Winter 2018 Discussion

[michsnowfreak]

32 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Not the greatest look but again, wouldn't necessarily mean below average snow.

Isnt the ecmwf temp forecast cold?

[Hoosier]

27 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Isnt the ecmwf temp forecast cold?

Not sure

[stadiumwave]

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Not sure

 

Yes. I think he's referring to the precip anomalies; however, I would point out sometimes the best snows are NW of the above normal precip until you get to the coast. QPF usually higher in the warmer sides of storms & near coast.

Winter 1978 is a great example, it was one of the snowiest winters ever in my area yet we were below normal for precip for the winter.

Euro precip anomalies for winter look very 2009-10ish. 500mb not very 2009-10ish....not much -NAO very -EPO driven. 

[Hoosier]

JAMSTEC goes pretty nuts with the Nino. Gets it into strong territory for the bulk of winter.  That seems hard to believe but if it somehow verified, talk about throwing a wrench into the cold forecasts... barring a bailout from favorable blocking.

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

JAMSTEC goes pretty nuts with the Nino. Gets it into strong territory for the bulk of winter.  That seems hard to believe but if it somehow verified, talk about throwing a wrench into the cold forecasts... barring a bailout from favorable blocking.

Lol and the latest ukmet and euro seasonals show a colder than avg winter.  I looked at the JAMSTEC surface temp anomaly, and it certainly has the classic warmer than average to the North colder than average to the South strong nino look, however actual anomaly for the Great Lakes region is less than 1ﾟC warmer than avg. What I have noticed is that despite some long range models showing a colder than average Winter and some showing warmer than average, I have not seen any models show extreme temp anomalies one way or the other.

[Hoosier]

The ENSO behavior is looking like it could be similar to years like 1968-69 and 1986-87.  May get a similar peak but the other aspect is the late fade... both of those Ninos didn't do the typical weaken after early winter thing.  2014-15 may be another one but that one never faded and in fact grew to the infamous super Nino status for the next winter.

[luckyweather]

John Dee just released his winter forecast:

http://johndee.com/seasonalfcst/seasonalforecast.htm

Snippets for our areas:

REGION 1 – The Northwest Midwest: The news for most of this region is OK. This may not be a standout year for snows in most spots, but overall, it looks like most of the region will see close to average temps and snowfall occur for the season as a whole. This should lead to a fairly decent season for snow-play. The exceptions look to be the further west in the region you go. Areas of the western Dakotas look to see an increased chance for temps to run warmer than average and thus better chances for some snow loss during thaws.

REGION 2 – The Southeast Midwest: The news for this region is fairly similar or even a bit better than for the neighbors to the NW. Snowfall and temps both look to run fairly close to average, with an area of below average temps to occur across the OH River Valley. This colder than average setup could also cause more of the precipitation to fall as snow- rather than rain. My only other note to make is that folks should keep in mind what is actually average for their locale. Areas like northern IL, southern WI and southern MI see an 45-55” of snow fall on average. This does not typically lead to deep and lasting snowpack. Rather, it leads to having enough snow to play in during the second half of January and first half of February, sometimes longer if no major thaws occur.

[Hoosier]

2002 has been mentioned as an analog in various places.  Interestingly, September 2018 had a similar temperature look to 2002.  October 2018 is on the way to having a gradient like 2002, though we may not get the below average temps as far south.

 

[Stebo]

Big tor outbreak in Nov of 02 and that was a good winter for S and E parts of the region.

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Big tor outbreak in Nov of 02 and that was a good winter for S and E parts of the region.

That was an irritating winter around here. Could've been worse but it was excellent about 150 miles southeast.

[Stebo]

On 10/15/2018 at 10:32 PM, Hoosier said:

That was an irritating winter around here. Could've been worse but it was excellent about 150 miles southeast.

Yeah Chicago got the shaft that winter, I think it was like a 30" difference from there and here.

[Hoosier]

58 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yeah Chicago got the shaft that winter, I think it was like a 30" difference from there and here.

