NJwx85 Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 Another big soaker incoming for tonight and tomorrow, especially N&W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 9 hours ago, Rtd208 said: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html Day 3 Slight from SPC...impressive. Lapse rates suck though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 1 minute ago, Ace said: Day 3 Slight from SPC...impressive. Lapse rates suck though. There's always something missing in this region when it comes to big severe outbreaks, usually either shear or lapse rates. Most of the best storms I can remember, whether here or in Allentown, have come on days which weren't supposed to have significant outbreaks. The 3km NAM has some discrete cells popping front of the squall line Wednesday evening, but under its current timing the front would come through here during the early morning hours of Thursday, which could limit the severe potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 NYC actually came close to the highest barometric pressure on record for September.The record is 30.58 and NYC topped out at 30.50 . Central Park PTSUNNY 64 55 72 VRB6G18 30.50S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 8 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: There's always something missing in this region when it comes to big severe outbreaks, usually either shear or lapse rates. Most of the best storms I can remember, whether here or in Allentown, have come on days which weren't supposed to have significant outbreaks. The 3km NAM has some discrete cells popping front of the squall line Wednesday evening, but under its current timing the front would come through here during the early morning hours of Thursday, which could limit the severe potential. We do the best in early morning warm frontal passages. Decent localized instability combined with a local enhancement of shear. We did have a nice afternoon squall line earlier this year when we also had an EML to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 18z NAM is a crush job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 3K NAM has the best rains north of LI and the City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: 3K NAM has the best rains north of LI and the City The models have been showing the heaviest totals over interior NE PA, NNJ and SE NY all week. I doubt the 18z NAM is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The models have been showing the heaviest totals over interior NE PA, NNJ and SE NY all week. I doubt the 18z NAM is correct. yeah upton favors those areas due to lift over higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 Rgem bullseyes most of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 Been a fair while since it was this windy (and it's not even that windy). I think that SW flow event in early August with the devastating E PA rains was the last time it was this windy. I mean mostly it's been a slog of still, humid air. The change of pace is refreshing but abrupt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 7 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said: Been a fair while since it was this windy (and it's not even that windy). I think that SW flow event in early August with the devastating E PA rains was the last time it was this windy. I mean mostly it's been a slog of still, humid air. The change of pace is refreshing but abrupt. Out here on the island it was during the storm earlier this month. I will agree it was pretty windy in the city earlier today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 25, 2018 Author Share Posted September 25, 2018 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Reminder of Sept. averaging 69degs., or +6degs. Month to date is +2.8[71.9]. Should end month at about +3.4[71.3]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Heavy rain here since 4AM. Got soaked just running to my car without an umbrella. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 I'm hoping that we can finally string together a dry week with much more sun after today. The constant cloudiness is really starting to weigh on people I have noticed. No wonder so many people are vitamin D deficient here haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 Through 8:10 am, New York City’s Central Park had picked up 0.27” rain. That brings 2018’s total precipitation to 45.21”, which ranks as New York City’s 64th highest figure on record. Implied probabilities of annual precipitation: 50” or above: Historic data: 96% 1971-2017 data: 96% 60” or above: Historic data: 20% 1971-2017 data: 39% Lowest 9/26-12/31 precipitation: 4.62”, 2001 Highest 9/26-12/31 precipitation: 27.72”, 1983 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 25, 2018 Author Share Posted September 25, 2018 Getting some moderate to heavy rain falling here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 7 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: I'm hoping that we can finally string together a dry week with much more sun after today. The constant cloudiness is really starting to weigh on people I have noticed. No wonder so many people are vitamin D deficient here haha! Are you new to this area? Weather has been pretty typical so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Through 8:10 am, New York City’s Central Park had picked up 0.27” rain. That brings 2018’s total precipitation to 45.21”, which ranks as New York City’s 64th highest figure on record. Implied probabilities of annual precipitation: 50” or above: Historic data: 96% 1971-2017 data: 96% 60” or above: Historic data: 20% 1971-2017 data: 39% Lowest 9/26-12/31 precipitation: 4.62”, 2001 Highest 9/26-12/31 precipitation: 27.72”, 1983 Don, I just ran the numbers and NYC set an impressive long term record for measurable precipitation. Today was the 117th day this year with measurable precipitation at NYC through 9-25. The record WAR pattern and tropical moisture pushed NYC over the top. Most days with measurable precipitation in NYC 1-1 through 9-25 #1...117 days....2018 #2...113 days....1950 #3...110 days....1916 #4...109 days....2003...1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 25, 2018 Author Share Posted September 25, 2018 Closest reporting station up to 0.52" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 52 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Heavy rain here since 4AM. Got soaked just running to my car without an umbrella. same here...about .60 so far...back edge to the south, will see if that moves through with the warm front or it redevelops....54 degrees here, mid 70's in south Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 47 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Are you new to this area? Weather has been pretty typical so far this year. I am quite sure it’s been far cloudier than average this month. Some stat I saw showing a cloudy day 70% of time when observed at noon for the month thus far. Normal was around 25% I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 1 minute ago, ILoveWinter said: I am quite sure it’s been far cloudier than average this month. Some stat I saw showing a cloudy day 70% of time when observed at noon for the month thus far. Normal was around 25% I believe. September can often be a dry clear month especially if there is no tropical activity. This year we have had alot of onshore flow days bringing alot of cloud cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 42 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Closest reporting station up to 0.52" of rain so far today. 0.74 here so far since midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 First flakes next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 57 minutes ago, bluewave said: Don, I just ran the numbers and NYC set an impressive long term record for measurable precipitation. Today was the 117th day this year with measurable precipitation at NYC through 9-25. The record WAR pattern and tropical moisture pushed NYC over the top. Most days with measurable precipitation in NYC 1-1 through 9-25 #1...117 days....2018 #2...113 days....1950 #3...110 days....1916 #4...109 days....2003...1996 Yeah I was checking my totals last night also...122 days so far with measurable precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: Are you new to this area? Weather has been pretty typical so far this year. It has been much cloudier than normal especially near the coast due to non-stop onshore flow. It has felt like a warmer version of Seattle this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 32 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: I am quite sure it’s been far cloudier than average this month. Some stat I saw showing a cloudy day 70% of time when observed at noon for the month thus far. Normal was around 25% I believe. So far, we are running more than twice the normal amount of cloudiness for September. It goes along with the high dew points and record minimum temperature warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 13 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: First flakes next week? Basically follows the 2,000’ contour. It would be early but not unheard of in the Adirondacks, greens and whites. .50” so far in wantagh. Looks like from here out most of the precip is north and west which follows some of the modeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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