the ghost of leroy Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 looking peaked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 22, 2018 Author Share Posted August 22, 2018 18 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 0Z HWRF has the big island getting smacked by the eyewall The big island is barely populated. Maui is populated but most of Hawaii’s population lives on Ohau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 Jesus these people have nowhere to go. I cannot believe the power of this hurricane, thankfully the cooler waters should lessen it a tad before landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 22, 2018 Author Share Posted August 22, 2018 IR looks like ERC underway, but hard to tell. Overall appearance still looking stellar. Edit: Perhaps some southeasterly shear starting to take affect. Outflow seems a bit restricted in that quadrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 GFS op is all on its own. Doesn't seem viable at this moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 4 hours ago, NJwx85 said: IR looks like ERC underway, but hard to tell. Overall appearance still looking stellar. Edit: Perhaps some southeasterly shear starting to take affect. Outflow seems a bit restricted in that quadrant. Yep. You can see the southeasterly shear blowing cloud tops toward the NNE in the lower-left part of the AVN loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 6 hours ago, NJwx85 said: The big island is barely populated. Maui is populated but most of Hawaii’s population lives on Ohau. This is kind of an ignorant post. The big island is the second most populated island, with over 100,000 people. Though HNL is the most populated island, there is still plenty of population and infrastructure on Maui and the Big Island. The central and SW coasts of Maui and the western coast of the Big Island are particularly vulnerable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It'll be interesting to see how things develop over the next few days. I'm withholding judgment right now, but I just get the sense that in the tropical space, the GFS has been awfully outdone by other guidance in the most critical times in the last few years. Obviously, a good forecaster knows when to blend guidance and lean on what they see in the upper level environment to develop an accurate track forecast, but in these really big moments it seems that the GFS has either been lost or really late to the best solution. well the gfs many days ago showed the possibility of lane affecting the islands in a direct way while the euro was following hector track way out to sea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 22, 2018 Author Share Posted August 22, 2018 Down to 155MPH at 5am local time, and track nudged West again. Better for me in terms of wind but worse in terms of rainfall and angle of approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml The 17:30z recon mission just started. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 looks like lane might be intensifying again against all odds.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 5 minutes ago, nycwinter said: looks like lane might be intensifying again against all odds.. Definitely lopsided to the northeast overall, but the CDO and core of the storm has improved some over the past few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 you can see it is fighting shear.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 22, 2018 Author Share Posted August 22, 2018 EAS just activated out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 The axis of stronger wind shear is clearly just west of Lane's core but not advancing or yet encroaching upon the core itself, which is still within a very favorable environment. Barring ongoing consolidation of an outter concentric band forcing an ERC, Lane should hold at least Cat 4 intensity through the next 12 hrs. The CDO is very impressive at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 19 minutes ago, nycwinter said: you can see it is fighting shear.. Not nearly enough to affect a northwardly propagating Catergory 5 during peak season. The models failed to see that an inner core would be established relatively early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 Hawaii is my favorite place. Been to Oahu, Maui and Kawaii, and all are great in their own ways. Great people, amazing food, incredible scenery and insanely nice hotels. Stayed at the Ritz Carlton in Maui, the St. Regis Princeville on Kawaii, and the Halekulani on Oahu in HNL. I actually teared up when i had to leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 Anyone remember? I remember using a site that posted the map for the recon plan with all the points ahead of time. I can't seem to find it now. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 529 NOUS42 KNHC 221645REPRPDWEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.1245 PM EDT WED 22 AUGUST 2018SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z AUGUST 2018TCPOD NUMBER.....18-090I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.3. REMARKS:A. DUE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANELANE AND THE LEAD TIME REQUIRED TO EVACUATEAIRCREW, GROUND CREWS, EQUIPMENT, AND AIRCRAFT,THE WC-130J MISSIONS SCHEDULED ON YESTERDAY'STCPOD 18-089 WILL NOT BE FLOWN.B. THE G-IV MISSION WILL FLY AS SCHEDULED INYESTERDAY'S TCPOD 18-089. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 Lower East Rift Zone - USGS (Big Island) HVO Observation Tower - USGS (Big Island) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Hawaii is my favorite place. Been to Oahu, Maui and Kawaii, and all are great in their own ways. Great people, amazing food, incredible scenery and insanely nice hotels. Stayed at the Ritz Carlton in Maui, the St. Regis Princeville on Kawaii, and the Halekulani on Oahu in HNL. I actually teared up when i had to leave. Same here. Hawaii, specifically the north shore of Oahu is the Mecca for surfers. I have been to the same islands but have spent most of my time there on Oahu. I think hands down the biggest threat is flash flooding. As the core will most likely remain to the south and offshore tropical storm force winds out of the same direction as the trades shouldn’t cause to many problems. The wave impacts will be minimal as the islands are routinely impacted by swells from both the north and occasional South Pacific that are far larger then what a hurricane can produce. (Small fetch area reduces swell generation) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Wettest Euro run for Ohau so far. Lane slows to a crawl just SW of the island. It's likely to be on the low-side of the envelope if/when such a track verifies. I noticed the Euro intensity (SLP) is a bit conservative but I don't have access to the high resolution Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 Visual for those wondering. That is long base range, so not the greatest detail, but the outter banding north of the eyewall doesn't look too organized yet to be choking off the eyewall even if the northern semicircle of the eyewall already has a moat feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 12 minutes ago, Windspeed said: That is long base range, so not the greatest detail, but the outter banding north of the eyewall doesn't look too organized yet to be choking off the eyewall even if the northern semicircle of the eyewall already has a moat feature. I think an ewrc is actually a worse case scenerio for Hawaii. If a larger eye developes it could potentially expand the area of hurricane force winds and impact a larger area. Think Ike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 22, 2018 Author Share Posted August 22, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 Nice sharp moat coming better into view now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 looks like lane has made that turn to the northwest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: I would switch places in a heart beat with you!! Do you have an ocean view? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 The professor can explain it better than I can lolThe proof is in the pudding. I am still confident this does not make landfall or even closest approach as a hurricane regardless of current intensity. As long as the shear axis remains adjacent to the core, Lane will weaken slowly. But as soon as 40-60 kts of mid-level bulk shear impedes, it will decapitate Lane as rapidly as any storm we have ever observed. This still does not downplay the worst hazard by any means however, as Cat 4 or 5 intensity was always going to have no bearing on the end result, which is clearly high rainfall rates on the volcanic terrain and a severe downslope flooding threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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