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Hurricane Lane impacts Hawaii

NJwx85

By NJwx85,
in Tropical Headquarters

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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One plausible outcome is that the storm, always slowly weakening, never makes landfall (as defined by center crossing a coastline) anywhere populated, and drifts south of Kauai by Sunday to west of Kauai by Monday as a tropical storm. This is the GGEM solution and it makes some sense given the position and intensity of the northeast Pacific high. 

That would not rule out cat-1 wind gusts over some central and western portions of the state. I would still say though a 30-40 per cent chance of a hurricane landfall and that most likely to be in Oahu or possibly western Maui. 

But I think the rainfall will be the only major problem and it could be a rather complex pattern given the slow-moving nature of Lane, the rotating bands of moisture, and topography. 

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NJwx85

NJwx85

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8 minutes ago, metalicwx366 said:

I’m seriously having doubts about that 8-12 inches of rain here. Especially if this thing tracks towards Maui/Big Island. We stay on the dry NW side. 

Darby we didn’t get any rainfall until after the storm passed when the flow became southerly. 

We’ll get the rain tonight and tomorrow, unless the center hits Maui.

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catdaddyfalcon15

catdaddyfalcon15

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25 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I’m blaming the time difference and because we have no recon and the storm is weakening.

i didnt think about that, but still it's funny seeing this 9 page thread about a major hurricane potentially landfalling in hawaii ( a true rartity) while winter threads easily fill 50+ pages containing nothing more than wishcasting and banal banter that has nothing to do with the topic at hand

 

going back on topic; how are conditions there currently?

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NJwx85

NJwx85

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2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

I would be shocked if you see conditions as bad as Sandy

Honestly some of the wind gusts so far remind me of that night I was out with my fire department. It’s not on the same level, but it’s so much more intense than normal. 

They shutdown all the pools at 1:00 and put away all the furniture. They told us not to leave the resort or be back before 8pm because the main road in and out of this area is closing.

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NJwx85

NJwx85

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1 minute ago, catdaddyfalcon15 said:

i didnt think about that, but still it's funny seeing this 9 page thread about a major hurricane potentially landfalling in hawaii ( a true rartity) while winter threads easily fill 50+ pages containing nothing more than wishcasting and banal banter that has nothing to do with the topic at hand

 

going back on topic; how are conditions there currently?

We took a walk out to the beach where it’s more exposed and the wind is frequently gusting over 30mph. It’s been dark and overcast most of the day with occasional showers. Nothing heavy so far has made it over the mountain. That will all change when the wind direction becomes more Easterly rather than Northeasterly.

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catdaddyfalcon15

catdaddyfalcon15

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

We took a walk out to the beach where it’s more exposed and the wind is frequently gusting over 30mph. It’s been dark and overcast most of the day with occasional showers. Nothing heavy so far has made it over the mountain. That will all change when the wind direction becomes more Easterly rather than Northeasterly.

ok then. stay safe

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NJwx85

NJwx85

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22 minutes ago, catdaddyfalcon15 said:

ok then. stay safe

Thanks, right now it’s a waiting game. At least I know now for sure that we’re not getting slammed by a major.

Saw a big coast guard plane a few minutes ago, but I know that moved all the air force jets off the island.

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NJwx85

NJwx85

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2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Thanks for updates nj living this one vicariously through you, still have the feeling this will be very memorable event when looking back.

I’ll post as much as I can. My resort has backup generators so we should be okay power wise, unless they get flooded out.

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chitown

chitown

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I just wanted to pop in to say that I only lurk here, but have been glued to this thread along with Reddit for the past few days. I have been to all the major Hawaiian islands, some of them many times, so the places and cities people are talking about are all familiar to me. Having someone there reporting on what is going on has been so compelling. 

I can only imagine how unnerving it would be to ride out a hurricane as a traveler. I will be here lurking a lot during this storm. Thanks for the updates NJwx85. I hope you and your family stay safe, and I hope this storm is not as damaging or destructive as feared.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

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37 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

EAS just went off here, extremely dangerous wind and flooding imminent, leave the area if threatened, from NWS Honolulu.

Gonna need that center to get within 50 miles of the coast to see any kind of real hurricane type winds....rains on the other hand will be biblical for some.  

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  949 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 210NW.

This buoy got very close to if not actually in the eye based on the winds profile and only gusted to 107 mph.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=51002

this sure looks like it took the eye to me winds went from gusting from 93 knts to 5 knts, pressure bottomed out at 956 MB

08 23 11:10 am WSW 3.9 23.3 - - - - 28.50 - - - - - - -
08 23 11:00 am WSW 3.9 15.5 - - - - 28.45 -0.42 - - - - - -
08 23 10:50 am WSW 1.9 11.7 17.1 10 7.6 NNE 28.41 - - - - - - -
08 23 10:40 am WSW 1.9 5.8 17.1 - 7.6 NNE 28.36 - - - - - - -
08 23 10:30 am W 1.9 5.8 - - - - 28.34 - - - - - - -
08 23 10:20 am W 1.9 7.8 - - - - 28.31 - - - - - - -
08 23 10:10 am W 1.9 5.8 - - - - 28.27 - - - - - - -
08 23 10:00 am WNW 3.9 5.8 - - - - 28.26 -0.87 - - - - - -
08 23 9:50 am WNW 1.9 5.8 25.6 10 8.2 NNE 28.25 - - - - - - -
08 23 9:40 am NW 1.9 9.7 25.6 - 8.2 NNE 28.27 - - - - - - -
08 23 9:30 am NW 5.8 21.4 - - - - 28.25 - - - - - - -
08 23 9:20 am NNW 9.7 36.9 - - - - 28.30 - - - - - - -
08 23 9:10 am NNW 25.3 44.7 - - - - 28.34 - - - - - - -
08 23 9:00 am N 38.9 60.2 - - - - 28.35 -0.96 - - - - - -
08 23 8:50 am NNW 48.6 56.3 31.8 11 8.2 ENE 28.37 - - - - - - -
08 23 8:40 am NNW 58.3 85.5 - - - - 28.45 - - - - - - -
08 23 8:30 am N 62.2 93.2 - - - - 28.60 - - - - - - -
08 23 8:20 am NNW 71.9 91.3 - - - - 28.64 - -
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NJwx85

NJwx85

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I’m actually quite surprised by the lack of organized banding showing up on radar. I know the storm is still way out but I expected much more intense looking bands with embedded thunderstorms between here and the center but it’s looking like a big dry slot has taken over.

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