MJO812 Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 The Farmers Almanac says cold and snowy for the northeast while the old farmers almanac says warm and wet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 16 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The Farmers Almanac says cold and snowy for the northeast while the old farmers almanac says warm and wet . In theses times we can’t even get agreement on speculation. Cue the furry caterpillars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 41 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The Farmers Almanac says cold and snowy for the northeast while the old farmers almanac says warm and wet . As much as I like that we all know the Farmers Almanac is more for entertainment purposes then anything else but occasionally they make a score. From everything I have seen so far signs point towards a colder/snowier winter in our region but its still to early to get into specifics and alot can change this far out but I am liking where things seem to be headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 My first call plenty of small event snowfall no big storm unless it happens in December. Frontloaded winter. Warmer than normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 16, 2018 Author Share Posted August 16, 2018 Weak El Nino's are usually great for our area especially if it's west based Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 I think regardless of what form the precipitation takes this winter I expect things to be active, this includes the fall as well. I am hoping we can finally get some good slow moving nor'easters coming up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 if a weak el nino develops the farmers almanac will be right...if a strong el nino develops the old farmers almanac will be right...if a neutral winter develops they both will be wrong...the current streak of winters with at least 30" of snow and a 9" snowfall is five...six with a 9 inch or more...does the streak continue of break?...in August I'm always on the cold and snowy train until reality hits...the reality could be another above normal snow season with normal temperatures... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: Weak El Nino's are usually great for our area especially if it's west based I think all signs point to a very active winter, I don't see the AN snowfall pattern we're in going away. And as we've seen many times, the winter doesn't even have to be cold for us to get the snows though it's more likely than not that this will be a colder season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 Another LI special incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 We need some 12+" snowstorms. With the exception of 2015 and 2010, it's been a decade of smaller to medium storms. We need some actual storms that are predicted to drop more than 12" to actually do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 19, 2018 Share Posted August 19, 2018 On 8/17/2018 at 6:27 AM, TriPol said: We need some 12+" snowstorms. With the exception of 2015 and 2010, it's been a decade of smaller to medium storms. We need some actual storms that are predicted to drop more than 12" to actually do so. I had 2 12”+ storms last winter as did most east and far NW of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 19, 2018 Share Posted August 19, 2018 I seriously don’t want any mega snowstorms, nor do I want any March snowfall, I need a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 19, 2018 Share Posted August 19, 2018 16 minutes ago, Cfa said: I seriously don’t want any mega snowstorms, nor do I want any March snowfall, I need a break. Expect a mega one in early march lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 19, 2018 Share Posted August 19, 2018 First call, LI sees another 40"+ winter, 45"+ from suffolk line out east. NYC sees 35-40", the far NW burbs will do well 55-60+, and the immediate NJ suburbs will get 25-30". SW CT will get crushed as usual. JFK will probably record 18" as the measurements are taken from Jamaica Bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 19, 2018 Share Posted August 19, 2018 On 8/17/2018 at 6:27 AM, TriPol said: We need some 12+" snowstorms. With the exception of 2015 and 2010, it's been a decade of smaller to medium storms. We need some actual storms that are predicted to drop more than 12" to actually do so. January 2016...it melted so fast it's hard to remember... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 19, 2018 Share Posted August 19, 2018 these are the years Since 1960 that had a snowfall 9" or more in Central Park......12" storms added... year............9" storms...12" storms... 