Invest 99L

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

A blossoming tropical wave the last few days has gained the attention of the experts at the NHC with a 10% chance at development next 48 hours and 20% at development next 5 days.  This is a good sign as these are the first numbers associated with a wave they expect big things from.  Although current latitude is a little low around 8N: 49.5W, that is the location where I expect the new low-level circulation will become dominant with this wave the next few days as it tracks towards the eastern Caribbean Sea.  If it gains development faster and latitude faster than it could miss the shear zone and become quite intense.

[yoda]

Lol did you read the 8pm TWO or not?

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Lol did you read the 8pm TWO or not?

Yes why?

[yoda]

LOL

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located about 500 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Island continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Development, if any, of this system
should be slow to occur during the next day or two while it moves
west-northwestward around 15 mph toward the Windward Islands.  By
late Saturday, unfavorable environmental conditions should limit the
chances for additional development while the system moves over the
eastern Caribbean Sea.  Regardless of development, this system is
likely to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Lesser
Antilles later today and this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi