joey Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 NAM 18z looks much better than 12z. Northern stream is stronger- southern stream is stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I am not getting optimistic until tmagan posts the KMA O.K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Imagine the amount of warnings you'd see on the Jersey coast if this solution verified Blizzard Warning High Wind Warning Storm Warning Blowing Snow Warning Coastal Flood Warning am I missing anything? No blowing snow warning. Not sure if they'd coalesce the High WInd and Blizzard Warnings into a simple Blizzard Warning, but they might. I've heard of that being done before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 O.K. That looks too east, right? BTW, no haven't seen anyone post the JMA. How is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 i know the words triple and the Ph... has been thrown around, but i was wondering if we could get some clarity? With the EURO's depiction, is that what we're looking at here? strickly going by th eeuro solution ( NOT A FORECAST) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I cannot wait till the 00z runs tonight. The trends have been promising all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 18Z NAM at 54 hours has noticeably more H5 height rises in the east ahead of the digging trough as compared to the 12Z GFS at 60 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That looks too east, right? BTW, no haven't seen anyone post the JMA. How is that? Same as the KMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 18z model runs coming out, thread heating up fast! Looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Sorry if its been posted already but looks like Upton's discussion is updated 305 PM EST WED DEC 22 2010 .SYNOPSIS... -- Changed Discussion --A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND EAST THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CHRISTMAS EVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST CHRISTMAS NIGHT...THEN INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.-- End Changed Discussion -- .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --BIG QUESTION THIS TIME FRAME IS HOW QUICKLY UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF AND AMPLIFIES...WHICH WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT AND SFC LOW TRACK AND STRENGTH. WILL FOLLOW HPC GUIDANCE...WITH A SFC LOW TRACK BETWEEN OPERATIONAL NEW AND PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF AND OP GFS. THIS TRACK HAS SUPPORT FROM MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. BEST GUESS FOR THIS FORECAST IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER TRACK THAN OP ECMWF...AND JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. NEED TO EMPHASIZE THAT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...AND A SHIFT EAST OR WEST WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON FORECAST...BUT TIMING IS BECOMING MORE CERTAIN...WITH A DELAY INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SFC LOW INITIALLY SOUTH INTO THE GULF WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD A POSITION OFF THE MID ATLC/SE COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS DEPENDS ON AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW. POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO LAYER POPS FROM HIGHEST S/SE TO LOWEST N/NW. FWIW...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF 1/2 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH OF QPF...HIGHEST EAST. NEW OP ECMWF QUITE WET. FOR NOW WILL CAP POPS IN OUR CWA AT HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY FOR NOW. AS FOR TEMPS...COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW BELOW NORMAL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRAVERSE TO THE EAST WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE. WILL END ANY PRECIP CHANCES BY TUESDAY...AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE WEST.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 it looks much better, especially at h7 and h85.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I would love for Hurricane Schwartz to pop into this thread and give us his opinions. I know he's posted in our subforum before, and I think he's one of the best in Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Very, very exciting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 wow- look at that streak about to drop into the upper plains.... Very, very exciting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 it didnt end very well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 wow- look at that streak about to drop into the upper plains.... That be our diggin' shovel. Better hope it comes to play! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 just curious what kind of surface winds would be depicted over the area with euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 The NAM is way more amplified with the trough in general..including the heights on the east coast and the energy diving into the Plains..when compared to the GFS. With the GFS being a glancing blow..the NAM may very well bring this up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The NAM is way more amplified with the trough in general..including the heights on the east coast and the energy diving into the Plains..when compared to the GFS. With the GFS being a glancing blow..the NAM may very well bring this up the coast. Actually... NAM doesn't look great. It is the 18Z NAM, so I don't care, but it is way too positively tilted and has too much of an easterly component to the trough digging through the plains. This solution would still be way OTS. Positive trend from 12Z? Perhaps, but it still would suck in the end. Personally I don't think it matters, NAM will come around sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 it didnt end very well.... no it didn't. it's trying but verbatim the 18z nam would be a whiff I believe, because although it may go neutral negative, base of the trough is going to be pretty far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 just curious what kind of surface winds would be depicted over the area with euro. from jmister: According to the 12z Euro, 10m winds are sustained at 50-55kt along the NJ coast and LI. Even 35kt around PHL at hour 114. 10m wind gusts get up to 55-60kt around the PHL area and closer to 70kt along the coast! Extremely impressive storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The NAM is way more amplified with the trough in general..including the heights on the east coast and the energy diving into the Plains..when compared to the GFS. With the GFS being a glancing blow..the NAM may very well bring this up the coast. It doesn't look terribly different from the 12z GFS. I don't think it would be any further east than the GFS, which is fine at this stage of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Actually... It's definitely better than the 12z GFS if you ask me, at 90 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The NAM is way more amplified with the trough in general..including the heights on the east coast and the energy diving into the Plains..when compared to the GFS. With the GFS being a glancing blow..the NAM may very well bring this up the coast. There are aspects of each model that I prefer. The NAM has slightly higher heights along the east coast and is a hair further west with the trof axis. But the GFS has a sharper trof as opposed to the NAM's more broad curvature, and better shortwave timing - on the NAM, the first piece is slightly faster, and 2nd piece slightly slower. But the two are close enough and both threatening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 It doesn't look terribly different from the 12z GFS. I don't think it would be any further east than the GFS, which is fine at this stage of the game. The NAM is 200 miles further west with the shortwave energy digging into the N Plains and also further northwest with amplification on the east coast. GFS http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_090s.gif NAM http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_500_084s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The NAM is 200 miles further west with the shortwave energy digging into the N Plains and also further northwest with amplification on the east coast. GFS http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_090s.gif NAM http://www.nco.ncep....am_500_084s.gif I agree with both points. At worst it's the GFS. Probably a bit further west if it were to play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 from jmister: According to the 12z Euro, 10m winds are sustained at 50-55kt along the NJ coast and LI. Even 35kt around PHL at hour 114. 10m wind gusts get up to 55-60kt around the PHL area and closer to 70kt along the coast! Extremely impressive storm Very interesting. It has been quite some time since we have seen winds like that accompany a snow storm. Let's hope future runs of the Euro stay the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This is a little off topic but they have already brined the roads up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The NAM is 200 miles further west with the shortwave energy digging into the N Plains and also further northwest with amplification on the east coast. GFS http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_090s.gif NAM http://www.nco.ncep....am_500_084s.gif Yes, further west but also later and at an angle that promotes broadening instead of sharpening and tilting. It's kind of a wash. But the NAM looks a bit better than I expected and moderately good overall. When it finally shows a hit tomorrow the QPF is going to look insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yes, further west but also later and at an angle that promotes broadening instead of sharpening and tilting. It's kind of a wash. But the NAM looks a bit better than I expected and moderately good overall. When it finally shows a hit tomorrow the QPF is going to look insane. The big picture on the NAM is that it's not perfect, but better, and trended toward the Euro. Good enuf. Think we can all be happy with that at 100 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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