ptb127 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Clearly the GFS is trending close to the euro... I don't think there needs to be a compromise right now(maybe some weenie in me).. I'll be more interested once all the s/w's come into the better data gathering areas to see if the they can have a consensus. A surface compromise between the 12z Euro and GFS would yield a mid 970s low in the NYC/NJ money zone. This is an invalid exercise, but somewhat comforting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Anyone think Thundersnow is possible from this event? Yeah, I think the model shows it from hour 118 and a a half through hour 123. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I just get the Skew-t data from accuweather pro. There are other places too, but probably not free. I can look something up for you if you want. Holy cow!! That is nuts. Is there a source to get ECMWF soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Clearly the GFS is trending close to the euro... I don't think there needs to be a compromise right now(maybe some weenie in me).. I'll be more interested once all the s/w's come into the better data gathering areas to see if the they can have a consensus. About 1:30 AM the Euro should have all the players on the field, i.e. on land, so this is one run where everything can go screwy fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 So forgive the weenie-like question, because I'm still relatively new to looking at models and extrapolating from them, but what does this 12z run bore out to regarding ratios from the South Jersey (2+ qpf) to the Pottstown (1.5 qpf) area? Would we still see relatively similar totals across this area due to higher ratios in the west? A lot of the totals are influenced by where the most intense banding occurs, and where a potential 'pivot' might occur. On the far western side of the main deformation band, sometimes totals can be suppressed, while closest to the center of low pressure can be at risk of dryslotting. The qpf readout at this point is really 'potential' in that there is sufficient precipitation on the model to give that readout. Your location could receive a 'lollipop' of 24 inches while other places might only get 14 inches, as an example. It should be interesting to see how the models handle the live data input from stationary arrays and weather balloons. Tonights runs should be very interesting indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 A surface compromise between the 12z Euro and GFS would yield a mid 970s low in the NYC/NJ money zone. This is an invalid exercise, but somewhat comforting. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro ensembles have this look. A SLP slightly NE of the OP (and deepening later) would benefit the tri-state area. But such an ideal solution also puts us closer to a miss, so the Euro as shown is easily acceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 You forgot milk and bread warning. And the bust warning. Somebody coughing near the MS River could screw up the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 So forgive the weenie-like question, because I'm still relatively new to looking at models and extrapolating from them, but what does this 12z run bore out to regarding ratios from the South Jersey (2+ qpf) to the Pottstown (1.5 qpf) area? Would we still see relatively similar totals across this area due to higher ratios in the west? yes most likely, coastal nj may see some mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 And the bust warning. Somebody coughing near the MS River could screw up the phase. Yep, you got it John. And if this storm doesn't happen the NWS may need to issue suicide warnings and dare I say psychotherapy advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 What time do the Euro ensembles come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yep, you got it John. And if this storm doesn't happen the NWS may need to issue suicide warnings and dare I say psychotherapy advisories. Aw...the infamous weenie suicide warnings and watches...model trends away from big snow may cause radar hallucinations...mass frustration...and perhaps driving cars off of bridges. Caution be advised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Am I the only one who is not very excited yet simply because we are still 5 days out. So much can trend in 5 days that I'm just not putting myself on alert unless this same solution is still being shown on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Am I the only one who is not very excited yet simply because we are still 5 days out. So much can trend in 5 days that I'm just not putting myself on alert unless this same solution is still being shown on Friday. You're not alone. I'm also not excited because I'm more inland and well away from even the EURO's position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Am I the only one who is not very excited yet simply because we are still 5 days out. So much can trend in 5 days that I'm just not putting myself on alert unless this same solution is still being shown on Friday. yea i agree with you. I mean we are below the 5 days mark, more like 4 right now. With phasing storms one little change can send this somewhere else. I like where things stand right now imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Am I the only one who is not very excited yet simply because we are still 5 days out. So much can trend in 5 days that I'm just not putting myself on alert unless this same solution is still being shown on Friday. I'm with you. I'm cautiously optimistic. But we have seen things change many times when the SW gets sampled better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 You're not alone. I'm also not excited because I'm more inland and well away from even the EURO's position. It was one of the lessons 2000-2001 taught me. I love the potential, just hard to work me up like models used to. I'm still watching for the La-nina north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It was one of the lessons 2000-2001 taught me. I love the potential, just hard to work me up like models used to. I'm still watching for the La-nina north trend. Shouldn't we be far more concerned though about OTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Shouldn't we be far more concerned though about OTS? That is part of it. Basically the low forming more downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 EC ensembles are coming in more amped up and west of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The Euro ops is no longer a borderline outlier at 12z. The ensemble mean would be pretty destructive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This is... either going to happen with amazing model consistency from 4 days out, or some people who are getting excited over this are going to be disappointed. I will admit, I am way more excited about this now than I know I should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The Euro ops is no longer a borderline outlier at 12z. The ensemble mean would be pretty destructive. If the euro ensembles are converging on a hit, and the GFS ensembles all looked pretty close too, that is a very strong signal at this range, IMO. If hits continue on the major models at 00Z tonight, it is still early but our chances will increase quite a bit for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Am I the only one who is not very excited yet simply because we are still 5 days out. So much can trend in 5 days that I'm just not putting myself on alert unless this same solution is still being shown on Friday. Normally I would be getting excited started tomorrow but I'm supposed to be flying to Central America on Monday... Cheers Howie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 If the euro ensembles are converging on a hit, and the GFS ensembles all looked pretty close too, that is a very strong signal at this range, IMO. If you combine all the model action/trends today so far, I would say on a scale of 1-10, 1 being worst 10 being best, probably dealing with a 7 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Am I the only one who is not very excited yet simply because we are still 5 days out. So much can trend in 5 days that I'm just not putting myself on alert unless this same solution is still being shown on Friday. Cautious optimism is the best right now. I like the fact the Euro is so consistent, and its ensembles are west again. GFS looked better, and the UKMet looked better. GGEM was the only one slightly worse for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It was one of the lessons 2000-2001 taught me. I love the potential, just hard to work me up like models used to. I'm still watching for the La-nina north trend. I am not getting optimistic until tmagan posts the KMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Am I the only one who is not very excited yet simply because we are still 5 days out. So much can trend in 5 days that I'm just not putting myself on alert unless this same solution is still being shown on Friday. Yeah, and I agree with Friday being the day to jump on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Am I the only one who is not very excited yet simply because we are still 5 days out. So much can trend in 5 days that I'm just not putting myself on alert unless this same solution is still being shown on Friday. Actually, we're only four days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I am not getting optimistic until tmagan posts the KMA errr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I am not getting optimistic until tmagan posts the KMA What happened to the supersecret LWX model we clung to a few times last year? What's it say? I do want to point out that the GFS was putting out QPF numbers at 180 hrs that were prettty similar to the EURO ensembles today. As I may have said here before, when we've gotten noreastres this fall, the GFS was pretty good QPF wise in the Day 7 period and then would lose the solution, often not getting to its final solution until 48 hours out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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