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September 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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51 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

RGEM had widespread 2-3 inches...most areas will get much less than that...a blend of the two might be best

Repeat after me:  QPF is the least accurate element of numerical modeling.  QPF is the least accurate element of numerical modeling . . .

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8 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Dang! Was hoping the cane would throw a wrench into the pattern. 

Nope, the tropics blew its load all in one shot and looks to be quiet through at least the end of September. Whatever is left of the circulation from Florence dissipates on the Euro somewhere near Bermuda in about 7 days. On the GFS, it hangs around as a weak low for about the next 300hrs until finally dissipating near Florida. I think the ship has sailed in terms of regeneration, but I supposed stranger things have happened. 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Picked up .70 here in SW Suffolk with the heavy downpours so far.

It was an astonishing 77/77/100% around noon, I wonder if the dew point has ever been this high this late in the year before?

https://classic.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-jfk/KJFK/date/2018-9-18

Now it feels better, it's gotten less humid and the temps have dropped from a high of 80 to the low 70s  since the winds switched to the north but it's still raining pretty hard.

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