HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 Someones gotta bite the bullet and make this thread eventually, so I will. Current indications show a moderate to strong El Nino affecting us this winter, possibly leading to some interesting conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 I'd be surprised at a strong Nino on the trimonthlies even if modeling is suggesting it. Most of the time the warm episode is more developed by now in the strong years. I'd probably actually roll the dice with that though, because a stronger Nino would lead to a greater chance of above average precip. It's early, but my concern is that much of the region may be predisposed to be drier than average. Those types of winters can still be solid if the cold is fairly persistent, but have less shots at more significant storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 Interesting...I have seen comments in other sub forums suggesting that a weak and/or Modoki El Niño may be on the way...which would generally be good for our area. I guess it all just shows that it’s still a bit early to speculate. But we should have a much better idea in 3-4 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyweather Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 A weak Central/Modoki Nino seems to be the safe bet right now. Kirk Mellish has a good analysis on the current state of the Pacific and brings the solar minimum into it as well. A good read. https://www.wsbradio.com/weather/winter-outlook-ingredients/VEEbp2GMylFzqdwql1ltRO/ Some excerpts: * source region may be Canada vs Siberia which would favor less brutal cold, even with a Modoki influenced eastern trough. * favors an active STJ * record few sunspots can favor high latitude blocking, snowier in the east, or have no impact at all * other potentially important factors like the goa blob, autumn Eurasian snow cover, etc are just not in range yet, and so things could really go any way, not yet a long range crystal ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 I agree it's too early. It's all speculation at this point. Naturally the mainstream public will hear thepathetically watered and dumbed down story that an el nino is likely so that means warmer and drier than normal Winter. But obviously tons of factors come into play. Snowfall has been on the uptick here so there's no reason to believe it won't be at least an OK Winter unless very strong signs start to point otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 14 hours ago, Angrysummons said: east/central based Modoki's with a collapsing -QBO can be pretty warm early on(with periods of cold shots of course) in the cold season and move cold/arctic as you near February. If a Modoki does not form and it ends up neutral.........that could be a problem as it undercuts STJ strength, especially after a La Nina period. We saw that go down in 2001-02 for not so pleasant results for some of us(though, I will readily admit the late January 2002 storm was fascinating, even in the warm sector in Columbus........). I wish the ENSO would make up its mind. We are in late August and things are still ironing themselves out. If we could get a good read there, that would narrow down some variables. Don't recall late Jan 2002 storm. I'm usually pretty good with remembering the good ones, although my aging mind tends to blur specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: I agree it's too early. It's all speculation at this point. Naturally the mainstream public will hear thepathetically watered and dumbed down story that an el nino is likely so that means warmer and drier than normal Winter. But obviously tons of factors come into play. Snowfall has been on the uptick here so there's no reason to believe it won't be at least an OK Winter unless very strong signs start to point otherwise. I'm with you. I'm also not sold on the weight often given to enso state alone, (not to mention the difficulty of being able to predict the correct enso state for the upcoming winter months in advance). Safe call here in Central Ohio is a nickle and diming, (with a 50 cent piece maybe thrown in), to end up with an average snowfall winter. Another yawner but not necessarily a ratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 After all of the rah-rah hype preceding last winter, Nina blah blah... Pac Jet ...SOI....PDO blah blah blah and comparing it to my outcome, I'll just wait until Thanksgiving, thank you. Que sera, sera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 56 minutes ago, IWXwx said: After all of the rah-rah hype preceding last winter, Nina blah blah... Pac Jet ...SOI....PDO blah blah blah and comparing it to my outcome, I'll just wait until Thanksgiving, thank you. Que sera, sera. When I was younger I would get soooo excited for this time of year because it meant winter forecast speculation season! The older I get, however, the more I just tend to look at trends with some amusement and then sit back and watch whatever happens. Amazing how the stress levels go down. Nothing I can do to change the outcome anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 4 hours ago, WxMatt21 said: When I was younger I would get soooo excited for this time of year because it meant winter forecast speculation season! The older I get, however, the more I just tend to look at trends with some amusement and then sit back and watch whatever happens. Amazing how the stress levels go down. Nothing I can do to change the outcome anyway I feel the same way. However, how do you answer the public who wants winter season predictions? I know that you get that question because even in my position I get that a lot. I just answer what indices point to with a disclaimer that it is not my forecast. If you've seen my snowfall contest predictions for the past few years, you know that I don't have a clue. