tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 hr 84 sub 1004 50 miles south of cape fear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Hmm...starts a tad earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 hr 90 sub 996 50 miles east of hse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 hr 99 sub 984 bout 150-200 miles east of mouth of ches bay...coastal area getting some mod preicp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 its exactly like the 12z basically despite the better changes at h5. Reason why its way faster than 12z...you slow this to 12z gfs speed this would be closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This run is close on getting nyc to warnning critiera snow...jersey shore and li hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 considering the look here at 500mb....the surface low seems to be too far displaced to the SE. Any comments from the mets...I know something similar was mentioned on the 12z model thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 sounds promising to me and of course there's plenty of time for it to get its stuff together This run is close on getting nyc to warnning critiera snow...jersey shore and li hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'll take this..... Thanks Santa! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 My thoughts on the 18z GFS: While the surface depiction is very close, I like that the trough goes negative quicker on the 18z. At 00z Monday, the 12z is still positive, but the 18z is about neutral. I'll take that as a small shift in the right direction. A few more small steps and we're in very nice shape with the GFS. I'll walk away from 18z happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 18z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 My thoughts on the 18z GFS: While the surface depiction is very close, I like that the trough goes negative quicker on the 18z. At 00z Monday, the 12z is still positive, but the 18z is about neutral. I'll take that as a small shift in the right direction. A few more small steps and we're in very nice shape with the GFS. I'll walk away from 18z happy. Precip maps are nearly identical, too. Might even be slightly wetter at 12z. I think it looks better aloft though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 18z 12z Precip shield further west but man those are some tight gradients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I have a feeling 00z tonight is going to make a lot of people happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 considering the look here at 500mb....the surface low seems to be too far displaced to the SE. Any comments from the mets...I know something similar was mentioned on the 12z model thread. There is often a lag between the model picking up on changes at the upper levels and surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I have a feeling 00z tonight is going to make a lot of people happy. Agree, I think the GFS shift is waiting until 00z tonight. H5 is world's better than the past several runs though. Major steps in the right direction today folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Precip shield further west but man those are some tight gradients. That map and track 75 miles west of where it is now roughly triples 15 million people's snow accums, and based on the upper air depictions it's a very plausible scenario. The fact that modelling so strongly seems to be shifting in the Euro's direction is quite alarming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Although sporting "Storm Wood" right now I am really concerned as it will not take much for it to all go down the crapper so to speak. But man if it all falls into place.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That map and track 75 miles west of where it is now roughly triples 15 million people's snow accums, and based on the upper air depictions it's a very plausible scenario. The fact that modelling so strongly seems to be shifting in the Euro's direction is quite alarming. Why is it alarming Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Dare I say the trend is our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Although sporting "Storm Wood" right now I am really concerned as it will not take much for it to all go down the crapper so to speak. But man if it all falls into place.......... I think we are in a very good spot for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Why is it alarming Lol. It's alarming b/c basically every other model ditched yesterday but the Euro held steady. Now we're seeing all models trend back to the Euro, whihc has been consistent for 2-3 days now. If this storm verifies I've got to give the Euro a helluva lot of credit for persistence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I think we are in a very good spot for this one. That's what worries me Jason Lol. Been here way too many times. I will admit this one is really coming together for us. If it hits I will be out in it camera in hand, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The ECMWF has had a bias of overamplifying east coast storms since its upgrade a few years ago, but to see the model run after run (what is it - 6 now?) with a massive low on the EC, tells you something. There's a very strong signal being detected here and now the rest of the guidance is apparently seeing it, albeit slower than the euro caught on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It's alarming b/c basically every other model ditched yesterday but the Euro held steady. Now we're seeing all models trend back to the Euro, whihc has been consistent for 2-3 days now. If this storm verifies I've got to give the Euro a helluva lot of credit for persistence. True but nothing to be alarmed about IMO. When it's right it's hard to argue with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 What time will the 00z be out about? 1030-1045? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 True but nothing to be alarmed about IMO. When it's right it's hard to argue with it. I think he mean "alarming" in a good way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It's alarming b/c basically every other model ditched yesterday but the Euro held steady. Now we're seeing all models trend back to the Euro, whihc has been consistent for 2-3 days now. If this storm verifies I've got to give the Euro a helluva lot of credit for persistence. It's comforting knowing what you described above is typical. Even with the last "storm," the Euro may have showed it as a hit once or twice, but ultimately it gave up on it around this time frame and was persistent about it, and all the other models that were showing storm (GFS namely) trended towards it. That, and that fact the Euro has showed this for six runs makes me feel that good snow will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 18z GEFS out to 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 18z 12z Yup, and look at that big white area of nothing back where I live. I certainly hope it's not the GFS that ends up verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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