Hoosier Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 2 hours ago, IWXwx said: Snow total map from 2004. I-70 from Eastern Illinois through Indiana seems to be a screw hole for big dogs. That is depth, which reflects settling that occurred. The one below is what fell. The color keys are different which took me a second to figure out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 Absolutely right. I posted the wrong map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 18 minutes ago, Hoosier said: That is depth, which reflects settling that occurred. The one below is what fell. The color keys are different which took me a second to figure out lol What a great storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 Well, hopefully we will get lucky and see a foot snowstorm this winter. The most snow I've experienced in a single snowstorm was 10" in the 1993 Blizzard. I did get to experience my coldest temp ever last year when I was here as it got down to -12 ! I just hope this winter isn't dry like El Nino winters tend to be in the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 Although I don't think he's released a winter forecast yet, good ole Coz makes a pretty bold claim: "...you will have to wait until the last week of December, and possibly beyond, before you get get yourself into winter mode in U.S. locations". Seems to be referring to the eastern US and his reasoning being placed on anemic signs of any good blocking thru Nov and Dec. We shall see, most forecasts I've seen are pretty bullish for winter in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 2 hours ago, buckeye said: Although I don't think he's released a winter forecast yet, good ole Coz makes a pretty bold claim: "...you will have to wait until the last week of December, and possibly beyond, before you get get yourself into winter mode in U.S. locations". Seems to be referring to the eastern US and his reasoning being placed on anemic signs of any good blocking thru Nov and Dec. We shall see, most forecasts I've seen are pretty bullish for winter in the east. You can still have a good winter overall with a bad December. Just makes it harder to have a historically good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: You can still have a good winter overall with a bad December. Just makes it harder to have a historically good winter. Of course you can, but I'm getting really hungry for a winter that starts in December and ends earlier. March and April of this year were horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: You can still have a good winter overall with a bad December. Just makes it harder to have a historically good winter. 98-99 for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 1 hour ago, Stebo said: 98-99 for example. Yeah, prime example. That December wasn't just a little bad, it was awful. But then there was the big storm to open 1999 and some more action later on. Not a legendary winter by any means but good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 1 hour ago, (((Will))) said: I would disagree. I guess it's in the eye of the beholder. I do think it gets harder to make the argument that winter can end up being good if you lose December in the snowier areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 You can absolutely have a good Winter with a bad December, just like you can have a bad Winter with a good December. What I have noticed is that if it is one or the other, whatever happens the 2nd half of Winter is what people remember. You can have be buried in snow in December, but then have a mild rest of Winter, and when that Winter is referenced shortly thereafter, people remember how mild it was. On the other hand, you can have a mild December with little snow then get slammed after New Years, and people reference it is a harsh Winter. All that said, I feel we are due for a less snowy December than the ones we've had recently here, but I certainly hope it is not that bad. Naturally once we get to December, even in warm december's we can get good snow storms and good Lake effect snow. I'm sure cosgroves comment is very East Coast biased. He references a cooler November in the center of the country with warm on the East and West coasts. Also says it will be stormy. Also hints at a potent Winter for the East shaping up after Christmas, so hopefully it hits our area before then lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 45 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: You can absolutely have a good Winter with a bad December, just like you can have a bad Winter with a good December. What I have noticed is that if it is one or the other, whatever happens the 2nd half of Winter is what people remember. You can have be buried in snow in December, but then have a mild rest of Winter, and when that Winter is referenced shortly thereafter, people remember how mild it was. On the other hand, you can have a mild December with little snow then get slammed after New Years, and people reference it is a harsh Winter. All that said, I feel we are due for a less snowy December than the ones we've had recently here, but I certainly hope it is not that bad. Naturally once we get to December, even in warm december's we can get good snow storms and good Lake effect snow. I'm sure cosgroves comment is very East Coast biased. He references a cooler November in the center of the country with warm on the East and West coasts. Also says it will