ORD had 28.6", I had thirty something, IND had 50" (one of their snowier winters) and DTW had 60.9"

[Stebo]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

ORD had 28.6", I had thirty something, IND had 50" (one of their snowier winters) and DTW had 60.9"

Ooof that is quite a divide. I know the day I went to visit CMU in early 03 there was a nice storm that hit the bottom 3 tiers of counties in SEMI, first week of January.

[Hoosier]

17 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Ooof that is quite a divide. I know the day I went to visit CMU in early 03 there was a nice storm that hit the bottom 3 tiers of counties in SEMI, first week of January.

Yeah, IND beating ORD by over 20" is crazy.  Indianapolis has beat Chicago in some winters, but not very often.  The only other time Indianapolis beat Chicago by over 20" was not long before that in 1995-96, when they finished almost 28" ahead.

[buckeye]

That winter started out frustrating for CMH with the Xmas Eve storm that had us on the warm side, but ended strong with the president's day weekend storm that gave us 15".  

When all seasonal forecasts seem to point in the same direction, they usually end up being wrong.  Right now the consensus favors southeast portions of sub to the coast.....we'll see.

[michsnowfreak]

1968-69 was a terrible Winter here, in fact it was Detroit's last sub 20" Winter on record. The other winters mentioned however were all good here. I myself was a big fan of 2002-03, had 69" imby, but I know just to the West it was not that good. My gut feeling on this Winter would be average to colder and snowier than average. As I said earlier, seasonal forecast models seem to be split, some going colder and some milder, but no extremes one way or the other seem to be in play temp wise. As for snow? It's hard not to go on the snowy side considering the overall snowiness of this century in this area. And the old-fashioned, take-with-a-grain-of-salt, nature signs do point toward a harsh Winter. Even the Almanacs are split. At the end of the day, I do not think this will be a terrible disaster Winter nor do I think it will be one of the greats. When there are so many conflicting signs, it's not a bad bet to just go average

[Hoosier]

Released today

Having trouble finding last months maps in the archives but I think it had EC for precip everywhere in our region, so this would represent a hedge toward drier if that's the case

[Stebo]

15 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Released today

Having trouble finding last months maps in the archives but I think it had EC for precip everywhere in our region, so this would represent a hedge toward drier if that's the case

#standardelninomapwithzeroskillinvolved

[RCNYILWX]

Released today Having trouble finding last months maps in the archives but I think it had EC for precip everywhere in our region, so this would represent a hedge toward drier if that's the case

 

Chiming back in after a long break. We won't put anything out locally (from LOT) until November but wanted to offer some prelim thoughts. Assuming we do have a weak Nino, the composite favors a cool east and warm west and a dry signal in this region. Interestingly the most recent Euro seasonal had this sort of look and the cold peaking in Feb like in recent weak to lower end moderate Ninos (02-03, 06-07 and 14-15). 

 

The change I would've made to the outlook would be to remove the low warm probs over southeast half of IA, southern WI, northern IL, far northern IN and southern lower MI and gotten rid of the warm probs in the northeast.

The dry signal here is pretty reasonable from past similar events. Of course all it takes is one big dog or a few sig events to skew the seasonal snowfall, which is what happened for parts of the sub in 2014-15. Outside of GHD II, that was a cool and mostly dry winter locally.

 

 

 

 

 

[IWXwx]

7 minutes ago, Stebo said:

#standardelninomapwithzeroskillinvolved

I saw that at work today and thought the exact same thing, even the text mentioned that other factors are involved, i.e. the MJO, AO, etc. But it still a "hey it's a nino, so lets throw that map out there!" map.

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Chiming back in after a long break. We won't put anything out locally (from LOT) until November but wanted to offer some prelim thoughts. Assuming we do have a weak Nino, the composite favors a cool east and warm west and a dry signal in this region. Interestingly the most recent Euro seasonal had this sort of look and the cold peaking in Feb like in recent weak to lower end moderate Ninos (02-03, 06-07 and 14-15). 

 

The change I would've made to the outlook would be to remove the low warm probs over southeast half of IA, southern WI, northern IL, far northern IN and southern lower MI and gotten rid of the warm probs in the northeast.

The dry signal here is pretty reasonable from past similar events. Of course all it takes is one big dog or a few sig events to skew the seasonal snowfall, which is what happened for parts of the sub in 2014-15. Outside of GHD II, that was a cool and mostly dry winter locally.

