NJwx85 Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 So which is it? Is the Euro better or worse for Ohau? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The Euro track error has been near the middle of the pack. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/ep142018/ The Euro is superior for tropical especially. It nailed Sandy a week out. The GFS still had Sandy backing into Maine the day prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 There is a buoy in the eye that reported a wind gust of over 90 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 Can someone please post Euro rainfall totals? Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 40 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I disagree. The windward side of Kaua’i for example is the wettest place on earth. I have been on Oahu when it rained 6”+ in 12 hours and the only issues were puddles and the ocean turning brown. Tropical islands with steep topography are accustomed to big rain. The islands are made out of volcanic rock which is hard and stays in place. Soils are also thin. I’m sure there will be some isolated flood damage and some power outages. But I think the media is over hyping this one after Maria and PR last year. Nah, I have to disagree with this. This was earlier this year from 3-5 inches of rain in a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 1 minute ago, metalicwx366 said: Nah, I have to disagree with this. This was earlier this year from 3-5 inches of rain in a couple of hours. I figured. Anyone that thinks flash flooding won’t be an issue here doesn’t realize that all that volcanic rock only increases runoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Can someone please post Euro rainfall totals? Thanks in advance Here are the rainfall totals through Sunday. About 5-7 inches of rain for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 7 minutes ago, metalicwx366 said: Here are the rainfall totals through Sunday. About 5-7 inches of rain for us. Wonder why those really high totals stay just offshore. Would think upsloaping here would increase rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 42 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro looks like it has been doing pretty well on track error so far. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/ep142018/ The problem with this graph is the Euro has been bad at the time where it matters most. Euro has shifted from it's solution of keeping Lane a good distance from landfall to the near landfall solution the GFS has been showing for days. It has gone from this... To this... Compared with the GFS 120 hour forecast (and many others with similar results) To this for the Euro now in agreement with the GFS... that's pretty bad performance if you ask me, especially since it's at a critical time where people are at a higher risk. In summary I would say those statistics are pretty meaningless in this scenario since the Euro has consistently been to the south/west of the actual track whereas the GFS has by and large been ahead of the game with picking up the Hawaii threat whereas the Euro just caught on to this recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 Infrared presentation continues to look improved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 Eye becoming much more pronounced, looks like we should see a well defined eye re-emerge the next few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 Sustained winds out of the Northeast at 14mph. Passing shower at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 954 mb and just outside eyewall. Eye may be filled with mid-level cloud debris but it is definitely still intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 954 mb and just outside eyewall. Eye may be filled with mid-level cloud debris but it is definitely still intense. Might not be intensifying, but it’s winning the battle right now against the shear and holding its own. The improvement in presentation in the last 6 hours is a bit disheartening for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 Pretty solid move east on the euro. Not its best moment there. GFS bumped west too. Maui to Oahu are in tough shape hydro wise in addition to the big island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 Noticeabley windier here the last hour or so, still saying sustained at 14mph but we’re frequently gusting to 30+. You can see the difference on the ocean with 2-4’ swells now hitting the protective wall. Still nothing significant but trending in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 Does anyone have the latest aircraft data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Does anyone have the latest aircraft data? They already evacuated ahead of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, Dunkman said: They already evacuated ahead of the storm Damn, thought they might try and run missions from Kauai. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 11am out, kept it at 130mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 they could have done just that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 Distant base refectivity shows a very well-defined eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Damn, thought they might try and run missions from Kauai. Yeah I was pretty bummed that they left so early but I suppose we were fortunate to get recon for the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 Latest advisory said 115kts could be conservative. Confidence is still well below normal. Cloud tops seem to be warming in the northern semi circle and the presentation overall isn’t as good as it was a couple hours ago. Not really seeing any reasons for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 Also looks like latest track takes the center within 100 miles of Ohau, and advisory stated the sudden West hook is dependent on the core decoupling. As I type this, we just had by far our strongest gust yet, probably over 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 The eyewall looks like it is starting to take on a tilted vortex appearance from SSW (LLC) to NNE (MLC) in the directional flow of impeding shear. The CDO also appears to be elongating in that direction as well. This just might be the beginning of faster paced weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 Sustained winds up to 22mph out of the northeast. Frequently gusting over 40 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 1 minute ago, Windspeed said: The eyewall looks like it is starting to take on a tilted vortex appearance from SSW to NNE in the directional flow of impeding shear. The CDO also appears to be elongating in that direction as well. This just might be the beginning of faster paced weakening. It’s funny, as more time goes on, the weather weenie in me wants this to be at least a 2 by the time it gets here. Probably a once in a life time experience of being in the right place at the right time. If this was Florida, we would have probably left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 23, 2018 Author Share Posted August 23, 2018 18z GFS still looks into Maui Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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