Winter 2018 Discussion

[buckeye]

4 hours ago, pondo1000 said:

You are like a grumpy ole’ man any more! LOL

pondo's alive!

oh trust me I'm still a happy dumb weenie when it comes to tracking the big ones.  I'll never stop model watching for the next memorable winterstorm....I just have far less tolerance for our usual pennies, nickles,  and stretches of cloudy frigid weather.   Blech

Besides it's a money thing too.  The less ability for us to get outside and do our thing, the less cashflow there is....which is why a 'green' winter for me truly means a 'green' winter 

Let me sum up this way when it comes to winter:     Bury me...torch me...or leave me the hell alone 

[Jonger]

1 hour ago, buckeye said:

pondo's alive!

oh trust me I'm still a happy dumb weenie when it comes to tracking the big ones.  I'll never stop model watching for the next memorable winterstorm....I just have far less tolerance for our usual pennies, nickles,  and stretches of cloudy frigid weather.   Blech

Besides it's a money thing too.  The less ability for us to get outside and do our thing, the less cashflow there is....which is why a 'green' winter for me truly means a 'green' winter 

Let me sum up this way when it comes to winter:     Bury me...torch me...or leave me the hell alone 

Cold weather hurts my business too. I just live by the motto that "It's gonna do what it's gonna do" when it comes to weather.

[IWXwx]

1 hour ago, buckeye said:

Let me sum up this way when it comes to winter:     Bury me...torch me...or leave me the hell alone

Well said.

[beavis1729]

Don Sutherland's winter outlook is in the main forum, for those who are interested.  Here is an excerpt of his seasonal snowfall estimates:

Albany: 70”-80”
Atlanta: 3”-6”
Baltimore: 30”-40”
Binghamton: 85”-95”
Boston: 55”-65”
Buffalo: 100”-110”
Burlington: 80”-90”
Chicago: 45”-55”
Detroit: 50”-60”
Nashville: 5”-15”
New York City: 45”-55”
Newark: 45”-55”
Philadelphia: 40”-50”
Providence: 50”-60”
Richmond: 30”-40”
Scranton: 50”-60”
Sterling: 28”-38”
Washington, DC: 25”-35”

[Chambana]

Either we are in for another historic winter, or a severely front loaded winter. 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Don Sutherland's winter outlook is in the main forum, for those who are interested.  Here is an excerpt of his seasonal snowfall estimates:

Albany: 70”-80”
Atlanta: 3”-6”
Baltimore: 30”-40”
Binghamton: 85”-95”
Boston: 55”-65”
Buffalo: 100”-110”
Burlington: 80”-90”
Chicago: 45”-55”
Detroit: 50”-60”
Nashville: 5”-15”
New York City: 45”-55”
Newark: 45”-55”
Philadelphia: 40”-50”
Providence: 50”-60”
Richmond: 30”-40”
Scranton: 50”-60”
Sterling: 28”-38”
Washington, DC: 25”-35”

Hopefully Don is on the right track for our area.  I didn't like what I saw in a number of years I consider to be analogs, but the upper end of my snowfall range was very close to average.  The relatively fast start has been nice to see but it doesn't necessarily correlate to a much snowier than average winter.  

[Stebo]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Hopefully Don is on the right track for our area.  I didn't like what I saw in a number of years I consider to be analogs, but the upper end of my snowfall range was very close to average.  The relatively fast start has been nice to see but it doesn't necessarily correlate to a much snowier than average winter.  

I agree with most of what he is saying but I see a bit of division closer to 02-03 where Chicago was below normal but Detroit was above normal. Maybe not as dramatic but close.

[Hoosier]

11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Hopefully Don is on the right track for our area.  I didn't like what I saw in a number of years I consider to be analogs, but the upper end of my snowfall range was very close to average.  The relatively fast start has been nice to see but it doesn't necessarily correlate to a much snowier than average winter.  

To clarify this... November snow at Chicago does correlate once it gets over 6".  Novembers with over 6" have often resulted in snowy winters, but a recent exception to that was 2015-16.

[RCNYILWX]

I'm planning to post the LOT winter outlook to the web and social media on Wednesday. We're going with near normal temps, to possibly below normal, near to below normal precip and near normal snowfall.

 

Based off 81-10 climate normal period, the middle 50th or 33rd percentile of avg temps for winter in Chicago is in mid to upper 20s and snowfall is in upper 20s to around 40" (~27-28" to ~40-42"). These can kind of be seen as the typical ranges instead of focusing exclusively on 26.4 for normal DJF avg temp and 36.3" for normal seasonal snowfall.

 

In the 12 weak Niños since 1950 as defined by CPC, 11 had near to above normal snow in Chicago. 2002-03 was the lone exception. 9 of the 12 were near to below normal temps and 8 of 12 were near to below normal precip. Our main thinking is that a solidly warm winter (near/above 30° DJF avg) is less likely. Snowfall is certainly tricky and cant rule out a 02-03 like scenario here despite our head start. The near normal in our outlook would probably fall into the 30s to around 40/low 40s part of the range.

