Winter 2018 Discussion

[hlcater]

5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

The blob is welcome to stay!

 

Was reading the winter thread on the new England forum. Euro seasonal has us in a colder but drier than avg winter. Again, drier does not necessarily mean less snow than avg. Give me average snowfall with constant snowcover and im fine. 

 

There really are lots of different scenarios being thrown out there.

The blob ruins severe season. Let's compromise and get rid of it by the end of February.

[michsnowfreak]

11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Hopefully we avoid the crappy December this year, which seems to be something that happens too often in Ninos (at least the past 30-40 years).  The last Nino December that wasn't a total disaster in my book was probably 2009, but opinions may vary depending on where you live.   2004 and 2006 had a couple nice storms, but you were pretty much screwed if you weren't hit by those.

Dec 2002 was good. I was hit by the 2004 storm but not 2006. But yes, i too hope we dont have a crappy December. Especially since the last two december's were very snowy here- 2016 was Detroits 14th snowiest Dec (13th at the time) and 2017 the 5th snowiest.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Dec 2002 was good. I was hit by the 2004 storm but not 2006. But yes, i too hope we dont have a crappy December. Especially since the last two december's were very snowy here- 2016 was Detroits 14th snowiest Dec (13th at the time) and 2017 the 5th snowiest.

I looked at nino decembers...quite variable actually. At least here.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I looked at nino decembers...quite variable actually. At least here.

I bet very few really good ones though, at least since 1980.  What I encountered in the data going back to then was that sometimes the monthly snow total wasn't bad, but the month was warm overall.  Then there were others that simply sucked from a cold AND snow perspective.  Nino Decembers seemed better overall in the 70s for whatever reason.

As far as the storms I mentioned in my other post, the OV into the southeastern Lakes got the big pre-Christmas storm in 2004.  Then there was the storm that nailed MO/IL/WI at the beginning of Dec 2006.

[BuffaloWeather]

Weak Ninos are our best winters here in Upstate. 

[josh_4184]

Does anyone remember what was the enso state for 2008-2009 Winter season?

[Hoosier]

10 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Does anyone remember what was the enso state for 2008-2009 Winter season?

That was a weak Nina.

[josh_4184]

13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

That was a weak Nina.

Thank you

[michsnowfreak]

On 10/22/2018 at 12:00 PM, Hoosier said:

I bet very few really good ones though, at least since 1980.  What I encountered in the data going back to then was that sometimes the monthly snow total wasn't bad, but the month was warm overall.  Then there were others that simply sucked from a cold AND snow perspective.  Nino Decembers seemed better overall in the 70s for whatever reason.

As far as the storms I mentioned in my other post, the OV into the southeastern Lakes got the big pre-Christmas storm in 2004.  Then there was the storm that nailed MO/IL/WI at the beginning of Dec 2006.

 Admittedly I only looked at snowfall, not average temperature

[michsnowfreak]

Regarding the dry winter scenario, last winter would have finished as a drier than avg winter had it not been for a late Feb rainstorm, but yet snowfall was well above avg. Just another example of how easy it is to have above avg snow in a dry winter.

[slow poke]

On ‎10‎/‎22‎/‎2018 at 1:08 PM, josh_4184 said:

Does anyone remember what was the enso state for 2008-2009 Winter season?

2008-09 was the last really good winter snow fall wise across all of northern lower MI. It was also the last time we had over 100" in a season at our cabin. Our average is 90", the past 10 seasons we have averaged 70", 20" below normal while at home in southern lower MI we have been close to 20" above.

[josh_4184]

2 hours ago, slow poke said:

2008-09 was the last really good winter snow fall wise across all of northern lower MI. It was also the last time we had over 100" in a season at our cabin. Our average is 90", the past 10 seasons we have averaged 70", 20" below normal while at home in southern lower MI we have been close to 20" above.

Yea, that is why i was wondering what the ENSO state was for that winter, my area had close to 200". Last few years have been average at best for the Northern Mi snowbelts. One of these years we will get another good LES hit. 

