donsutherland1 Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 2002 and 2016 sound good to me, Don, 1983 maybe for next year. I stay away from the 11 yr big heat years unless we're at that point in the solar cycle so years like 1933, 1944, 1955, 1966, 1977, 1988, 1999, 2010, etc., makes you wonder what kind of summer 2021 might be like on top of the already warming climate. 2015-16 had the strongest El Niño on record. 2016-17 was a la niña winter. Also, on a separate note, the 6z GFS seems to have come more in line with the EPS (northern cluster of solutions) in taking Florence up the Chesapeake Bay. The ECMWF was in the southern cluster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Sooo is the humidity supposed to drop today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 38 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: 2015-16 had the strongest El Niño on record. 2016-17 was a la niña winter. Also, on a separate note, the 6z GFS seems to have come more in line with the EPS (northern cluster of solutions) in taking Florence up the Chesapeake Bay. The ECMWF was in the southern cluster. Yes I fixed that, I confused 2015 and 2016 lol. And the upper air pattern is similar to September 2015 right now, isn't it, Don? Wow, doesn't that sound like the 1933 hurricane? I just heard that one mentioned on TWC, killed 47 people and caused $40 million in damages went up Chesapeake Bay as a Cat 1 and hit DC and then went over interior PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 23 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Sooo is the humidity supposed to drop today? Later tonight and tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 We could see some moderate coastal flooding and beach erosion on Monday as the Gordon remnant low tightens the gradient with the big high to the north. It will be in a new moon period with the highest astronomical tides of September. So all we need is a 1-2 foot surge for moderate flooding especially in places on the back bays like Freeport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Wow 5 hours sounds absolutely exhausting! When you said your car was floating, I bet you were wishing for more "gravity"! I'm pretty used to spending 8-12 hours a day traveling so that in itself isn't too big a deal but when you kind of have your mind set on ~3 hours and it ends up at 5 those last few are rough. Last week I had a great solo trip up to Toronto with a stop at a brewery in Syracuse for lunch and one work stop for another hour so instead of 8 hours if I had done it straight through it ended up closer to 11. I actually enjoy the windshield time. Yeah when the rear end lost traction and the car started to go sideways with a wave created by an suv it was a bit disconcerting As it bumped the curb on the side it regained traction and shot out of the water pretty easily. I hate how when traffic here in the NY area is really tight and you can't stop and have to just "dive in" because otherwise you're gonna shut down a whole road. That's what happened on the Hutch, there were cars sitting in the middle of the road after apparently screaming into deep water at highway speed and the WPD had the road closed and were making everybody leave and head onto surface streets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Bluewave, was today JFK's 40th 75+ dew point day and did JFK reach or exceed 200 hours with a heat index of 90 or higher? I see the dew point at JFK at 6 AM is 74 so it looks like today is another 75+ dew point day. Thursday was the 39th day with a 75 degree or higher dew point. JFK surpassed 2010 for total heat index hours of 90 or higher with 199. That goes to show what record breaking humidity can do with many fewer actual 90 degree days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Through September 6, New York City (Central Park) has had a mean monthly temperature of 80.2°. Only 1898 (84.2°), 1953 (83.1°), 1973 (82.6°), and 1961 (82.3°) had a warmer start to the month. Further, since 1869, only 7 prior years saw September 1-6 have a mean temperature of 80.0° or above. In 4/7 (57%) of those prior cases, September wound up having a mean temperature of 70.0° or above. The average figure for those cases was 70.5° and the median figure was 70.3°. If 2018 has a mean September temperature of 70.0° or above, the record streak of consecutive years with such September warmth would be extended to 4. The evolving climate has increased the probability of such warmth in September. Since 1869, there have been 34 cases during which September had a mean temperature of 70.0° or above. 