be stormy. Also hints at a potent Winter for the East shaping up after Christmas, so hopefully it hits our area before then lol Yeah that's probably the case for many of us outside of the snow belts. Last season was off to a pretty slow start here, going into Feb with <10" for the season. Ended up with over 40", and had that awesome 11" event in late March. Definitely made the misery of the first few months fade away. On the flip side we got missed by pretty much everything the rest of the season following GHDI back in early 2011. Left a little bitter taste in the mouth despite the epic-ness that was GHDI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 Then there was Dec 1989, BRUTAL cold hitting -18 here at the climax. Then the calendar switched to January and winter disappeared, never to truly return. In that instance, that December was so cold it almost overshadowed the rest of the mild months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 7 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah that's probably the case for many of us outside of the snow belts. Last season was off to a pretty slow start here, going into Feb with <10" for the season. Ended up with over 40", and had that awesome 11" event in late March. Definitely made the misery of the first few months fade away. On the flip side we got missed by pretty much everything the rest of the season following GHDI back in early 2011. Left a little bitter taste in the mouth despite the epic-ness that was GHDI. Coming off of our epic, historic Winter of 2013 -14, November of 2014 was very cold with several small snows and people were thinking another harsh Winter was on the way. Then December came and ended up being very blah with hardly any snow. But once the calendar turns to January the rest of the Winter was bitterly cold and had one huge snowstorm. so it was certainly remembered as another harsh Winter. Not nearly as severe as the one before, but still remembered as a harsh Winter, the icky December forgotten. Fast forward to 2016-17, we had plenty of snow in December but then the rest of the Winter was very mild with cycles of snow melt snow melt, the Winter itself was remembered as a very mild Winter. Ironic thing locally is if you look back at the past 4 december's? The last 2 were very snowy and the previous 2 were very low in snow. So if there's anything we are due for here....it is an average December, at least snow wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 3 hours ago, buckeye said: Then there was Dec 1989, BRUTAL cold hitting -18 here at the climax. Then the calendar switched to January and winter disappeared, never to truly return. In that instance, that December was so cold it almost overshadowed the rest of the mild months. 2000-01 is another one. It flipped to crap in January but it's pretty hard to forget that December. Generally speaking though, I don't disagree with michsnowfreak's point, especially among the general public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: 2000-01 is another one. It flipped to crap in January but it's pretty hard to forget that December. Generally speaking though, I don't disagree with michsnowfreak's point, especially among the general public. Oh and yes I was referring to the general public. We weather weenies remember everything lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: 2000-01 is another one. It flipped to crap in January but it's pretty hard to forget that December. Generally speaking though, I don't disagree with michsnowfreak's point, especially among the general public. I beleive that January ended up being a record warm January for many of us too. The '89 flip also went from record cold in December to above normal in January. The infamous JB rubberband breaking theory on full display. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 I just want a real winter around these parts. It's been 5 years since we've had a decent one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 I haven't been in a Winter Storm Warning since February of 2015 (partly due to being in the wrong place within the state during various events since that time). I did receive a surprise 6" in early April of this year (there wasn't even an advisory) but it would be nice to have a storm that you track for a while that prompts a Warning; I think half the fun with winter storms is the anticipation. Definitely want to break that streak this winter but part of me almost wants it to last until February so it can hit the 4 year mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 21 minutes ago, The_Doctor said: I haven't been in a Winter Storm Warning since February of 2015 (partly due to being in the wrong place within the state during various events since that time). I did receive a surprise 6" in early April of this year (there wasn't even an advisory) but it would be nice to have a storm that you track for a while that prompts a Warning; I think half the fun with winter storms is the anticipation. Definitely want to break that streak this winter but part of me almost wants it to last until February so it can hit the 4 year mark. Dang. Hearing all of these stories from others really puts Chicago winters into perspective... even in a bad year, we usually have at least one warning-worthy event in Northern Illinois I'd say (correct me if I'm wrong, I've only lived here for ten years lol). You're definitely right; the snowstorm itself is only half the