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September 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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On 9/15/2018 at 4:26 PM, tdp146 said:

I have a bunch of pictures of thre beach at Tobay and gilgo a couple weeks after sandy. It was wild.

acually even today we walked towards gilgo and the West gilgo area took a fairly big hit just from Florence. Almost in the same spot that almost washed over during the march 2010 nor easter.

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Most of our stations are in the top 10 warmest Septembers through 9/16. Same recent pattern where the strongest warmth is north and east of NYC.

Top 10 warmest September rankings through 9/16:

EWR.....#11

LGA.......#5

HPN......#8

JFK.......#8

BDR.....#5

ISP......#2

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55 minutes ago, doncat said:

Some wetter....rgem_apcpn_neus_44.thumb.png.c68dfa58b6e422a1dd4263ae36524ed5.png

 Based on the current radar it looks like the heaviest rain amounts could be on the SE Side with convection. The rain shield with the remnant  low looks to be more strataform type rains. So despite the fact that areas to our north may have more widespread moderate totals we could see isolated higher amounts here.

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forky and njwx are on the money.  the low level jet currently producing convective showers in the dc area and points south is forecast to be overhead from ~midnight-9am. lwx radar is showing widespread 40kt winds aloft, with embedded 50kt maxima in convection. the hrrr, rap and other hi-res models suggest several impulses embedded in the flow will enhance showers periodically during that period. with pwats of 2-2.3", we will all see plenty of rain. as long as it clears out some behind the morning round, at least scattered thunderstorms should develop along the front tomorrow afternoon/eve.

that qpf max forecast by most guidance upstate towards boston is associated with frontogenesis and will likely be narrower than most models show. 

there are signs of a second sfc low developing near jersey or the delmarva later tomorrow, so i think there could be a second precip max just sw-thru-e of the city. 

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35 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Surprised there's no tornado watch, at least over the Delmarva.  There's a warned storm in Virginia.  I guess they're expecting whatever potential action there may be to be very weak and sporadic.

The greatest shear values (25-30kts) are mostly West of DC which is displaced from the higher instability closer to the coast and further Southeast over Eastern VA.

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While we wait for the potential tropical downpours from what's left of Florence, it should be noted that Baltimore has received 0.09" rain today bringing its year-to-date precipitation to 49.05". That ranks 2018 as that city's 29th wettest year on record, just ahead of 1924 when annual precipitation was 49.04". There remains a chance that 2018 could become Baltimore's wettest year on record.

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42 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The greatest shear values (25-30kts) are mostly West of DC which is displaced from the higher instability closer to the coast and further Southeast over Eastern VA.

 

1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Surprised there's no tornado watch, at least over the Delmarva.  There's a warned storm in Virginia.  I guess they're expecting whatever potential action there may be to be very weak and sporadic.

Well they issued a tornado watch with several active warnings

Map of Forecast Area

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Tornado confirmed on the cell near Richmond

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
347 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

VAC041-087-760-172015-
/O.CON.KAKQ.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-180917T2015Z/
City of Richmond VA-Chesterfield VA-Henrico VA-
347 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL CHESTERFIELD AND WEST CENTRAL HENRICO COUNTIES AND THE CITY
OF RICHMOND...

At 346 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near SR 288 and Hull
Street road, moving north at 20 mph. A second potential tornado is
being observed on radar near Pochantas State Park.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This tornado will be near...
  Bensley around 355 PM EDT.
  Bon Air, University Of Richmond and Downtown Richmond around 405
  PM EDT.
  Virginia Commonwealth University around 410 PM EDT.
  Richmond and Tuckahoe around 415 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Roslyn
Hills and Midlothian.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.
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