1959-60.....2....................2 1960-61.....3....................2 1963-64.....1....................1 1966-67.....2....................1 1968-69.....1....................1 1977-78.....2....................2 1978-79.....1....................1 1981-82.....1....................0 1982-83.....1....................1 1992-93.....1....................0 1993-94.....2....................1 1994-95.....1....................0 1995-96.....2....................1 2000-01.....1....................1 2002-03.....1....................1 2003-04.....2....................1 2004-05.....1....................1 2005-06.....1....................1 2009-10.....3....................1 2010-11.....3....................2 2012-13.....1....................0 2013-14.....2....................1 2014-15.....1....................0 2015-16.....1....................1 2016-17.....1....................0 2017-18.....1....................0 9" storms... 1960's........5 years.....9 storms... 1970's........2 years.....3 storms... 1980's........2 years.....2 storms... 1990's........4 years.....6 storms... 2000's........5 years.....6 storms... 2010's........8 years.....13 storms... 12" storms... 1960's........5 years.....7 storms... 1970's........2 years.....3 storms,,, 1980's........1 year.......1 storm... 1990's........2 years.....2 storms... 2000's........5 years.....5 storms... 2010's........4 years.....5 storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted August 22, 2018 Share Posted August 22, 2018 Little help guys ,,,,didn't we have El nino the past 2 years ? Or am I wrong ? I honestly was not aware that they could be weak or moderate or anything else,,,,can someone explain it SIMPLY if possible for US who are less informed? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 Let's spice things up and do another 2011-12. Nickle-and-diming my way to AN has been great this decade but sometimes you just need to get buried... even if it means piña coladas the rest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 9 hours ago, Juliancolton said: Let's spice things up and do another 2011-12. Nickle-and-diming my way to AN has been great this decade but sometimes you just need to get buried... even if it means piña coladas the rest of the season. Nah I’m good lol. I’ll go for a 15-16 again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 18 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Little help guys ,,,,didn't we have El nino the past 2 years ? Or am I wrong ? I honestly was not aware that they could be weak or moderate or anything else,,,,can someone explain it SIMPLY if possible for US who are less informed? Thanks No it was a weak La Niña last winter and a near neutral the winter before, perhaps a very weak La Niña early in 16-17. Well ahead of last winter there was some belief a weak El Niño might develop but by May or June of 2017 it was evident that possibility was over. Neither winter really behaved as expected. The near neutral 16-17 behaved very much like a raging El Niño or raging La Niña in December which most blamed on either the MJO or a lag effect of the strong El Niño. 17-18 more resembled a weak El Niño at times with a fairly snowy winter in the south and Tennessee valley. About the only guarantee I have right now is mid October into early November will be cooler than normal and then mid to late November will flip which seems to occur most of the time in any El Niño. The question always is what happen after 12/5. The better El Niño years will flip cold again around that time while the bad ones never do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 48 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: No it was a weak La Niña last winter and a near neutral the winter before, perhaps a very weak La Niña early in 16-17. Well ahead of last winter there was some belief a weak El Niño might develop but by May or June of 2017 it was evident that possibility was over. Neither winter really behaved as expected. The near neutral 16-17 behaved very much like a raging El Niño or raging La Niña in December which most blamed on either the MJO or a lag effect of the strong El Niño. 17-18 more resembled a weak El Niño at times with a fairly snowy winter in the south and Tennessee valley. About the only guarantee I have right now is mid October into early November will be cooler than normal and then mid to late November will flip which seems to occur most of the time in any El Niño. The question always is what happen after 12/5. The better El Niño years will flip cold again around that time while the bad ones never do Much appreciated SnowGoose,,,,,Thank You Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 23, 2018 Share Posted August 23, 2018 How about a contest to predict the next BN month in these parts? April is our last memory of a BN month, and the CFS does not even hint at one right now for the next 9 months, for a total of 13 straight. Surely this must be wrong! I was going to choose Feb. myself, maybe a SSW in Jan. will kickstart things. But the populated areas in the NH, as shown on the monthly summaries, seem Normal or Above with little blue ever showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted August 24, 2018 Share Posted August 24, 2018 At least one area-wide 12"+ event since