 

[michsnowfreak]

18 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

Yea, that is why i was wondering what the ENSO state was for that winter, my area had close to 200". Last few years have been average at best for the Northern Mi snowbelts. One of these years we will get another good LES hit. 

 

2008-09 was a snowy winter state wide.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, (((Will))) said:

I've noticed that. Every time I go to the lower peninsula the snow cuts off abruptly before the bridge.

Your area is an anomaly though. Suddenly you're driving past Gaylord and theres almost as much snow as in the Keweenaw. Then it abruptly stops outside of Saginaw and theres just brown grass.

There is almost always a lower spot near the bridge. I have been up north several times in February the past decade where the snow is deeper in Detroit than at the bridge. As for abruptly stopping to brown in Saginaw...Saginaw south to the state line is subject to more winter thaws so there will sometimes be brown periods, but far more of the winter is snowcovered than not. It seems that there is an annual low spot in northeast MI where no LES falls (tawas area) where they wont get the thaws but they get less snowfall than southern MI.

[josh_4184]

3 hours ago, (((Will))) said:

I've noticed that. Every time I go to the lower peninsula the snow cuts off abruptly before the bridge.

Your area is an anomaly though. Suddenly you're driving past Gaylord and theres almost as much snow as in the Keweenaw. Then it abruptly stops outside of Saginaw and theres just brown grass.

Yes, its all about elevation 1400'+ and location in a couple wind directions we get "help" from Lake Superior that helps intensify our LES over Lake Michigan. There is about a 50-70 sq mile area that will average 50"+ more per year then anywhere else in Northern Lower. My house is near the center of the high snowbelt area, but yes soon as you drive past Gaylord it is night and day difference even through the UP until you get north of M28. 

[Snowless in Carrollton]

This is my first year in the midwest. I was wondering.... Do places like Cincinnati and Indianapolis ever get big snowstorms like cities further east do, such as Baltimore and DC ?

[Hoosier]

14 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

This is my first year in the midwest. I was wondering.... Do places like Cincinnati and Indianapolis ever get big snowstorms like cities further east do, such as Baltimore and DC ?

I don't know as much about Cincinnati's storm history, but Indy has terrible big storm climo.  Getting a foot there is a huge deal and something that doesn't happen often.  It's weird though, because areas south of Indy have had storms around/over 2 feet... like southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. 

[michsnowfreak]

59 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I don't know as much about Cincinnati's storm history, but Indy has terrible big storm climo.  Getting a foot there is a huge deal and something that doesn't happen often.  It's weird though, because areas south of Indy have had storms around/over 2 feet... like southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. 

I thought snowless in Carrollton was in the Midwest last Winter? Anyway, Midwest and East Coast climatology are completely different. Regardless of your latitude in the midwest (it gets greater the further north you go), rule of thumb is more Winter in the Midwest, bigger storms in the East. Cincinnati and Indianapolis are capable of getting huge snowstorms, but they do not happen often. Although actually, Baltimore and DC have terrible Winter climo when you think about it. They can get monster storms, but without them, there is hardly any Winter there. 

[Snowless in Carrollton]

18 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I thought snowless in Carrollton was in the Midwest last Winter? Anyway, Midwest and East Coast climatology are completely different. Regardless of your latitude in the midwest (it gets greater the further north you go), rule of thumb is more Winter in the Midwest, bigger storms in the East. Cincinnati and Indianapolis are capable of getting huge snowstorms, but they do not happen often. Although actually, Baltimore and DC have terrible Winter climo when you think about it. They can get monster storms, but without them, there is hardly any Winter there. 

I said this is my first year in the midwest. I've been here since January. I found last winter pretty boring for the most part. The biggest snow we had here was 4". Back in GA where i'm from, they had a snowstorm close to a foot last winter.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I said this is my first year in the midwest. I've been here since January. I found last winter pretty boring for the most part. The biggest snow we had here was 4". Back in GA where i'm from, they had a snowstorm close to a foot last winter.

