NJwx85 Posted August 25, 2018 Author Share Posted August 25, 2018 Just now, metalicwx366 said: What kinda winds are you seeing there? We just gusted up to 40MPH. We’ve had some stronger gusts, close to 50. The stronger gusts seem to accompany the rain, so I’m sure if some actual convection can build in we will finally see tropical storm conditions. That bright band offshore is full of 50-60mph sustained wind with some gusts over 70 still embedded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 25, 2018 Author Share Posted August 25, 2018 Earlier I saw what looked like an actual cumulonimbus cloud but it was moving away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 25, 2018 Author Share Posted August 25, 2018 Lane finally showing a pulse the last hour or so as IR indicates some new convection firing to the NE of the LLC as we approach the dirunial maximum. You can see this on radar as a fairly healthy looking band of rain has formed just to the South of Maui and Oahu, generally moving Northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 25, 2018 Share Posted August 25, 2018 njwx's lack of tropical knowledge and spelling is appalling ITT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 25, 2018 Author Share Posted August 25, 2018 23 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said: njwx's lack of tropical knowledge and spelling is appalling ITT I know more than you think, however when your family is directly in the path of a hurricane you tend to look at things differently than you would from thousands of miles away. And secondly, @wxtrix called and wants her grammar police shield back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 25, 2018 Author Share Posted August 25, 2018 Hilo is still getting pounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted August 25, 2018 Share Posted August 25, 2018 Hilo is in bad shape....and it's just crawling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 25, 2018 Author Share Posted August 25, 2018 @metalicwx366 I can smell the rain and visually see a shower passing by to the South now. Even a few sprinkles here. I think a sign of things shifting a bit to a more Southerly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 25, 2018 Share Posted August 25, 2018 15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I know more than you think, however when your family is directly in the path of a hurricane you tend to look at things differently than you would from thousands of miles away. you are at a Disney resort for 40mph gusts and passing showers stop being over dramatic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 25, 2018 Share Posted August 25, 2018 Hawaii dodged the wind bullet, but the rain is still gonna be significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 25, 2018 Author Share Posted August 25, 2018 7 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said: you are at a Disney resort for 40mph gusts and passing showers stop being over dramatic Who’s being dramatic? Yesterday Lane was a category 4 hurricane that was holding its own, obviously the shear was too much to overcome even with how well organized the circulation was. The models were also all over the place, both in terms of track and intensity until this morning. We had reason to be concerned. And the rain and fresh water flash flood potential still remains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted August 25, 2018 Share Posted August 25, 2018 It really is not a good thing wind is what most take so seriously... flooding doesn't get the attention but is far more widespread and destructive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted August 25, 2018 Share Posted August 25, 2018 Unreal amounts in Hilo, just incredible numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 25, 2018 Author Share Posted August 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: It really is not a good thing wind is what most take so seriously... flooding doesn't get the attention but is far more widespread and destructive. The Windward side of the big island is experiencing catastrophic flooding and the forecast here is for lots more rain regardless as to whether or not Lane becomes a remnant low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 25, 2018 Author Share Posted August 25, 2018 Wind has picked up here and the dew point has shot up from 66 to 70 over the last hour. Sustained winds are out of the East at 30mph with gusts to 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 25, 2018 Share Posted August 25, 2018 38 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: @metalicwx366 I can smell the rain and visually see a shower passing by to the South now. Even a few sprinkles here. I think a sign of things shifting a bit to a more Southerly flow. Yep, radar starting to fill in slowly. 0Z GFS and HRRR still showing the potential of some significant rainfall with a heavy band of rain that sets up over the area tomorrow. Sort of reminds me of Darby from 2016 when we got significant flash flooding after the system passed when flow turned southerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted August 25, 2018 Share Posted August 25, 2018 23 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The Windward side of the big island is experiencing catastrophic flooding and the forecast here is for lots more rain regardless as to whether or not Lane becomes a remnant low. Harvey should've taught that lesson, bad wind damage in tiny locale, known for flooding and destruction of wide area from fresh water flooding. Allison is perfect example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 25, 2018 Author Share Posted August 25, 2018 24 minutes ago, metalicwx366 said: Yep, radar starting to fill in slowly. 