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September 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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48 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

tropical downpour here-radar shows almost nothing.

Areas of Northern Suffolk received over 1.5" in the past hour. 

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service New York NY
1223 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2018

NYC103-121800-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FA.Y.0157.180912T1623Z-180912T1800Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Suffolk NY-
1223 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2018

The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
  West central Suffolk County in southeastern New York...

* Until 200 PM EDT.

* At 1222 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to slow
  moving heavy showers and thunderstorms. This will cause minor
  flooding in the advisory area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Stony Brook, Port Jefferson, Wading River, Northport, Rocky Point,
  Mount Sinai, Centerport, East Northport, Kings Park, Setauket,
  Greenlawn, Miller Place, Elwood, Fort Salonga and Port Jefferson
  Station.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4091 7342 4091 7341 4093 7341 4092 7342
      4094 7344 4094 7341 4096 7339 4093 7335
      4094 7329 4091 7322 4093 7316 4097 7317
      4098 7312 4097 7292 4098 7273 4096 7274
      4088 7322 4082 7337

$$

NV
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13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, did JFK reach their 40th 75+ dew point day today?

 

Dont know if it'll be enough to get us to 90+ heat index numbers again this year though

Another day with Miami dew points at JFK. It feels really warm for a cloudy day especially during the brief breaks of sun.

Kennedy Intl   CLOUDY    77  76  96 VRB5      30.24S
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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another day with Miami dew points at JFK. It feels really warm for a cloudy day especially during the brief breaks of sun.


Kennedy Intl   CLOUDY    77  76  96 VRB5      30.24S

76/75/80 and steamy. Those showers just added to the jungle feel. Everything is lush again after a week of rain 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Another day with Miami dew points at JFK. It feels really warm for a cloudy day especially during the brief breaks of sun.


Kennedy Intl   CLOUDY    77  76  96 VRB5      30.24S

Finally we did it today!  Number 40!

https://classic.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-jfk/KJFK/date/2018-9-12

 

I dont know how to figure out heat index, Chris, did we get more hours of 90+ heat index?

 

it's 79 degrees right now with a 76 dew point at JFK.

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

76/75/80 and steamy. Those showers just added to the jungle feel. Everything is lush again after a week of rain 

everything is bigger this summer, the plants look bigger, the leaves look more lush, even the bugs look bigger and more common, this Texas/Florida combo pattern is not one that I like.

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2 hours ago, psv88 said:

76/75/80 and steamy. Those showers just added to the jungle feel. Everything is lush again after a week of rain 

 

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Finally we did it today!  Number 40!

https://classic.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-jfk/KJFK/date/2018-9-12

 

I dont know how to figure out heat index, Chris, did we get more hours of 90+ heat index?

 

it's 79 degrees right now with a 76 dew point at JFK.

Closest 90+ heat index was in SNJ with more sun today.

Atlantic City  PTSUNNY   83  77  82 E9        30.19  HX  92

 

 

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20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

Closest 90+ heat index was in SNJ with more sun today.


Atlantic City  PTSUNNY   83  77  82 E9        30.19  HX  92

 

 

I think the JFK high today was 80 with a dew point of 76.  Think this is the last 75+ dew point of the year or maybe tomorrow?  I see next week it's going to be humid also, but don't know if it will be this humid.

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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0828
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
322 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

Areas affected...SE NY...Long Island...Southern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121921Z - 130000Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with rainfall rates up to
2"/hr will continue along a stationary front this afternoon. Flash
flooding is possible.

Discussion...GOES-16 visible imagery shows a clear demarcation of
clear sky conditions along and south of a surface boundary draped
along the coast from near Philadelphia, PA northeast towards
Chatham, MA. Within this clear area, MLCape has risen to 500-1000
J/kg which has allowed thunderstorms to develop and persist across
the threat area. PWATs across the region are over 2 inches, and
latest 18Z upper air soundings from KOKX have freezing levels
nearing 15 kft, above the 90th percentile for the date. This deep
warm cloud depth and high PWAT is allowing efficient rain
processes, with rainfall rates over 2"/hr estimated recently by
KOKX radar.

Although instability weakens north of the front, warm advection
atop the boundary is driving lift, aided by weak PVA and
diffluence within a 300mb jet entrance region. 18Z soundings from
CHH and OKX have 20kts of 0-6km shear, so multicell development is
possible, which could train thanks to boundary parallel flow and
corfidi vectors aligned with the 0-6km mean wind.

The high res guidance is varied in continuing or intensifying
convection through the remainder of the afternoon, but the
sufficient lift in a very moist environment supports at least a
continuation of a heavy rain threat through this evening. Many
places within the threat area have received 2-4" of rainfall in
the past 24 hours, and these antecedent conditions lead to an
enhanced flash flood threat. An additional 1 to as much as 3
inches of rainfall is possible, and flash flooding will be
possible where rain rates become 2"/hr.

Weiss

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...OKX...
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21 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0828
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
322 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

Areas affected...SE NY...Long Island...Southern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121921Z - 130000Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with rainfall rates up to
2"/hr will continue along a stationary front this afternoon. Flash
flooding is possible.

Discussion...GOES-16 visible imagery shows a clear demarcation of
clear sky conditions along and south of a surface boundary draped
along the coast from near Philadelphia, PA northeast towards
Chatham, MA. Within this clear area, MLCape has risen to 500-1000
J/kg which has allowed thunderstorms to develop and persist across
the threat area. PWATs across the region are over 2 inches, and
latest 18Z upper air soundings from KOKX have freezing levels
nearing 15 kft, above the 90th percentile for the date. This deep
warm cloud depth and high PWAT is allowing efficient rain
processes, with rainfall rates over 2"/hr estimated recently by
KOKX radar.

Although instability weakens north of the front, warm advection
atop the boundary is driving lift, aided by weak PVA and
diffluence within a 300mb jet entrance region. 18Z soundings from
CHH and OKX have 20kts of 0-6km shear, so multicell development is
possible, which could train thanks to boundary parallel flow and
corfidi vectors aligned with the 0-6km mean wind.

The high res guidance is varied in continuing or intensifying
convection through the remainder of the afternoon, but the
sufficient lift in a very moist environment supports at least a
continuation of a heavy rain threat through this evening. Many
places within the threat area have received 2-4" of rainfall in
the past 24 hours, and these antecedent conditions lead to an
enhanced flash flood threat. An additional 1 to as much as 3
inches of rainfall is possible, and flash flooding will be
possible where rain rates become 2"/hr.

Weiss

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...OKX...

Yea, areas in northern LI continue to get pounded

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2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

The New England section of LI?

What? There were flash flood warnings for much of Suffolk county earlier. I can’t upload photos here for some reason, but go to RadarScope storm history. @uofmiami posted on another board that he recorded nearly 2” in northern Nassau. 

 

 

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4 hours ago, psv88 said:

What? There were flash flood warnings for much of Suffolk county earlier. I can’t upload photos here for some reason, but go to RadarScope storm history. @uofmiami posted on another board that he recorded nearly 2” in northern Nassau. 

 

 

Yes, 1.85” fell in Muttontown for the day. 1.70” came within an hour this afternoon.

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9 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Are we in Seattle or NY?

More like Denmark in the spring.  If you looked at the 500 MB map the last 8 days youd think we would have been +8 - 10.  ONce we clear in 2023 we should warmup nicely.

 

In all seriousness - ECM is back to predominant higher heights in the Sep 20 - 24 period perhaps the next window for a little late season heat. 

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