FYI, the biggest snowstorm on record for Indianapolis is 16.1" on February 16-17, 1910.  It looks like the biggest for Cincinnati is 18.5" on February 4-6, 1998. There are reports of a 24" storm in Cincinnati in 1863 but that is before records became official.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I said this is my first year in the midwest. I've been here since January. I found last winter pretty boring for the most part. The biggest snow we had here was 4". Back in GA where i'm from, they had a snowstorm close to a foot last winter.

That is probably unusually low for a biggest snow of the entire winter.

[Chambana]

Yeah getting 12”+ is a big deal especially in central Illinois, Indiana, Ohio. Our last 12” snowfall occurred 3/25/13 although the PVB came darn close. Other than that 2/13/07 was about as textbook as you’re going to get around these parts. 

 

Welcome to the Midwest btw. 

[snowlover2]

13 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Yeah getting 12”+ is a big deal especially in central Illinois, Indiana, Ohio. Our last 12” snowfall occurred 3/25/13 although the PVB came darn close. Other than that 2/13/07 was about as textbook as you’re going to get around these parts. 

 

Welcome to the Midwest btw. 

Haven't had a double digit snowfall here in Dayton since the March 7+8 2008 blizzard and no winter storm warning since February 2015. To say we are overdue for a big one this side of the sub is a gross understatement.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

That is probably unusually low for a biggest snow of the entire winter.

Not sure about that.  A 6" storm is like a once every other year thing in that area (on average) so I wouldn't be surprised if a 4" snow only occurs once or maybe twice a year.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

2 hours ago, Chambana said:

Yeah getting 12”+ is a big deal especially in central Illinois, Indiana, Ohio. Our last 12” snowfall occurred 3/25/13 although the PVB came darn close. Other than that 2/13/07 was about as textbook as you’re going to get around these parts. 

 

Welcome to the Midwest btw. 

It really surprises me that big snowstorms are not more common along the I-70 corridor. You have the Gulf to the south that brings in copious amounts of moisture and usually temps are pretty cold here in winter. You would think moisture and cold air would combine more often.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Not sure about that.  A 6" storm is like a once every other year thing in that area (on average) so I wouldn't be surprised if a 4" snow only occurs once or maybe twice a year.

Lots and lots of 1-2" snows last winter.

[snowlover2]

33 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

It really surprises me that big snowstorms are not more common along the I-70 corridor. You have the Gulf to the south that brings in copious amounts of moisture and usually temps are pretty cold here in winter. You would think moisture and cold air would combine more often.

For E IN/W OH we need a track up the west side of the apps for a big snowstorm. The cold air has been the problem lately. There's either been to much of a push which keeps the storm too far south or not enough and we get rain/mix. 2 years ago there was a storm that took basically an ideal track but enough cold air was barely lacking. Started as rain here but switched to snow as the cold rushed in and still got 4-5"  of snow here. If cold would have been in place sooner, it might have been closer to 8-10". 

[RogueWaves]

6 hours ago, Chambana said:

Yeah getting 12”+ is a big deal especially in central Illinois, Indiana, Ohio. Our last 12” snowfall occurred 3/25/13 although the PVB came darn close. Other than that 2/13/07 was about as textbook as you’re going to get around these parts. 

 

Welcome to the Midwest btw. 

Dec '04 just prior to Christmas was a Big Dog down that way. That and the March '08 bliz come to mind. March '15 was a close call for Cinci as well as Dec '12 a nice storm hit down that way.

[buckeye]

13 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

It really surprises me that big snowstorms are not more common along the I-70 corridor. You have the Gulf to the south that brings in copious amounts of moisture and usually temps are pretty cold here in winter. You would think moisture and cold air would combine more often.

The Ohio River valley is the perfect geographic WTOD glide path for storms coming out of the SW.   It really requires a perfect balance between storm strength, cold air available, and track.

[IWXwx]

Snow total map from 2004. I-70 from Eastern Illinois through Indiana seems to be a screw hole for big dogs.