0Z GFS and HRRR still showing the potential of some significant rainfall with a heavy band of rain that sets up over the area tomorrow. Sort of reminds me of Darby from 2016 when we got significant flash flooding after the system passed when flow turned southerly. Yeah I guess we’ll see. Even under a yellow echo all I got was a few sprinkles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 25, 2018 Author Share Posted August 25, 2018 Not only is the big island still getting pounded by that persistent band, but the band over the ocean is now moving in East and nailing the Leeward side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2018 Share Posted August 25, 2018 They are getting crushed on the big Island. Holy cow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 25, 2018 Share Posted August 25, 2018 Epic rains continue for the Big Island. New record wettest August for Hilo. First summer month to go above 40.00. Rainiest month on record there is December 1954 at 50.82. They typically see the heaviest rains between November and April. Wettest Augusts on Record for Hilo #1....2018....41.61 so far #2....1991....26.92 11:00 pm 8/24/18 Preliminary rain totals on Big Island show 4 stations have reported 40+ inches from #Lane. The highest is Waiakea Uka with 44.88". Flooding remains a primary concern this weekend for some islands. #HIwx 3:47 AM - 25 Aug 2018 NWS update: HILO AIRPORT MEASURED 31.85 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE THREE DAY PERIOD RUNNING FROM 12 MIDNIGHT HST AUGUST 22 THROUGH 1159 PM HST AUGUST 24. THIS BECOMES THE WETTEST THREE DAY PERIOD EVER OBSERVED AT HILO, WITH RECORDS DATING BACK TO 1949. HILO ALSO MEASURED 15.00 INCHES OF RAIN ON AUGUST 24, WHICH WAS THE FIFTH WETTEST CALENDAR DAY ON RECORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 25, 2018 Share Posted August 25, 2018 huge blowup of convection... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 25, 2018 Share Posted August 25, 2018 Not unusual for a sheared TS to have convective bursts. Mid-level shear brings low theta-e air over a moist high theta-e boundary layer, causing convective instability to increase. A convective burst results. The burst can last a few hours, but often results in low theta-e air being dispersed into the boundary layer through downdrafts/microbursts (from the mid-level dry air), stabilizing it. The convection weakens and disappears. Over several hours, the boundary layer recovers and another burst ensues. This can continue so long as there's enough convergence and lift from the old vortex to initiate convection and as long as instability can be regenerated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 25, 2018 Share Posted August 25, 2018 So much wrong with this I don't even know where to begin. This statement in particular: "This event is absolutely baffling, and my fellow meteorologists and I are struggling to theorize what just happened." There is absolutely no way any senior met would make such a statement. People will make up lies about anything these days. 🤪 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted August 25, 2018 Share Posted August 25, 2018 30 minutes ago, Windspeed said: So much wrong with this I don't even know where to begin. That was hard to read through, cringing the whole way and then what sealed it was the ever annoying "We have dodged a huge, huge bullet" line...ugh!! That utterly stupid cliche triggers me each time. I read your post here days ago explaining what would happen to Lane and what did transpire. Quote I am now frantically going back through satellite data and saving GOES-15 imagery at 15-minute intervals for the last 36 hours to archive each frame for further analysis. A senior military meteorologist said this? Doubtful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 25, 2018 Author Share Posted August 25, 2018 It’s called vertical wind shear, not just moderate shear, but borderline strong. This isn’t that unusual at all. Especially when higher terrain comes into play. We’ve seen this before as storms interact with Hispanolia and Cuba. No doubt the higher terrain on the big island accelerated the process. Things are slowly coming back to normal here. Most of the resort services are reopening today and we’re hopeful that the rain stays on the Windward side allowing us to salvage the afternoon at the pool. Right now it’s cloudy, but it clearly rained some overnight as the ground and trees are wet. The wind has decreased to a stiff breeze and the only damage I’ve seen has been to palm trees. The extreme rainfall on the big island is the main story, and Maui and surrounding islands still received impacts. As far as Oahu is concerned, the impacts here have been minimal and many people are feeling as though this was a huge bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 25, 2018 Author Share Posted August 25, 2018 Meanwhile it looks like Hawaii could be threatened again sometime next week. The trough responsible for steering Lane should help to recurve anything that approaches from the East, but we all know how quickly things can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 25, 2018 Share Posted August 25, 2018 Yesterday's 18z GFS (0 hour) area-averaged sounding, showing 53 kt of shear (850mb - 200mb) over Lane. Area-averaged soundings are possible by clicking and dragging on TropicalTidbits.com. So it seems reasonable to say that 40 kt to 50 kt of shear (up to 200mb) detroyed the hurricane core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted August 25, 2018 Share Posted August 25, 2018 Outside of the flooding rains on the big island which was well modeled, this was an historic bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 25, 2018 Share Posted August 25, 2018 49 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Outside of the flooding rains on the big island which was well modeled, this was an historic bust Not particularly, this rapid weakening was well modelled, and while there were hurricane warnings issued(particularly if the storm remained intact longer). The main impact from this storm was never wind nor was the core ever expected to make landfall in the official CPHC forecast. With this being said, the CPHC definitely has some work to do in analyzing intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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