19 (56%) of those cases occurred 1950 and afterward; 12 (35%) of those cases occurred 1980 and afterward. The return time of such September warmth has been decreasing: Historic (1869-2017): 4.4 years Prior to 1950: 5.4 years 1950-2017: 3.6 years 1980-2017: 3.2 years 1990-2017: 3.1 years 2000-2017: 2.3 years 2010-2017: 1.6 years Overall, the September mean temperature has also been increasing: Historic (1869-2017): 67.9° 1961-1990: 68.1° 1971-2000: 68.1° 1981-2010: 68.4° 1988-2017 (latest 30-year period): 68.9° 2000-2017: 69.5° 2010-2017: 70.5° Warmest 30-Year Period on record: 1988-2017: 68.9° Warmest 10-Year Period on record: 2008-2017: 69.9° Based on sensitivity analysis, sing a combination of the actual temperatures through 9/6, the MEX MOS for the next 10 days, and the EPS for the 5 days, and then seasonal readings for the remainder of the month, there is an implied 57% (+/- 5%) probability that September 2018 will have a mean temperature of 70.0° or above. That is almost an identical probability to the historic figure for cases where 9/1-6 had a mean temperature of 80.0° or above. Finally, there is an implied one-in-three chance that September 2018 could go on to have a mean temperature that tops the 74.5° record that was set in 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Yes I fixed that, I confused 2015 and 2016 lol. And the upper air pattern is similar to September 2015 right now, isn't it, Don? Wow, doesn't that sound like the 1933 hurricane? I just heard that one mentioned on TWC, killed 47 people and caused $40 million in damages went up Chesapeake Bay as a Cat 1 and hit DC and then went over interior PA? Such a track is well within the realm of possibility. The threat to the East Coast has increased in recent days. By early next week, the details will start to come into focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 ^^^^^^ September has become the 4th month of Summer during the 2010's. LGA recorded the most 70 degree or warmer Septembers of any decade. Only 2013 finished cooler than 70 degrees. LGA 2017....71.5....#9 warmest 2016....73.8.....#4 2015....74.1.....#3 2014....70.4 2013....68.1 2012....70.7 2011....70.7 2010...72.5....#7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 the 1880's and 1890's still have heat records still on the books...1881's 101 degree day is second only to the 102 in 1953...1895 was the latest for the hottest temp of the year on 9/22 and the 97 degrees that day is the latest 97 degree day on record...1898 for its warmest start... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 70 degree dewpoints return monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 28 minutes ago, uncle W said: the 1880's and 1890's still have heat records still on the books...1881's 101 degree day is second only to the 102 in 1953...1895 was the latest for the hottest temp of the year on 9/22 and the 97 degrees that day is the latest 97 degree day on record...1898 for its warmest start... Hearing about heatwaves from way back then makes me wonder how anyone could bear living here without AC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 30 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Hearing about heatwaves from way back then makes me wonder how anyone could bear living here without AC. it must have been nuts back then... 1881 heat... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1881-09-07/ed-1/seq-2/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1881-09-07/ed-1/seq-5/ 1881 heat... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50447683 http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1881-09-08/ed-1/seq-5/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 it likely wasn't as humid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 1 hour ago, uncle W said: the 1880's and 1890's still have heat records still on the books...1881's 101 degree day is second only to the 102 in 1953...1895 was the latest for the hottest temp of the year on 9/22 and the 97 degrees that day is the latest 97 degree day on record...1898 for its warmest start... The one big monthly warmth record that still holds on from the earlier era is the January 1932 record of 43.2. The most impressive winter warmth has occurred in December and February during the 2010's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The one big monthly warmth record that still holds on from the earlier era is the January 1932 record of 43.2. The most impressive winter warmth has occurred in December and February during the 2010's. 1932 had a colder 30 day period in NYC than 1997-98 and another year that escapes me...the late summer, fall and winter of 1931-32 is up near the top for warmth during that period... as a kid growing up and living thru the 1980's I would never have dreamed or wish cast the amount of snowy winters since 1993...not to mention the 20" storms and 50" seasons... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 17 minutes ago, forkyfork said: it likely wasn't as humid 1881 was a lot drier heading into the heat wave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 1 minute ago, uncle W said: 1932 had a colder 30 day period in NYC than 1997-98 and another year that escapes me...the late summer, fall and winter of 1931-32 is up near the top for warmth during that period... as a kid growing up and living thru the 1980's I would never have dreamed or wish cast the amount of snowy winters since 1993...not to mention the 20" storms and 50" seasons... The 96-97 to 01-02 snow drought was brutal. I don't think any of us could have imagined back then the remarkable snow run that would follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 96-97 to 01-02 snow drought was brutal. I don't think any of us could have imagined back then the remarkable snow run that would follow. it was a four year drought...5 of 6...the longest drought was six years from 1949-50 to 1954-55...the first six winters of my life......good thing I was to young to remember... