 billion people. However, now it is up to us to figure out how we can be good stewards to our home planet. Science has been a miracle. 

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Through today (July 1-September 3), New York City (NYC) has had no minimum temperatures below 60°. Only 18 prior years during the 1869-2017 period had no such readings through September 3.

Even though New York City has had a mature urban footprint since the 1950s, 9 of those cases occurred 1990 or later, 6 from 2000 or later, and 5 from 2010 or later.

In contrast, 1888 and 1940 had 16 days through September 3 with minimum temperatures below 60°.

Finally, La Guardia Airport is poised to tie today's daily record high minimum temperature of 77°. That temperature was last reached on September 3 in 2010.

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49 minutes ago, beckd said:

This is the 4th consecutive September, since 2014, when it has been 15F above average in NYC metro area. I wonder if there is anyone out there who can explain without too many “weather models/satellite references,” as to why this is happening? I’m a climate change skeptic of different variety — I do believe it’s happening for the worse in terms of HEATWAVES & DROUGHTS in all regions above TROPIC OF CANCER, but all this warming is not necessarily man made, but cyclical or vicious solar activity. What do you think? 

I’m addition to GW, I would also think we simply haven’t had a favorable pattern for below average temperatures for early fall in quite some time.

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