fun. It's the days before, with a significant event becoming more and more likely with every model run, that really crown a storm. I feel cozy and wintery just thinking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 Not much discussion about the warm blob in the GOA and it's ramifications on the eastern U.S. The current set up in pacific is eerily similar to that of '13-'14. I think we basically need the warm blob to stay into December, and for the ENSO state to level out at weak. I feel like all eyes are this before anyone really makes a valid Winter Forecast, all goofy computer models aside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 3 hours ago, Malacka11 said: Dang. Hearing all of these stories from others really puts Chicago winters into perspective... even in a bad year, we usually have at least one warning-worthy event in Northern Illinois I'd say (correct me if I'm wrong, I've only lived here for ten years lol). You're definitely right; the snowstorm itself is only half the fun. It's the days before, with a significant event becoming more and more likely with every model run, that really crown a storm. I feel cozy and wintery just thinking about it. Yeah, I lived in the northern burbs my whole life until moving to Indiana in January 2015 (maybe I'm the cause of the OV snowstorm drought lol). It makes it just a bit more brutal, especially since I've missed a couple of big storms up that way. But climo rules all, not much you can do about it and you do get used to it after a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 1 minute ago, The_Doctor said: Yeah, I lived in the northern burbs my whole life until moving to Indiana in January 2015 (maybe I'm the cause of the OV snowstorm drought lol). It makes it just a bit more brutal, especially since I've missed a couple of big storms up that way. But climo rules all, not much you can do about it and you do get used to it after a while. Who knows, maybe we'll get a genuine crowd-pleaser this year. I may be mistaken, but it's been a while since we've had a share-the-wealth style event. The drought has to end sometime, all it takes is one storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 11 hours ago, Malacka11 said: Dang. Hearing all of these stories from others really puts Chicago winters into perspective... even in a bad year, we usually have at least one warning-worthy event in Northern Illinois I'd say (correct me if I'm wrong, I've only lived here for ten years lol). You're definitely right; the snowstorm itself is only half the fun. It's the days before, with a significant event becoming more and more likely with every model run, that really crown a storm. I feel cozy and wintery just thinking about it. That's a good point, sometimes I do forget that a good Winter here does not mean the same just to my South. Last winter was even more extreme than usual, as we had a very good Winter in Michigan but literally once you got to the state line it dropped off drastically. Hoping everyone scores this Winter, of course myself included he hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 1 hour ago, Frog Town said: Not much discussion about the warm blob in the GOA and it's ramifications on the eastern U.S. The current set up in pacific is eerily similar to that of '13-'14. I think we basically need the warm blob to stay into December, and for the ENSO state to level out at weak. I feel like all eyes are this before anyone really makes a valid Winter Forecast, all goofy computer models aside. Anything that references anything about 2013-14 sounds great to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Anything that references anything about 2013-14 sounds great to me! Preach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 27 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Who knows, maybe we'll get a genuine crowd-pleaser this year. I may be mistaken, but it's been a while since we've had a share-the-wealth style event. The drought has to end sometime, all it takes is one storm... Hard to get a storm to please everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 42 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Hard to get a storm to please everybody. True. I guess us Northwestern sub people will just have to bench it and let the OV take a big one for themselves. I think I could live with that... maybe, for one event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 7 hours ago, Malacka11 said: Who knows, maybe we'll get a genuine crowd-pleaser this year. I may be mistaken, but it's been a while since we've had a share-the-wealth style event. The drought has to end sometime, all it takes is one storm... Early January '99 was probably the most wide spread share the wealth event I can recall, even though the Chicago area got the brunt. Large sprawling area of antecedent arctic air with a moisture bomb coming out of the Gulf. Track of low didn't really effect precip type, (low tracked west of us), because by the time mid levels warmed, 90% of the precip ended. Usually when you get a set up like that a lot of folks get screwed with a sleet storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 9 hours ago, Hoosier said: Hard to get a storm to please everybody. Yep, in general if we are looking for that big boy snowstorm, someone has to be on the warm side. (And get all the s***t) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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