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 54 minutes ago, uncle W said: 1932 had a colder 30 day period in NYC than 1997-98 and another year that escapes me...the late summer, fall and winter of 1931-32 is up near the top for warmth during that period... as a kid growing up and living thru the 1980's I would never have dreamed or wish cast the amount of snowy winters since 1993...not to mention the 20" storms and 50" seasons... this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 1 hour ago, uncle W said: it was a four year drought...5 of 6...the longest drought was six years from 1949-50 to 1954-55...the first six winters of my life......good thing I was to young to remember... Unc, that was the first nine years of my life and my memory revolves around slush and soaked snow pants. That’s what a lot of us wore at the time. Snow/slush balls were brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Guess everyone's concentrating on Florence but nams rain next three days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: 70 degree dewpoints return monday Is that circulation over MI the remnants of Gordon? 3 hours ago, uncle W said: as a kid growing up and living thru the 1980's I would never have dreamed or wish cast the amount of snowy winters since 1993...not to mention the 20" storms and 50" seasons... No doubt. I just figured the two big storms in 1978 were a fluke until early 94 when I realized that it was really possible to get a good winter around here. I still wouldn't have expected what we've been through this century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 6 hours ago, bluewave said: Thursday was the 39th day with a 75 degree or higher dew point. JFK surpassed 2010 for total heat index hours of 90 or higher with 199. That goes to show what record breaking humidity can do with many fewer actual 90 degree days. Chris, I think it's possible we might get our 40th 75+ dew point day next week as the WAR looks to get stronger and stronger, and should exceed 200 hours in 90+ heat indices too. Does 1983 have the record at 239 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 5 hours ago, bluewave said: ^^^^^^ September has become the 4th month of Summer during the 2010's. LGA recorded the most 70 degree or warmer Septembers of any decade. Only 2013 finished cooler than 70 degrees. LGA 2017....71.5....#9 warmest 2016....73.8.....#4 2015....74.1.....#3 2014....70.4 2013....68.1 2012....70.7 2011....70.7 2010...72.5....#7 The only months bucking the warming trend to any degree (pun intended) are October and January I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 4 hours ago, uncle W said: the 1880's and 1890's still have heat records still on the books...1881's 101 degree day is second only to the 102 in 1953...1895 was the latest for the hottest temp of the year on 9/22 and the 97 degrees that day is the latest 97 degree day on record...1898 for its warmest start... and after that latest hottest temp of the year we had an amazing winter, January 1896 was the famous "cold" Blizzard (two to three feet of snow with temps near 0.) 1898-1899 Winter speaks for itself, an amazing November and February, with snow all the way down to Florida and the big 3 foot snowstorm at Cape May in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 4 hours ago, forkyfork said: 70 degree dewpoints return monday And perhaps more 75+ dew points thereafter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 3 hours ago, uncle W said: 1881 was a lot drier heading into the heat wave... Sounds a lot like 1966. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 3 hours ago, uncle W said: it was a four year drought...5 of 6...the longest drought was six years from 1949-50 to 1954-55...the first six winters of my life......good thing I was to young to remember... I grew up during the 80s and early 90s, graduated HS in 1991, those years really sucked too. No snow days, although some opening delays and early closings for our 4-5" (rare) snowfalls. One big outlier was the Feb 1983 blizzard for which we got an early closing (by an hour) which was on a Friday afternoon before midwinter recess and the April 1982 blizzard which occurred during our spring break. The only other snowstorms of any decent magnitude was a December snowstorm of like 8-9 inches that occurred on a weekend and a 7" incher that started right after the school day ended. We did have Gloria in 1985 and Bob in 1991, that and a big severe weather outbreak in October 1989 are all I remember from that period, outside of the various big heat waves where we went above 100 and the one or two big arctic outbreaks we had where we went below zero (which is why I became a fan of big temp extremes), and 1983 when we set the yearly rainfall record (which still stands) and which was our hottest summer of the period and also the year with our latest snowfall, (2" on April 20.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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