it's the 2010's and that's just what we do now I guess. At least 4 events that hit parts of the area for 6"+. Mid-loaded winter starting around mid-January, cold and dry March. Warm December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted August 24, 2018 Share Posted August 24, 2018 Weak El Nino Modoki...check. Warm Atlantic SST...check. Solar minimum...check. End result...95-96 redux. Go big or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 25, 2018 Share Posted August 25, 2018 there have been a few weak el nino winters with very little snow so the other indices have to cooperate...even with most of the indices favorable snowfall could be light...40" snowfall seasons were rare before the 1994...now even with record February warmth and a positive ao and nao NYC still managed to pick up above normal snowfall...all good things come to an end and a winter like 2001-02 can happen again...hopefully not this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 25, 2018 Share Posted August 25, 2018 On 8/19/2018 at 11:38 AM, dmillz25 said: Expect a mega one in early march lol Of course lol. It seems like all roads (or teleconnections) lead towards above normal snowfall lately. I just want a 2011-12 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 25, 2018 Share Posted August 25, 2018 my fantasy winter weekly...... Nov. 18-24.......1989.....5" on the 23rd... Nov. 25-Dec 1 1967.....3" on 11/30..... Dec. 2-8...........2003.....14" on 12/6-7th... Dec. 9-15.........1960.....blizzard on the 11-12th... Dec. 16-22.......1948.....16" storm on the 19-20th... Dec. 23-29.......1947.....26" of snow 12/26th......settle for 2010 Dec. 30-Jan. 5 2018.....10" blizzard on the 4th....... Jan. 6-12.........1996.....20" blizzard 1/7-8... Jan. 13-19.......1964.....13" blizzard 1/13..... Jan. 20-26.......2016.....27" blizzard 1/24... Jan. 27-Feb. 2 2011.....19" storm on the 26-27th Feb. 3-9...........1961.....18" storm on the 3rd-4th...settle for 1978... Feb. 10-16.......2006.....27" storm 11-12th.....settle for 1983... Feb. 17-23.......2003.....19" storm on the 16-17th... Feb. 24-Mar 2 2010......21" storm on the 25-26th... Mar. 3-9...........1960......15" blizzard on the 3-4th... Mar. 10-16......1993.......10" snow/sleet/rain on the 13th...record cold... Mar. 17-23......1956.......12" storm on the 19-20th... Mar. 24-30......1984.......3" slush on the 28-29th...settle for 1970... Mar. 31-Apr 6 1982.......10" blizzard on the 6th... Apr. 7-13.........2003.......4-7" on the 7th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted August 26, 2018 Share Posted August 26, 2018 8 hours ago, uncle W said: my fantasy winter weekly...... Nov. 18-24.......1989.....5" on the 23rd... Nov. 25-Dec 1 1967.....3" on 11/30..... Dec. 2-8...........2003.....14" on 12/6-7th... Dec. 9-15.........1960.....blizzard on the 11-12th... Dec. 16-22.......1948.....16" storm on the 19-20th... Dec. 23-29.......1947.....26" of snow 12/26th......settle for 2010 Dec. 30-Jan. 5 2018.....10" blizzard on the 4th....... Jan. 6-12.........1996.....20" blizzard 1/7-8... Jan. 13-19.......1964.....13" blizzard 1/13..... Jan. 20-26.......2016.....27" blizzard 1/24... Jan. 27-Feb. 2 2011.....19" storm on the 26-27th Feb. 3-9...........1961.....18" storm on the 3rd-4th...settle for 1978... Feb. 10-16.......2006.....27" storm 11-12th.....settle for 1983... Feb. 17-23.......2003.....19" storm on the 16-17th... Feb. 24-Mar 2 2010......21" storm on the 25-26th... Mar. 3-9...........1960......15" blizzard on the 3-4th... Mar. 10-16......1993.......10" snow/sleet/rain on the 13th...record cold... Mar. 17-23......1956.......12" storm on the 19-20th... Mar. 24-30......1984.......3" slush on the 28-29th...settle for 1970... Mar. 31-Apr 6 1982.......10" blizzard on the 6th... Apr. 7-13.........2003.......4-7" on the 7th... In one season that would be over 300 inches of snow. Considering Central Park measurement accuracy it would probably be over 400 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted August 26, 2018 Share Posted August 26, 2018 On 8/23/2018 at 5:58 PM, CIK62 said: How about a contest to predict the next BN month in these parts? April is our last memory of a BN month, and the CFS does not even hint at one right now for the next 9 months, for a total of 13 straight. Surely this must be wrong! I was going to choose Feb. myself, maybe a SSW in Jan. will kickstart things. But the populated areas in the NH, as shown on the monthly summaries, seem Normal or Above with little blue ever showing. 13 straight isn't even anywhere close to our stretch of 20 months AN at KHPN from March 2011 to October 2012, so it is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 26, 2018 Share Posted August 26, 2018 DT (Wxrisk) has posted an early winter preview video for the upcoming 2018-19 winter season. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6fT7Ge7mWE&feature=youtu.be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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