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 So obviously this is a pretty basic way of looking at things, but here are the temperature/precipitation composites for weak, moderate, and strong Nino using the ONI value in DJF. I decided to leave out 1987-88 since that one was an oddball that peaked unusually early (strong, during summer) and was down to weak for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 24, 2018 Share Posted August 24, 2018 Excellent post Hoosier. It shows the difference in strength of ninos. And naturally any one of those years has other circumstances besides just enso strength. It's nice to have the different winters grouped though, that way everyone can look at their local data to see how things were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted August 24, 2018 Share Posted August 24, 2018 On 8/23/2018 at 12:08 PM, IWXwx said: I feel the same way. However, how do you answer the public who wants winter season predictions? I know that you get that question because even in my position I get that a lot. I just answer what indices point to with a disclaimer that it is not my forecast. If you've seen my snowfall contest predictions for the past few years, you know that I don't have a clue. lol Well, I do discuss teleconnections and give them my best educated guess, and management likes us to put together a forecast, but I'm also very transparent about taking long range forecasts with a grain of salt. Trends are easier to nail than specifics, and that's what we try to do. Then you have those viewers who cling to their farmer's almanacs and will let us know if we say anything contrary to that haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 24, 2018 Share Posted August 24, 2018 1 hour ago, WxMatt21 said: Well, I do discuss teleconnections and give them my best educated guess, and management likes us to put together a forecast, but I'm also very transparent about taking long range forecasts with a grain of salt. Trends are easier to nail than specifics, and that's what we try to do. Then you have those viewers who cling to their farmer's almanacs and will let us know if we say anything contrary to that haha! Hi there! I'm from another forum, but I'm checking winter discussions across the boards: So, when ya said almanac, that got my attention because it always baffles me the times during the year when they DO get something right...How in the world do you think are they doing that? (Again, of course it ain't right all the time, but when it does hit it's kinda scary, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 Battle of the almanacs.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 At least we're not in teeth chattering cold on the first one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 25 minutes ago, Hoosier said: At least we're not in teeth chattering cold on the first one Biting cold, stinging cold, and teeth chattering cold. What the hell is this nonsense, these aren't real values Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 52 minutes ago, Stebo said: Biting cold, stinging cold, and teeth chattering cold. What the hell is this nonsense, these aren't real values Yeah, but you run the risk of wearing down your teeth if you're chattering. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: Yeah, but you run the risk of wearing down your teeth if you're chattering. Not good. Yeah that could be bad, though biting cold might be good for the vampires out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 3 hours ago, CoachLB said: Battle of the almanacs.lol I have not seen the Orange one yet, but I saw the yellow one in the store the other day as I was in the check out line so I flipped through. For our region it does show warm and wet with temperatures above normal for each Winter month but it also notes that snowfall will be near normal with several snowy periods. When I used to be more into the almanacs than I am now, I found that the Orange one was better. And no I'm not saying that because it shows a cold snowy Winter lol. When I say better I'm talking about their overall synopsis and summary, obviously the individual days are a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: I have not seen the Orange one yet, but I saw the yellow one in the store the other day as I was in the check out line so I flipped through. For our region it does show warm and wet with temperatures above normal for each Winter month but it also notes that snowfall will be near normal with several snowy periods. When I used to be more into the almanacs than I am now, I found that the Orange one was better. And no I'm not saying that because it shows a cold snowy Winter lol. When I say better I'm talking about their overall synopsis and summary, obviously the individual days are a guess. gosh, I'd hate to be the almanac forecaster in Chicago.... they are riding the border between "biting cold" and "teeth chattering cold". The repercussions between one or the other verifying could wreak havoc on the preparedness of such a large population center. I'm not even going to speculate on the consequences of 'plentiful snow' vs. 'snowy', Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 Here's the September JAMSTEC. I noticed it has the Nino getting into moderate territory. It would be more difficult to get this temp/precip look with a weaker Nino... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: Here's the September JAMSTEC. I noticed it has the Nino getting into moderate territory. It would be more difficult to get this temp/precip look with a weaker Nino... That's not a bad look for this way at all, but all the models are so different and they change so constantly come up the fun is really been sucked out of seasonal forecasting lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 Just food for thought. I like how canada will be filling up with unseasonable cold in the coming weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyweather Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 Just food for thought. I like how canada will be filling up with unseasonable cold in the coming weeks!When they suit me, I’m a fan of positive feedback loops. Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 I know we have all been waiting for it with fervor and anticipation....the always detailed....always in depth....always provocative......Accuweather winter forecast. Again....chock full of metrics enabling precise verification..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 28 minutes ago, iluvsnow said: I know we have all been waiting for it with fervor and anticipation....the always detailed....always in depth....always provocative......Accuweather winter forecast. Again....chock full of metrics enabling precise verification..... "Cold shots" "Cold & Mild Periods" I actually let out an audible chuckle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 What makes them determine that just New Mexico and Colorado are the only two states to experience “Near Normal” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nokywx Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 Really going out on a limb there with "Midseason Rain and Snow" along the West Coast, and "Snow" for the northern Rockies. Quite a bold forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 Not the greatest look but again, wouldn't necessarily mean below average snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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