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah, even the moderate Ninos tend to be drier than average.  Doesn't necessarily mean below average snow as you mentioned.

I'm torn on the temp anomalies.  I do think there's a good chance that the dividing line between warmer/colder runs somewhere in our region, but whether it's in the northern Lakes, I-80-ish or the OV is tough to say.

[michsnowfreak]

25 minutes ago, Stebo said:

#standardelninomapwithzeroskillinvolved

Absolutely correct

[Hoosier]

11 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

I saw that at work today and thought the exact same thing, even the text mentioned that other factors are involved, i.e. the MJO, AO, etc. But it still a "hey it's a nino, so lets throw that map out there!" map.

There always seems to be a rush to get the outlooks out there... I'm speaking in general.  I really don't think it's possible to forecast the upcoming winter with any skill in September/October, especially if an overwhelmingly strong ENSO signal is lacking.  It's a bit more useful to wait until November but even then, there's a lot that can go wrong. 

[michsnowfreak]

19 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Chiming back in after a long break. We won't put anything out locally (from LOT) until November but wanted to offer some prelim thoughts. Assuming we do have a weak Nino, the composite favors a cool east and warm west and a dry signal in this region. Interestingly the most recent Euro seasonal had this sort of look and the cold peaking in Feb like in recent weak to lower end moderate Ninos (02-03, 06-07 and 14-15). 

 

The change I would've made to the outlook would be to remove the low warm probs over southeast half of IA, southern WI, northern IL, far northern IN and southern lower MI and gotten rid of the warm probs in the northeast.

The dry signal here is pretty reasonable from past similar events. Of course all it takes is one big dog or a few sig events to skew the seasonal snowfall, which is what happened for parts of the sub in 2014-15. Outside of GHD II, that was a cool and mostly dry winter locally.

 

 

 

 

 

There has been an undeniable trend in this area for increasing snowfall, however sometimes snowy, active winters mean there will be plenty of thaws and grinch rain storms that wash away nice snowpacks. I am not opposed to a Winter where the ground is white almost the entire time even though the final snow number is not super impressive. of course having the best of both worlds like in 2013 - 14 would be ideal, but is an extremely unrealistic expectation. 

[cyclone77]

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Released today

Having trouble finding last months maps in the archives but I think it had EC for precip everywhere in our region, so this would represent a hedge toward drier if that's the case

Below avg snowfall in southeast MI?  Toss

[luckyweather]

The blob is back (they are calling this one blob junior) and Anchorage hasn’t had a freeze yet. Have to watch to see if the blob hangs on and what condition it’s in by the end of November to see if it will be a factor for us this winter.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/10/18/persistent-alaska-warmth-this-fall-has-brought-back-blob-if-it-lasts-it-could-mean-wild-winter-lower/?utm_term=.e9782ecb9033

[buckeye]

33 minutes ago, luckyweather said:

The blob is back (they are calling this one blob junior) and Anchorage hasn’t had a freeze yet. Have to watch to see if the blob hangs on and what condition it’s in by the end of November to see if it will be a factor for us this winter.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/10/18/persistent-alaska-warmth-this-fall-has-brought-back-blob-if-it-lasts-it-could-mean-wild-winter-lower/?utm_term=.e9782ecb9033

Not always a good thing to see this stuff show up 2 months before the scheduled party....or maybe it locks in?

[michsnowfreak]

The blob is welcome to stay!

 

Was reading the winter thread on the new England forum. Euro seasonal has us in a colder but drier than avg winter. Again, drier does not necessarily mean less snow than avg. Give me average snowfall with constant snowcover and im fine. 

 

There really are lots of different scenarios being thrown out there.

[Hoosier]

Hopefully we avoid the crappy December this year, which seems to be something that happens too often in Ninos (at least the past 30-40 years).  The last Nino December that wasn't a total disaster in my book was probably 2009, but opinions may vary depending on where you live.   2004 and 2006 had a couple nice storms, but you were pretty much screwed if you weren't hit by those.

[Hoosier]

On that note, I'm curious to see the outlooks from the local NWS offices... if they will go with more of a later start (January) or not.