 

Looking forward to seeing response on here from those who read the outlook when we post it.

 

 

 

 

[Hoosier]

40 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I'm planning to post the LOT winter outlook to the web and social media on Wednesday. We're going with near normal temps, to possibly below normal, near to below normal precip and near normal snowfall.

 

Based off 81-10 climate normal period, the middle 50th or 33rd percentile of avg temps for winter in Chicago is in mid to upper 20s and snowfall is in upper 20s to around 40" (~27-28" to ~40-42"). These can kind of be seen as the typical ranges instead of focusing exclusively on 26.4 for normal DJF avg temp and 36.3" for normal seasonal snowfall.

 

In the 12 weak Niños since 1950 as defined by CPC, 11 had near to above normal snow in Chicago. 2002-03 was the lone exception. 9 of the 12 were near to below normal temps and 8 of 12 were near to below normal precip. Our main thinking is that a solidly warm winter (near/above 30° DJF avg) is less likely. Snowfall is certainly tricky and cant rule out a 02-03 like scenario here despite our head start. The near normal in our outlook would probably fall into the 30s to around 40/low 40s part of the range.

 

Looking forward to seeing response on here from those who read the outlook when we post it.

 

 

 

 

RC, did you guys look at borderline/low end moderate DJF like 68-69 and 94-95 or just weak Ninos?

[RCNYILWX]

We focused on weak Niños but including lower end moderate events doesnt change the picture much. This graphic below is interesting because it shows the findings well that outside of the strongest Niños, a majority of episodes are near to below normal for the sub forum areas.

 

Edit:

The other thing is that despite the Niño SSTs already being in place, a sufficient atmospheric response hasn't been noted yet to declare the event. With it being only 11 days from met winter starting, it probably doesnt matter at this point whether the ONI reading is in the weak or low end moderate range w.r.t. magnitude of ENSO forcing, assuming it occurs, it'll be a weak event for all intents and purposes for Dec-Mar period.

 

 

 

 

[Baum]

If your winter weather fan in Chicago weak El Niño is a good thing. No meteorology. Just my experience. Time will tell. As always a nice, and appreciated write up by RC.

[RCNYILWX]

LOT winter outlook is posted on our website:
https://www.weather.gov/lot/Winter201819_Outlook



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[Hoosier]

Nice job RC (and Kevin).  

[RCNYILWX]

Nice job RC (and Kevin).  

Thanks!

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[Hoosier]

On 11/10/2018 at 1:19 PM, Hoosier said:

Here's my winter call for ORD.  

Temperatures (DJF):  near to below average... 0 to -2

Snowfall (first to last flake):  below average... 25-35"

There's the usual caveat about one very big storm pretty much ruining a call for below average snow.  I'd gladly be wrong on the snow part.  

Interested in seeing LOT's winter forecast and if it looks anything like mine lol 

Oops

[Stebo]

57 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Oops

You are calling for a horrible DJF? 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

You are calling for a horrible DJF? 

After this storm, even a somewhat subpar to run of the mill DJF would lock in a snowier than average season.  We'll see where ORD is tomorrow but they should have a great chance to end up snowier than average.

[Snowstorms]

19 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

After this storm, even a somewhat subpar to run of the mill DJF would lock in a snowier than average season.  We'll see where ORD is tomorrow but they should have a great chance to end up snowier than average.

It takes just one decent storm to change everything. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Total accumulated snowfall this season. Central Minnesota, Central/Western Iowa and most of Indiana seem to be the early season losers. 

 

Hopefully we can squeeze out an inch tonight and thread the needle with the weekend system up here. 

[luckyweather]

1 minute ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Total accumulated snowfall this season.

Wild that its not 12/1 yet and there have been flakes in every state except Florida and Hawaii (assuming Mauna Kea and Haleakala havent seen snow yet, and assuming the far northeast corner of Georgia got a T as it looks like on the map).  

 

[RobertSul]

23 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Total accumulated snowfall this season. Central Minnesota, Central/Western Iowa and most of Indiana seem to be the early season losers. 

 

Hopefully we can squeeze out an inch tonight and thread the needle with the weekend system up here. 

How often is it that every state in the CONUS, except one, has had at least a trace of snow before December?

[IWXwx]

53 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Total accumulated snowfall this season. Central Minnesota, Central/Western Iowa and most of Indiana seem to be the early season losers. 

 

Hopefully we can squeeze out an inch tonight and thread the needle with the weekend system up here. 

Quite the IN/OH sucker hole.

[Frog Town]

Is this what will evolve?  Cool read for those in the lower lakes

https://www.weather.gov/dtx/winter0203review

[RogueWaves]

On 12/7/2018 at 1:33 PM, Frog Town said:

Is this what will evolve?  Cool read for those in the lower lakes

https://www.weather.gov/dtx/winter0203review 

Hoping for more moisture-laden systems than we had that year.

[Hoosier]

This Nino continues to look like it will peak late... like in February or so.  That is unusual since they tend to peak in late fall or at least by the end of December. Not sure how that could affect things down the line but maybe it would be more of a late winter into spring thing.