bluewave Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Warm minimums really driving the temperature departures this month. Pretty lopsided results so far with all the clouds and high humidity. LGA AVG....+3.1 MIN....+4.8 MAX....+1.4 ISP AVG....+3.8 MIN....+5.8 MAX....+1.9 EWR AVG....+2.9 MIN....+4.8 MAX....+0.9 ALB AVG....+4.6 MIN....+6.9 MAX....+2.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 14 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Remennants of Florence comes up here next week on the Euro. Few inches of rain. Just what we need-more rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 36 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Vomits in mouth. Haven't mowed the lawn in 10 days because of the rain, getting long now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, psv88 said: Vomits in mouth. Haven't mowed the lawn in 10 days because of the rain, getting long now. Yeah measurable rain now 8 straight days here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 13, 2018 Author Share Posted September 13, 2018 38 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Remennants of Florence comes up here next week on the Euro. Few inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 13, 2018 Author Share Posted September 13, 2018 If the Euro is correct on bringing the remnants of Florence up this way it looks like it would be Tuesday/Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 13, 2018 Author Share Posted September 13, 2018 Current temp 70/DP 69/RH 92% Picked up 0.21" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 The first 6 days of September saw the temperature average 80.2° in Central Park, the 8th warmest start on record. Back then, it was noted that 57% of the prior cases saw September finish with a monthly average temperature of 70.0° or above. The statistical probability of such an outcome based on a sensitivity analysis for 6 days of data, MEX MOS for the following 10 days, and EPS for the subsequent five days was also 57%. Since then, the monthly average has declined on account of cooler readings. Through September 12, the monthly average had decreased to 73.2°. That ranks 36th warmest for the 1869-present period. During the 1869-2017 period, there were 42 cases in which the first 12 days of September had a mean temperature of 73.0° or above. 60% of those cases wound up having a monthly mean temperature of 70.0° or above. The statistical probability was 56% for those cases. The lowest monthly mean temperature among those cases was 66.5° in 1966. The highest was 74.5° in 2015. Both the mean and median figures for those 42 cases were 70.3°. Re-running the sensitivity analysis for the 12 days of data and same approach to the guidance (MEX MOS and EPS), the implied statistical probability of September’s finishing with a mean temperature of 70.0° or above has increased to 59%. The likely range for the monthly mean temperature was 69.2° - 72.6°. So, at least at this point in time, September 2018 appears to have remained on course for yet another exceptionally warm monthly average temperature. Finally, with this morning’s 0.13” rain, New York City’s annual precipitation has risen to 43.70”, which ranks 81st. It is very likely that New York City will receive 50” or more precipitation in 2018 and somewhat likely that it could approach or reach 60”. Using the historical 1869-2017 period, the associated probabilities are: 50” or more: 94% 60” or more: 22% Using the 1971-2017 period, which is a wetter regime, the associated probabilities are: 50” or more: 96% 60” or more: 39% In terms of significant rainfall in the medium-term, the 9/13/2018 0z ECMWF took the remnants of Florence on a course that would bring New York City more than an inch of rain (the ECMWF forecasts >2” for a large part of the area). But that’s still 4-6 days away, so such an outcome remains subject to considerable uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: More like Denmark in the spring. If you looked at the 500 MB map the last 8 days youd think we would have been +8 - 10. ONce we clear in 2023 we should warmup nicely. In all seriousness - ECM is back to predominant higher heights in the Sep 20 - 24 period perhaps the next window for a little late season heat. This pattern is probably on lock until the wave lengths change. It's crazy how it just stays locked in for months. A lot more cloudy days in store though with plenty of onshore flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 57 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Just what we need-more rain... It's ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Partly sunny here now as the low clouds burn off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Got slammed last night around 1 am by a cell that just parked itself over the area. Picked up close to 2" combined with the activity earlier in the evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1.09" in the gauge from last night's rain in springfield. was surprised to see that much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 17 hours ago, Snow88 said: Are we in Seattle or NY? Seattle? More like Miami lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Seattle? More like Miami lol Seattle is 63/49 now and only .33 for the month so yeah I wish It was like that here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 When we think we've had a lot of rain I can't help but think of the guy in NC that posted in their Florence thread last night that he is at 103" so far for the year. I couldn't believe it when i saw it but he confirmed it. Can you imagine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 14, 2018 Author Share Posted September 14, 2018 Current temp 71/DP 67/RH 87% Picked up 0.21" of rain for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 74degs., or 7degs. AN. Month to date is +2.2[73.2]. Should be +4.1[73.5], by the 22nd. Florence's eye partially on land near 34.3N 77.3W, with hurricane force winds in northeast quadrant only, right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Warm minimums continue to drive the departures with all the clouds and high humidity. LGA 9/13...+4....MAX....0...MIN...+7 .......9/12...+5....MAX....0...MIN...+9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Seattle? More like Miami lolThere may be more rainy/drizzly days in Seattle, but NYC averages more rainfall total per year.Seattle....37”NYC........45”Miami.....62”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Nine straight days with measurable rain...0.03" this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Radar is deceiving. Almost no returns showing up but its raining moderately at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Percentage of cloud cover for the first half of September ahead of February. Hopefully, the second half brings more sun and we fall behind the full month of February percentage. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=45&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=LGA&hour=12&year=2018&month=9&dpi=100&_fmt=png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Radar is deceiving. Almost no returns showing up but its raining moderately at the moment Here it's the mist, it's so thick it might as well be raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 2 hours ago, Superstorm said: There may be more rainy/drizzly days in Seattle, but NYC averages more rainfall total per year. Seattle....37” NYC........45” Miami.....62” . Every time I try to explain this to people they tell me I'm wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Been misting here all morning, quite heavy at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted September 15, 2018 Share Posted September 15, 2018 11 hours ago, gravitylover said: Every time I try to explain this to people they tell me I'm wrong Those people are probably lonly ooking at October through March when the city averages about 75% of its average yearly total. We sought of get imprinted with those monster fall and winter Pacific lows that crash into the nortwest coast. Summer there seems very dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted September 15, 2018 Share Posted September 15, 2018 4 hours ago, rclab said: Those people are probably lonly ooking at October through March when the city averages about 75% of its average yearly total. We sought of get imprinted with those monster fall and winter Pacific lows that crash into the nortwest coast. Summer there seems very dry. IME it is very dry there for a good part of the year, I've only been there in June and July but I've never seen more than a few clouds in the sky and temps over 80*. As with most of the Pacific coast the days start out grey but it's low level fog that burns off by ~10am, that's why it's so lush from about Santa Barbara north into Canada and the Redwoods are able to grow to such staggering heights even though it's so dry for so many months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 15, 2018 Author Share Posted September 15, 2018 Looks like both the Mt.Holly & Upton NWS offices are onboard with the potential for heavy rain/storms Monday night into Tuesday night. Both offices mentioned the possibility of Flood Watches eventually being needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 15, 2018 Share Posted September 15, 2018 Very happy to see the sunniest start to the day in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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